WTNT41 KNHC 150234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
 
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY.  THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 23.9N  91.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.8N  92.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N  94.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  96.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 27.8N  98.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 150246
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
 
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY.  THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 23.9N  91.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.8N  92.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N  94.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  96.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 27.8N  98.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 150832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED. 
EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTERS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME RELOCATION MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9.  THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER
TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED. 
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.  STILL...THE CURRENT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  EVEN IF
THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT
WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.  ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 24.6N  91.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.3N  93.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.4N  95.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.3N  97.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 28.0N  98.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 

WTNT45 KNHC 151438
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-
KNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 25.4N  93.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.8N  95.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  97.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

