WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
 
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF.  THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2200Z 28.1N  88.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N  89.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.9N  93.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  96.2W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
 
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL
MAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...A TREND
WHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE
COASTLINE...SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY...AND AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...THE CHANCES
OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM
MORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 28.1N  88.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 28.2N  89.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 28.6N  91.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.3N  94.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040840
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE
DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB.  IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  RECENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB.  I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT
WILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS. 
GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
AREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES...EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. 
THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 270/8.  NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. 
IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER. 
AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 28.1N  90.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 29.0N  93.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 29.7N  95.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 30.4N  98.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
 
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED
45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX.  IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST
12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. 
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 28.2N  90.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 28.4N  92.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  94.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.7N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
 
DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T
CHANGED MUCH.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.  STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  EDOUARD'S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 28.3N  91.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 28.6N  92.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 29.4N  95.0W    60 KT...JUST INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  97.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  99.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 050259
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
 
EDOUARD HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.  HOWEVER...
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE
CENTER...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER AT LAKE CHARLES IS SHOWING WINDS
OF 60-65 KT AT 10000 FT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
 
SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OCCURRED BETWEEN 18Z-00Z...AND SINCE
THAT ENDED THERE HAS BEEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 290/6.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  EDOUARD SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LANDFALL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER
TEXAS...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHEAR...
POSSIBLE DRY AIR...AND RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ARGUE AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE
LANDFALL.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LANDFALL AS A 55-60 KT TROPICAL STORM. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE STORM COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE
IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...EDOUARD SHOULD
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 28.7N  92.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  93.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  95.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  97.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N  99.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 050839
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008
 
WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
OVERNIGHT.  SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. 
PEAK DOPPLER VELOCITIES WERE NEAR 65 KT AT ELEVATIONS OF 3000-5000
FT AND THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SFMR RECORDED SURFACE WINDS
OF 53 AND 56 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN.  ADDITIONALLY...THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE 68 KT OVER THE SAME AREA...CORRESPONDING TO
A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 54 KT.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS HAVE A VERY HIGH SKIN TEMPERATURE BUT DO NOT HAVE A
PARTICULARLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS INCREASING SO DYNAMICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE
LANDFALL.  EDOUARD MIGHT STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING
THE COAST BUT...AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE
RATHER CLOSELY.
 
AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND IS NOW 300/10.  THE
STEERING FLOW FOR EDOUARD IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 29.3N  93.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.1N  95.1W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  97.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.9N  99.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.8N 101.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 051434
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008
 
EDOUARD MADE LANDFALL AT 1200 UTC IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW BEGINNING TO
LOSE ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH
THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE CENTER IS BECOMING HARDER TO LOCATE IN WSR-88D DATA...BUT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 29.9N  94.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 30.6N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.4N  98.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.4N 100.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 052027
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008
 
THE ORGANIZATION OF EDOUARD...AS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY...HAS BEEN DEGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 35 KT...AND EDOUARD IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
WITH THIS ADVISORY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
PUSHES FARTHER INLAND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES IN A DAY OR SO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 30.2N  95.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  96.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

