WTNT42 KNHC 080314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010
 
DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO
NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER
REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A
RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE
TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE
SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 23.9N  93.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  95.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  97.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 080833
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010
400 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

AFTER A PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
PRACTICALLY VANISHED. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION
DURING FORMATIVE STAGE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE
AREA IN TWO OR THREE HOURS AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE THE STATUS OF
THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE GULF WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT HOSTILE...A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. IF SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
KEPT IN THIS ADVISORY. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW
IMPORTANT STRENGTHENING.
 
BOTH...INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER LAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS
ARE FORECAST TO OCURR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND
RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 24.8N  95.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 25.8N  96.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.5N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 081437
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010
 
REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER
IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS. 
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT
TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/13...BUT LANDFALL WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THESE RAINS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND
RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 26.0N  97.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 082031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010
400 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING INLAND NEAR THE
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
25 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.

EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED....THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THESE RAINS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE
ALEX.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.  FUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM...OR ITS
REMNANTS...WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IN WASHINGTON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 26.2N  98.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.6N 100.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

