WTNT41 KNHC 281847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE
INITIAL AND FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL STORM
NOEL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON 1000-FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...AND SFMR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 45
AND 50 KT.  INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD.  THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 45 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS
NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE
THE WORD KNOLL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1815Z 16.9N  72.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N  72.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.7N  74.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.9N  75.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 21.1N  76.6W    50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N  77.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 25.5N  75.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 282059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
 
EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE
AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE.

FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL
PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS
AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS
DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.  THE AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES
STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA. 
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED
BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
 
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS
NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE
THE WORD KNOLL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 16.8N  71.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N  72.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.1N  74.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.2N  75.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.4N  75.8W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 26.0N  75.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  73.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
 
NOEL HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
CLUSTERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS LIKELY
GENERATING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KT.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL
AROUND 0600 UTC TO GIVE A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIX THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BASED
SOLELY ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  UTILIZING POSITION
ESTIMATES FROM EARLIER SSM/I AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4.   NOEL IS APPARENTLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS STEERING PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE NOEL TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
BASICALLY CLUSTERING INTO TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE SINCE IT SPLITS NOEL INTO TWO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND DEVELOPS A THIRD CENTER
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFDN...HWRF...U.K.
MET AND NOGAPS TRACKS.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING
ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS INHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
LOW WILL SOON FILL...CREATING AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW MUCH THE
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA
WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL.  BY DAYS 3-5...INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 17.1N  72.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.3N  73.2W    50 KT...INLAND OVER HAITI
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.7N  74.5W    60 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 21.0N  75.7W    55 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 22.4N  76.1W    55 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 25.0N  76.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 28.0N  74.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     03/0000Z 31.0N  72.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

WTNT41 KNHC 290858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
 
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB...BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI.  THE DROPSONDE
DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB.  THERE WAS AN SFMR
REPORT OF 42 KT...ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND ON THIS
BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL
IS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION.  THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET...WHICH RUN A WEAK LOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF
CUBA...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS A RESULT OF THE
NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
 
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL...WHICH IS NOT WELL-DEFINED
TO BEGIN WITH...WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE...THE
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL AND
HWRF. BY DAYS 4-5...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 18.0N  72.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.4N  72.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 21.1N  74.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 22.2N  75.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 23.0N  75.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  76.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 32.0N  70.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 291456
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
 
NOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH
OF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
HAITI.  UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN
THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON
NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE THAT WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE ECMWF THAT DEPICTS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT NEAR CUBA FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE REMAINING MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AND FORECAST A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME OF THOSE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...FORECAST
LITTLE MOTION ON DAYS 3-5...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IN THAT TIME FRAME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT SLOWLY
RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO THE HWRF
SOLUTION AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REGAINS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AFTER BEING
DISRUPTED OVER HISPANIOLA...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE NOEL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE...AND
BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 19.9N  73.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 21.2N  73.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 22.4N  74.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 23.4N  75.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  76.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N  76.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 28.0N  75.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 30.0N  72.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI
 

WTNT41 KNHC 292059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
 
THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI
EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.  THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY.  MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE
SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT. 
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES.  THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE
STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS
EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.

THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE
WESTERNMOST TRACK.  DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN
WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. 
THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 20.9N  74.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 22.4N  75.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 23.7N  77.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 24.7N  78.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 25.8N  79.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  68.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 300306
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

SO FAR...NOEL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A BROAD AND SPRAWLING
APPEARANCE.  SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA ALSO
INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS NOT YET VERY WELL ORGANIZED. 
CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES.   

THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT A 1002 MB SHIP
OR BUOY OBSERVATION NEAR 0000 UTC WAS LIKELY NOT FAR FROM THE
CENTER.  THE HOLGUIN RADAR WAS ALSO USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD.  THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS...HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE
AROUND THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA COAST.
ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...
ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY
STILL HAVING A SLIGHT INHIBITING EFFECT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF
NOEL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING.  THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AND THIS
SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.  BY DAY 4 OR SOONER NOEL WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE
TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE MIAMI WFO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  HIGH WIND
WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE APPROACH OF NOEL. 
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY....DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST TRACK
AND WIND RADII OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 21.2N  75.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 22.2N  76.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 23.3N  77.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 24.4N  78.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.5N  78.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  75.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/0000Z 38.0N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT41 KNHC 300842
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE CUBAN
WEATHER STATION 78365...PUNTA LUCRECIA... REPORTED A WIND SHIFT AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1000 MB AS THE CENTER MOVED NEARBY.  THE
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE U.S AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 52
KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KNOTS. NOEL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN
A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS
WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.
 
CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD
RECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 3
DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS NOEL SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY
IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS
EXPAND.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 21.3N  76.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 22.2N  77.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 23.3N  78.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 24.5N  78.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  77.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 31.0N  72.4W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/0600Z 45.0N  58.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 301500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL
REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA.  PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS...
HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS.  MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS
BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THE NEXT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE
AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 
AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS
NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND
NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS
SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.

THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER
INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND.  ONCE IT EMERGES OVER
WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED.  THE
CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR.  NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 21.1N  77.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 21.4N  78.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N  78.7W    40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 24.0N  78.6W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 26.2N  77.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 32.5N  71.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 39.0N  64.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1200Z 46.5N  58.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 302058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
THE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD...
ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION
DERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET
THAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION.

DESPITE THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...NOEL IS STILL EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  WHILE THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR
NOEL TO GAIN ANY LATITUDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FROM 48 HOURS ON...THE
NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN TAKING NOEL QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES
BACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IN
CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 72
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.  SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT THAT NOEL ITSELF WILL
NOT LAST BEYOND ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND INSTEAD CALL FOR NOEL TO BE
ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
FARTHER NORTH.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT
NOEL WILL REMAIN INTACT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 21.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 21.6N  78.8W    35 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 22.6N  79.2W    35 KT...NEAR N COAST OF CUBA
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.1N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 26.8N  77.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1800Z 48.5N  56.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 310238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY.  INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 

CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.  INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.

ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. 
HOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT.  THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 21.4N  78.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 22.1N  78.8W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.3N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 25.1N  78.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 27.6N  76.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  69.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/0000Z 51.0N  55.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 310847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO.  RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.  A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO
SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.

NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE 12 HR
MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE
FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER. 
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON
INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...
AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. 
THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO
FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL.  THE THIRD...
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM. 
THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL
RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS
EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA...
THERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.  AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM
NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 22.1N  78.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 22.9N  78.7W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 23.9N  78.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  77.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  75.7W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  69.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 44.0N  61.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/0600Z 54.0N  53.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 311505
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED
AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN
SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  THE CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/7.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR NOEL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SURFACE CIRCULATION
OF NOEL...THEY ALL TAKE EITHER NOEL OR A NEW EXTRATROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.  GIVEN THE BETTER ASSOCIATION OF
NOEL'S CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PRESUMES THAT NOEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION.  THE TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL
TRACKS FOR NOEL AND THE GFS TRACK FOR THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THIS DISTINCTION MAY
BECOME LESS CLEAR AS NOEL APPROACHES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE
WARNING IS CALLED...WINDS NEAR THE LOW-END TROPICAL STORM/GALE
THRESHHOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NWS FORECAST OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 22.7N  78.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 23.9N  78.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 25.1N  78.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  76.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  73.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  67.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1200Z 55.0N  51.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 312038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
THE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS
MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
THE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME
EVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY
CENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
OF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS
BLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.   

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
DATA.  THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
NOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE
DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
BRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE
POSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.  BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A
WARNING.  THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 22.6N  78.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  79.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.3N  78.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  76.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  72.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 39.0N  66.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 49.0N  57.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1800Z 60.0N  47.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 010238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED
ON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY
DISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE.
 
AFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE
AND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE
IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...
ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING
NOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT
EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 23.2N  78.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N  78.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 26.5N  77.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  74.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 33.5N  70.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 50.0N  53.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0000Z 55.0N  42.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 010901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
NOEL PRODUCED A MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -90C AT TIMES. 
HOWEVER...THE BURST HAS ENDED...WITH RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...
NASSAU...AND CAMAGUEY CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE CENTER.  MAJOR COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE DISRUPTED THE FLOW
OF DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MONITORING NOEL.  HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 992 MB AT 05Z.  BASED ON THAT AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 000/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EASTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NOEL WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 36 HR...AND THEN IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MOTION DURING THE
FIRST 12 HR COULD BE ERRATIC DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER
CAUSED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

NOEL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...RAWINSONDE DATA FROM KEY WEST
AND MIAMI SHOW THAT THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO ABOVE 200 MB...WITH
20-30 KT OF WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 200-400 MB UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW AND CAUSING SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY 24
HR...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR NOEL TO INTENSIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NOEL TO
STRENGTHEN TO 60 KT IN 12 HR IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
BURST SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST FINISHED.  AFTER THAT...
INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD STOP DEVELOPMENT.  ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST NOEL TO BECOME A LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARING IN 36-48 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
BOTH THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ABOUT
100-115 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT....WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED BY DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE MIAMI WSR-88D
AND A 37 KT SHIP REPORT AT 06Z.  THESE WINDS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE FLORIDA COAST THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THEM ON TO THE FLORIDA COAST.  THUS...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREA OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 23.7N  78.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N  78.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 27.2N  76.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  73.4W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  70.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 43.5N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 53.0N  52.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0600Z 57.5N  42.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 011500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.  THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 020/8.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
NORTHNORTHEASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.

WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE.  HOWEVER...
BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 24.5N  77.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 25.8N  76.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 28.4N  74.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  69.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 46.0N  61.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 56.5N  50.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 012035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NOEL REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND PEAK
SFMR WINDS OF 53 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WAS BECOMING DISTORTED AND ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NOEL...SIGNALING THE
START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR
SO...THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL
TO BECOME A CANE. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOEL WILL BECOME AN EXTREMELY LARGE
AND POWERFUL CYCLONE.
 
NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 25.5N  77.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 27.6N  75.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.7N  73.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  71.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 50.5N  60.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 60.0N  52.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 020240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AND ROUND VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE
MASS WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENTERED THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL AND MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM
EARLIER FLIGHTS. WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND PEAKED AT 81 KNOTS...AND THE MAXIMUM MEASURED SFMR
SURFACE WINDS WERE 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE
INCREASE IN THE WINDS...AND A 0022 UTC SSM/IS PASS DEPICTED AN EYE
FEATURE.  NOEL COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION AND A COOLER OCEAN.  IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED
SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR A
LITTLE BIT LATER. NEVERTHELESS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE
AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
NOEL IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG AND ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. FROM THIS POINT ON...THE CYCLONE CAN ONLY ACCELERATE AND
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  DETAILS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PRIMARILY NOVA SCOTIA ARE INCLUDED IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT
CANADA.

NOTE: LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION AND WINDS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 27.3N  76.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  74.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  72.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 37.5N  69.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 42.5N  66.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 53.0N  58.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 62.5N  50.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 020850
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
 
AT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY
DROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE
AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16.  NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT
48 HR.  A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES.
 
NOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN
26C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM.  THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
NOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR.  IT IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND
AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER
IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT.  THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO
BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 28.4N  75.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 31.2N  73.6W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 35.4N  71.2W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 40.0N  68.7W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 44.9N  65.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 56.0N  56.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 64.5N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 021450
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69
KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER.  THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL
SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND
700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  IF
THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.  WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS
OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.   AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN
BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 29.2N  73.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 37.1N  69.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 41.8N  66.9W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 47.5N  62.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 58.0N  54.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  47.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 022052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
 
NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.  SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY
NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL.  THUS THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NOEL ADVISORY.
 
CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER.
 
BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND
AREAS.  THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 31.4N  72.4W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  71.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 39.4N  69.3W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 44.7N  65.7W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 50.6N  61.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 61.0N  52.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 68.0N  46.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
 

