WTNT43 KNHC 230249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER FOUND
1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 35-39 KT.  BASED ON THIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/12. 
BONNIE IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD...
BONNIE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR KEYS ON FRIDAY...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 60-72 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BONNIE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF UPPER
LOW.  THIS IS A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
BONNIE REACHES FLORIDA.  THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS
RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
AND NEITHER DO THE GLOBAL MODELS.  SINCE THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 23.4N  76.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 24.4N  78.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 25.4N  81.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.5N  84.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 27.6N  87.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 30.0N  91.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/0000Z 35.5N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 230859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE
HAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF
34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH.  FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS BONNIE PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.  
 
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16.  BONNIE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 

THE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING.  BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF
BONNIE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...
IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.
  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 24.1N  78.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  81.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.2N  84.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.6N  86.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 28.8N  89.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 231450
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
 
BONNIE IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO STRONG
SHEAR...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS TRAILING THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  BONNIE WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME EVEN
MORE DISRUPTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN
DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY. BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING
THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BONNIE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...AND BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...OR SHOULD I SAY...THE MODELS THAT DO NOT WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE...SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 25.4N  80.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  83.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  86.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
 

WTNT43 KNHC 232032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 
 
THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 26.2N  81.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  84.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  87.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
 

WTNT43 KNHC 240235
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
 
BONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS
FOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE
AIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB.  BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...
BONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER
THE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS
CLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTS.  AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
BONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...
AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR
DISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING
ANY INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  AN
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
LACK OF CONVECTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.4N  83.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N  85.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.2N  88.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 34.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 240847
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.

BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL
ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY.  THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 27.0N  85.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  87.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 30.8N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 32.1N  92.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  93.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT43 KNHC 241435
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
 
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.
 
A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.
 
BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 28.0N  86.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 29.1N  88.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 31.5N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
 

WTNT43 KNHC 241435
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25
KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST.

BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/1500Z 28.0N  86.7W    25 KT
12HR VT     25/0000Z 29.1N  88.7W    25 KT
24HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     26/0000Z 31.5N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS




WTNT43 KNHC 242034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DEGENERATED INTO AN AREA LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE OR NO WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW RAINBANDS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS
AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER
AND DISSIPATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 28.5N  87.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.5N  89.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS




