WTNT43 KNHC 140229
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN ON A RESEARCH MISSION THIS
EVENING AND FOUND 35 KT WINDS USING THE ON-BOARD STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR).  THESE WINDS MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL TO A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE NINTH NAMED
STORM OF THE YEAR.  

MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID. 
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SHEAR ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
STRENGTH.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY...LIKELY
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF INGRID.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE LONGER RANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
NEARLY 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE STORM'S PATH. 

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT TONIGHT...
ESTIMATED AT 300/5.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT PROBABLY
HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF INGRID.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS LOW HAS CAUSED A
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO THE
LOW...AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT
IS ASSUMED THAT INGRID WILL REMAIN WEAK AND STAY ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR NOW.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 14.7N  48.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.1N  49.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.6N  50.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N  51.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  52.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.8N  56.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  58.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 20.5N  60.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT43 KNHC 140852
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
 
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0452 UTC AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LIES BENEATH
THE LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE...I WILL HOLD OFF
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
CAN BE TAKEN.  SO...INGRID WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF
INGRID WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING INGRID...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
HAMPERING INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGE AND FSSE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/6.  INGRID IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTHEAST
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  
BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THAT OF INGRID WILL
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.  SINCE INGRID IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
CYCLONE IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 15.1N  49.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  50.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N  51.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.7N  52.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.3N  53.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N  56.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  58.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  60.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 

WTNT43 KNHC 141434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
 
FIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON A
RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO
CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE PLANE...AND 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART.  THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST
THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO DETERIORATE SINCE THIS MORNING'S CLASSIFICATIONS.

INGRID IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THESE CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INGRID. THIS LOW WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE OR
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED
BY THE NOGAPS TO THE NORTH AND BY THE UK TO THE SOUTH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.2N  50.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N  50.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  52.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N  53.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N  55.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  57.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  59.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N  61.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 142024
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
 
THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID
HAS MATERIALIZED AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BASICALLY
SHAPELESS WITH NO OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERIORATION
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECREASE IN DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PLAGUE OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
INGRID THROUGH 5 DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SHRED THE CLOUD PATTERN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY
WEAKEN INGRID.
 
INGRID IS MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW TRACK...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS WHICH PREVAIL TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 15.6N  50.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N  51.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N  52.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  54.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  55.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  57.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  58.9W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  61.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 150228
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND
FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN ADDITION...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING.  AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE
PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT
SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS
PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT. 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS
EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE
STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO.  SOME WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME.  IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE
AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 15.9N  51.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N  52.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N  53.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N  55.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  56.4W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.8N  58.2W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  59.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  60.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT43 KNHC 150836
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
 
IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID
EARLY THIS MORNING.  BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A
TOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.  ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
BACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE
MEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN. 

INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF
THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
MAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9.  A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE
REMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.5N  52.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.2N  54.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N  55.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N  56.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  58.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N  59.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 23.5N  60.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  61.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 

WTNT43 KNHC 151432
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER...HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER INGRID. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED AND INGRID IS BECOMING A JUST LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS AS INDICATED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT AND BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT...AND BASED ON DATA FROM THESE
OBSERVING TOOLS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30
KNOTS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. 

THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...IT IS BECOMING STEERED BY THE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF INGRID SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IN
FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 16.4N  53.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N  55.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N  56.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N  58.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N  59.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  61.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  63.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  64.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 152031
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A TIGHT CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED
AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...BUT BECOME IMMEDIATELY SHEARED AWAY BY THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF EVEN
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HEADING FOR INGRID.  THIS COULD FURTHER
LESSEN THE DEEP CONVECTION...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH DAY 5...SINCE THE
DEPRESSION MIGHT SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALL
VERSIONS OF THE SHIPS MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF
INGRID BEYOND 3 DAYS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SOLUTION
APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE BOTH THE SOPHISTICATED GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND MORE SHALLOW...DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IT HAS BEEN STEERED WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS...BY THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. DUE TO
THE INITIAL WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3
DAYS...BUT STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS HAS INCREASED BEYOND 3
DAYS. SOME SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WHILE
OTHERS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 16.5N  55.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N  56.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N  58.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  59.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  60.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  62.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N  63.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N  64.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 160229
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007
 
THE CENTER OF INGRID IS MOSTLY EXPOSED ON NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION.  A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
OVERALL...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID AND
CAUSE A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN.  QUIKSCAT SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS
IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT. 
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN...BUT THERE
PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFS DOES THE SAME BY 96 HOURS. 
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK
SYSTEM PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT THE
FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SURVIVAL CHANCES OF
INGRID.
 
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...
ESTIMATED AT 285/9.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS SLOWLY
ERODED AWAY BY A TROUGH.  IN GENERAL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MODELS RECOGNIZING THE
SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 16.9N  55.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.4N  57.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.2N  58.6W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  59.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N  60.8W    25 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  62.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 23.0N  63.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT43 KNHC 160837
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
 
THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL. 

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE
GFDL.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES
HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT
TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.0N  56.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  58.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.2N  59.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.1N  60.4W    25 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  61.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 23.5N  64.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 161434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW.  IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL
EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING. 

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/10.  HOWEVER...THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  THIS
SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS
INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.  IN 4-5
DAYS A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO TURN INGRID NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT
VERY WELL DEFINED SO A SLOW MOTION OF ONLY 4-5 KT IS INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SINCE INGRID HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 17.2N  57.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 17.7N  59.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.4N  60.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.2N  61.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N  62.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 23.0N  64.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N  64.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT43 KNHC 162037
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED.  THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...AND
THE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME
INDISTINCT.  MOREOVER...A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS...IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB
DVORAK ESTIMATE.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.  INDEED IF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES...INGRID WILL WEAKEN.  HOWEVER SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...IF INGRID
SURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT COULD BEGIN TO
RESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND
HWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME.  ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW
DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON.  CONSEQUENTLY THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9.  THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT
INFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS
THE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND IS
NOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000
UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 17.4N  58.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.8N  59.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  61.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.3N  61.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 20.2N  62.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 21.2N  63.7W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N  65.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT43 KNHC 170300
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARED AFTER ABOUT 21Z. ANALYSIS OF
THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 2145Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED WINDS NO
STRONGER THAN 25 KT...AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WERE IN AN ISOLATED AREA
OF SHOWERS ABOUT 80-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE SINCE THEN...SO THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 25 KT...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW CONTINUED STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR INGRID TO STRENGTHEN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WHEN
THE SHEAR DECREASES A LITTLE...BUT THAT IS ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
STILL EXISTS AT THAT TIME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NEARLY THAT LONG.

THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/8.  INGRID
CONTINUES TO MOVE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE...IT IS
SUCH A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. 
FOR THE SAME REASON...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE LEFT OF
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALONG A
TRACK THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM.  A GRADUAL BEND
TO THE RIGHT IS STILL FORECAST SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
INGRID IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...INGRID OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF IT WILL BE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING REGIME...FAR
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 17.4N  59.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N  60.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.0N  61.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.7N  62.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N  63.6W    25 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 20.5N  65.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 21.5N  66.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  67.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT43 KNHC 170829
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
 
INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.  STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED.  MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE.  FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 17.5N  60.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N  61.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N  62.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

