WTNT42 KNHC 060858
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
46 KT ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1000 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.

UP TO 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE HWRF FORECASTS A
PEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL.  AFTER 72 HR...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
SHEAR APART VERTICALLY.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6.  PALOMA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS
LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES 18N IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THIS FLOW SHOULD
CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS.  FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD
FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS
SHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...
SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS.  SINCE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. 
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
 
IF THE CURRENT MOTION AND STRUCTURE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS.  HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IF THE
STORM MAKES A LEFT TURN OR GROWS IN SIZE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.1N  82.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.6N  82.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.5N  83.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N  82.8W    75 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N  81.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  78.0W    65 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  73.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 061435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER. BANDING
FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1800Z TO PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE.
 
WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING INNER
CORE STRUCTURE SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF PALOMA IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND  THE SHIPS INDEX SUGGESTS THAT
THE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS 3-4 TIMES THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE STRONG IN 60-120 HOUR TIME PERIODS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE.  THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY
THAT PALOMA WOULD GET STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN OFFICIAL
FORECAST TIMES AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF STILL
FORECAST THE STORM TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
BASED ON THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW... IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES IT WAY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY
ON. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
PALOMA ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A POWERFUL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERTICALLY-
COHERENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...PALOMA SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IN A SPEEDY FASHION...SIMILAR TO THE
SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL RIP PALOMA APART...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS SHOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE THE FORECAST REASONING THAT
PALOMA WILL REMAIN A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED
AFTER 72 HR WILL BE STILL BE SLOWER THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE
INDICATING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 15.6N  82.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.3N  82.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.3N  82.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N  82.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.3N  82.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N  80.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N  76.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 25.0N  73.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 062036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB
WINDS OF 61 KT...SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT...AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA.  THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE
OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS.  RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE.  OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL STILL
FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
CENTER...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7.  DISTANT
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 
ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD...
TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF...ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA. 
SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND IS STRONGER...THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY
SOLUTION.  

NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS
IN A FEW HOURS.   
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 16.3N  81.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N  81.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.3N  82.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  81.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.0N  80.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N  78.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N  75.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  72.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 070258
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS REPORTS FROM
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057...INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. AT 2250Z...THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED
WIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB...PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A
WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF
THE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE
UKMET...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND
VERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST
REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY...AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE
VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

PALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN
48 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE
AND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24
HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN EYE FEATURE...A RELATIVELY SMALL
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS.
THE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36
HOURS...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE
FROM 5 KT TO 25 KT...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...
LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT
72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 17.2N  81.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.1N  81.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N  81.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N  80.8W   100 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 20.7N  79.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N  77.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  74.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 27.5N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 070913
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE PALOMA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED
TO AT LEAST 981 MB...AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE SFMR AND DROPSONDE
ESTIMATES OF 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 16 N MI WIDE EYE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.  WHILE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT
10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/8.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE.  PALOMA IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO SHEAR APART
AT VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN 24-96 HR...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WINDING UP ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP PALOMA TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  SINCE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED FROM 35 KT TO 70 KT IN THE LAST 24 HR...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.  AFTER 24-36 HR...THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN.  THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY PASSAGE ACROSS
CUBA BETWEEN 48-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY
120 HR.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CAST SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER
THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF PALOMA DOES NOT
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD STILL WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 17.8N  81.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.6N  81.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  81.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 20.4N  80.1W   100 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 21.1N  79.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  73.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 071432
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
 
PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. BY SUNDAY...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO SUCH
A HIGH DEGREE THAT PALOMA MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SINCE THE BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCES SEEM LIMITED...REMNANT LOW SEEMS LIKE THE MORE ACCURATE
TERM. THE CANADIAN TERM POST-TROPICAL MAY ALSO FIT THIS SITUATION. 

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING 005/6.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE EARLY PART OF THE NHC FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST PALOMA LEAVES THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM FALLS
APART.  A POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
AND HIGH SHEAR CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE 
AFTER A CUBAN LANDFALL...CAUSING PALOMA TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. 
THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILTY IN THE MOST RECENT
GFS AND HWRF MODEL RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 18.3N  81.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N  81.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N  80.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 20.8N  79.4W    90 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 21.6N  78.3W    75 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N  74.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  72.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT42 KNHC 072049
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
 
AS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS
OF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT
ORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
UNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...
STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP
UNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM
QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE
LONGER-TERM.  HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE
SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH
OF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING
SLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER
MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER
MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST
WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE
ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 18.7N  81.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  80.9W   100 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 20.2N  79.8W    95 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.1N  78.6W    85 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.8N  77.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N  76.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 23.5N  75.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     12/1800Z 23.5N  75.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 080301
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
 
PALOMA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...HAVING STRENGTHENED 15
KT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND 70 KT IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE LAST AIR
FORCE RECON PASS THROUGH THE EYE INDICATED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF
964 MB...700 MB PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT...AND DROPSONDE
MEASUREMENT EQUATING TO A 101 KT SURFACE WIND...AND A SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND OF 101 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THESE DATA EASILY
SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EYE HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/06 KT. PALOMA HAS FINALLY MADE
THE LONG ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. AS PALOMA COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...A
CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK OUT TO THAT
TIME AND BEYOND IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A BIFURCATION IN THE NHC
MODEL SUITE WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING PALOMA AND TURNING IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA BY 36 TO 48
HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER CYCLONE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BASED ON
THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM RECON AIRCRAFT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BY 72 HOURS...EVEN IF PALOMA
REMAINS VERTICALLY INTACT...THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
TO DECOUPLE...INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.

SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO
AFFECT PALOMA UNTIL AROUND 12 HOURS...SO THERE IS STILL A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
BEFORE IT REACHES LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. HOWEVER...BY 24
HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT MAKE
PALOMA A 105-KT HURRICANE UNTIL 24-36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH IT IS
ALREADY OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THOSE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED
GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PALOMA AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 19.1N  80.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 19.8N  80.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N  79.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.2N  78.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N  77.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.4N  76.2W    40 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  76.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  76.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 080905
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO 950 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 122 KT...AND TWO ESTIMATES OF 105 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 110 KT.  THIS INTENSITY IS LESS THAN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 127 KT FROM SAB...WHICH
SUGGESTS PALOMA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 050/06.  PALOMA IS BEING STEERED
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH
OF PALOMA.  WHILE THIS HAPPENS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF PALOMA.  IF THIS FORECAST EVOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BY 96-120 HR IT WOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THIS WOULD BE FOR
PALOMA TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS SOME SORT OF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72
HR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL 120 HR POSITIONS
THAT RANGES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE HWRF...WHICH
FORECAST PALOMA TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT DOES NOT GET
CAUGHT UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  SINCE THIS COULD HAPPEN IF
PALOMA MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
WILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION FORECASTS.  INSTEAD...IT
SHOWS ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT PALOMA
HAS ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS TO STRENGTHEN.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE JET DATA SHOW WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 250-500 MB.  THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO
ABOUT 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO STEADILY WEAKEN...
WITH THE WEAKENING BEING ACCELERATED BY PASSAGE OVER CUBA IN 24-36
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CALLING FOR PALOMA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 48
HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 19.5N  80.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.1N  79.4W   110 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  78.2W    95 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  77.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 081032
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
530 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT.  THIS
SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE
FORECAST.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE WIND
RADII...OR THE INTENSITY AT OTHER TIMES.

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR PALOMA TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
CUBA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THUS...THE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY HAVE BEEN INCREASED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1030Z 19.6N  79.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.1N  79.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  78.2W   100 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  77.2W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 081456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008
 
THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE SUGGESTED THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO LEAST 943 MB.  IN ADDITION...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE WERE 134 KT WITH SFMR READINGS OF 127
KT...THOUGH THE LATTER VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED DUE TO
SHOALING AROUND LITTLE CAYMAN/CAYMAN BRAC.  SINCE THE PLANE
DEPARTED...CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...SO PERHAPS
PALOMA'S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120
KT...AND THE HURRICANE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER A FEW
HOURS AGO. TWO MORE PLANES WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. 

RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH SHEAR
THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY...SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP
THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A
BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA.  

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO
BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM...REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC
FORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN'T TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.

EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OVER 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO DUE TO THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA.  

PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER
NOTED IN NOVEMBER...THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 19.9N  79.3W   120 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 20.4N  78.2W   110 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 21.0N  77.0W    85 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  76.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 22.0N  76.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 22.5N  75.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  76.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 082045
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008
 
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING...
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 142 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT...AND A RISING MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB.  125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOON.  ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH...HOWEVER...IS
LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE
COAST.  A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND.   THIS
WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT HIGHER THAN...THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9.  THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN
STEERING CURRENTS.  THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE
LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  PALOMA MAY START
TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE.
 
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
PALOMA.
 
PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN
NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 20.5N  78.5W   125 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N  77.5W    85 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  76.9W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.3N  76.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 090252
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008
 
THE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORT AT 2305Z INDICATED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...WITH AN EARLIER MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 118 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME...PALOMA
HAS MOVED INLAND AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH...AND LAND INTERACTION
WITH CUBA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA
ARE STILL INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OF 50 DBZ AND HIGHER
VALUES COMPRISING THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION
AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS STILL EXIST OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY
DECREASED TO 100 KT...MAINTAINING PALOMA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS PALOMA MOVES
ACROSS CUBA. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION OF PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED BY A BUILDING LOW- MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PALOMA WEAKENS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENED PALOMA MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE KEY...OF
COURSE...IS HOW STRONG WILL THAT CIRCULATION BE AT DAYS 3-5.
ALTHOUGH THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY AND IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT...THE 300 MB WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT
AND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
PALOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER
EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW BELOW 30,000 FT TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING
UNUSUALLY COLD 200 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -55C...WHICH WOULD ACT
TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 20.9N  77.7W   100 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 21.4N  77.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.8N  76.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 22.3N  75.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.6N  75.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 090855
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CUBA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS A
LITTLE BEHIND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE
RADAR PRESENTATION IS DEGRADING RAPIDLY. WITH NO DIRECT INFORMATION
AVAILABLE...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL...BUT I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...IS
050/4. WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...IT APPEARS THAT THE
DECOUPLING OF PALOMA IS UNDERWAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A VERY HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR PALOMA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES OVER WATER. IF THE PRESENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY THE NOGAPS
MAINTAINS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OUT TO 96 HOURS. A NUMBER OF THE
BETTER-PERFORMING TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW PALOMA...OR ITS
REMNANTS...BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER CUBA AGAIN
BENEATH THE BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IF THIS HAPPENS THE
SYSTEM WOULD DEGENERATE EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR.  THE
LONGER PALOMA HOLDS TOGETHER THE FARTHER NORTHEAST IT WILL GET.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY 48 HOURS THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WILL STOP.  AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUIDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE HWRF...GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF TURN THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD BACK ACROSS CUBA...WHILE THE
GFS AND THE NOGAPS TURN THEM MORE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
LATTER OF THESE SCENARIOS...ALTHOUGH IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE LEFT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 21.3N  77.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 21.6N  77.1W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  76.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N  76.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 091432
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING
IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.  CAMAGUEY...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  OUR BEST GUESS AT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND
FORECAST...INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND
THIS HAS NECESSITATED A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. 
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM...IT
IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL
LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS...BY WHICH TIME THERE
WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM.  SINCE WE BELIEVE
THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO
AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...PALOMA COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 21.2N  77.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N  77.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  77.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  76.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 092036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PALOMA SINCE ABOUT 10Z THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA DOES SHOW SOME MODEST BUT
DECREASING RAINFALL IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EDUCATED GUESS FOR THIS OVERLAND
CYCLONE...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
ANALYSES.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT PALOMA HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP
CONVECTION AND OVER LAND ALL DAY IT SEEMS CERTAIN THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY TODAY.
AVAILABLE CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVING STATIONS AND CONTINUITY SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA HAS WEAKENED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

PALOMA HAS NEARLY COME TO A HALT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL MOTION
OF ABOUT 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS THUS
CLOSEST TO BAM SHALLOW...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR
ALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY LEADING TO
PALOMA'S IMMINENT DEMISE.  UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RE-INITIATED SOON...PALOMA MAY BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 21.2N  78.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.6N  78.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.2N  78.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 22.7N  78.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N  78.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 100237
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
 
PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION
...ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WELL TO THE
EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
CONVECTION...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE
GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MEANDERING OVER LAND
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE
RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.0N  78.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

