WTNT41 KNHC 240232
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM.  BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/07. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT JERRY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED 
BEFORE ABSORPTION SINCE JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  IF
JERRY IS UNABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION...IT COULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 37.4N  46.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 39.5N  44.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 43.6N  40.7W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/1200Z..ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 240843
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AFTER 03Z...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY
RESUMED IN A LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
JERRY THEREFORE HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE
STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS HEADED TOWARD
COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER JERRY CAN
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.  THAT WILL SOON BE A MOOT POINT... SINCE
EITHER WAY JERRY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS CLOSING IN FAST ON JERRY.  IN RESPONSE THE
TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/13.  JERRY SHOULD TURN A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SPEED UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVENTUALLY TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  DUE TO THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 38.6N  45.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 41.4N  43.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 241500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS NOW DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM BELOW STORM
STRENGTH.  THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SO IT IS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER JERRY IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT
ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ANY EVENT
JERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  THE STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...SO AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 39.5N  44.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 42.7N  41.2W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 242038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THEREFORE WE NEED TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. 
HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE 
ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12
HOURS OR SO.

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/20.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE THAT IS APPROACHING 50W.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 41.8N  42.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 45.5N  38.7W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 250238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2136Z INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JERRY HAD
OPENED UP INTO A SHARP TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  CONSEQUENTLY...JERRY IS NO LONGER A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  AS JERRY
ACCELERATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KT ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA...HENCE THE
APPARENT UPGRADE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE REMNANTS OF JERRY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME FURTHER ENTRAINED
INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 44.5N  37.5W    40 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

