WTNT44 KNHC 122053
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
 
THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP
REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW
HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5.  THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD
DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF
COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 28.6N  94.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.4N  94.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  92.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 130244
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
 
HOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS
INTENSIFIED.  SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE
3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT
WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A
SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS.  SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.  BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 29.0N  94.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 130534
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
115 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A
HURRICANE.  BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE
BEEN INCREASED...AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.  THE
UPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR. 

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0600 UTC. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0515Z 29.4N  94.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 130856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST
OF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE
FINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS
REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE
EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS
WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7.   HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS.  A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL  CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS
SCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.9N  94.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.9N  93.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.2N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.7N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 32.3N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 131446
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. 
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS.  TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL.  IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 30.6N  93.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  91.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N  89.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 132032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES
AND FORT POLK WSR-88D RADARS SHOW THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THE CYCLONE IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. 
THUS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
IN ABOUT 48 HR.  

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 040/10.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AND THE FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO TO TURN SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...POSSIBLY RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...IT IS LIKELY THE REMNANTS WILL BE
TOO WEAK TO RE-GENERATE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HUMBERTO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 31.4N  92.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 32.9N  88.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 32.9N  86.4W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

