WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 150243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM.  THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.6N  85.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W    65 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 150840
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.
 
KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DEPARTED.

KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.

KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
ALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
BY 120 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.6N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 152032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR
INDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
THIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE
NO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE...AND THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION ON THE LEFT.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW
FORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST
MOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES...WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
36 HR.
 
KARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR. 
ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE HWRF...WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAS CONSISTENTLY
KEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
70 KT...BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND
72 HR FORECAST POINTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.0N  89.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N  90.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N  92.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N  94.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.3N  95.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 160239
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
 
DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN
EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH
PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.
 
KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.4N  90.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N  92.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N  93.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  97.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 160859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
 
THE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND
0400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
LAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
WIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER. 
KARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ALSO...
GIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL
LIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO. 
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE
TIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED
AND SHIFTED SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N  91.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 161224
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI.  THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1230Z 19.7N  92.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N  93.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N  94.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  96.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    75 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 161455
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH
SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO
A 65-KT HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. 
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS...
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD
GET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT
IN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND
OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 162045
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
 
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS
STRENGTHENING.  A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM
THE SFMR.  IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL
SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 70 KT.
 
KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE
LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A
SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A
85 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
96 HR IF NOT SOONER.
 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO
36 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.6N  93.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 170240
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 85 KNOTS.  THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS.
 
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 19.7N  94.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N  95.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N  96.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 170837
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.  KARL STILL HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS.  KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  95.3W   105 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.3W   120 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 171447
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
KARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED.  IN ADDITION...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 967 MB.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT.  THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.
 
KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES
TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 19.4N  95.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.2N  96.9W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 19.1N  98.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 19.1N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 172031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
ABOUT 1630Z.  BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE
FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE
NOT READILY APPARENT.  DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS
SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE LANDFALL
THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 19.1N  96.6W    80 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 18.8N  97.7W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 18.7N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 180232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
 
KARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY
WEAKENED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY
DISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE
ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30
KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
KARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 18.6N  97.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  98.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT
12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT
24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT
96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000

WTNT43 KNHC 150243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM.  THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.6N  85.5W    40 KT
12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W    50 KT
24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W    35 KT
48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    50 KT
72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W    65 KT
96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000

WTNT43 KNHC 150840
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.

KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000

WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DEPARTED.

KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.

KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
ALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
BY 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.6N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W    45 KT
48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W    60 KT
72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W    75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000

WTNT43 KNHC 152032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR
INDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
THIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE
NO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE...AND THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION ON THE LEFT.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW
FORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST
MOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES...WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
36 HR.

KARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR.
ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE HWRF...WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAS CONSISTENTLY
KEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF
70 KT...BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND
72 HR FORECAST POINTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.0N  89.4W    40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N  90.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N  92.7W    35 KT
36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N  94.4W    50 KT
48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.3N  95.7W    65 KT
72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000

WTNT43 KNHC 160239
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

DESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN
EYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
VIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH
PREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.

KARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.4N  90.7W    35 KT
12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N  92.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N  93.8W    50 KT
36HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    55 KT
48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  97.5W    65 KT
72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000

WTNT43 KNHC 160859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND
0400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
LAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
WIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER.
KARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ALSO...
GIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL
LIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE
TIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED
AND SHIFTED SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N  91.6W    45 KT
12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W    55 KT
24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W    60 KT
36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    70 KT
48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




WTNT43 KNHC 161224
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI.  THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1230Z 19.7N  92.2W    55 KT
12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N  93.7W    65 KT
24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N  94.5W    75 KT
36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  96.8W    85 KT
48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT43 KNHC 161455
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH
SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO
A 65-KT HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS...
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD
GET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT
IN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND
OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT
12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT
24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT
36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT
48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000

WTNT43 KNHC 162045
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS
STRENGTHENING.  A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM
THE SFMR.  IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL
SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE
LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A
SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A
85 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
96 HR IF NOT SOONER.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO
36 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.6N  93.7W    70 KT
12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W    75 KT
24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W    85 KT
36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT43 KNHC 172031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
ABOUT 1630Z.  BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE
FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE
NOT READILY APPARENT.  DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS
SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE LANDFALL
THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 19.1N  96.6W    80 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     18/0600Z 18.8N  97.7W    50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     18/1800Z 18.7N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000

WTNT43 KNHC 180232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

KARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY
WEAKENED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY
DISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE
ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30
KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/0300Z 18.6N  97.4W    30 KT
12HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  98.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000

WTNT43 KNHC 180830
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KARL HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 18.5N  97.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

