WTNT43 KNHC 192043
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
 
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 1800 UTC AND IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE STORM NEAR 00Z.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10. THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. ONE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY IS THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE CENTER BRIEFLY OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.
 
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGEST HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THERE
ARE TWO NOTES ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  FIRST...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY
BEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  SECOND...THE INTENSITIES LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT IF THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER OUT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 16.5N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 16.7N  86.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.1N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 17.6N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1800Z 18.0N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  22/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 200253
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A
DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS
MORNING.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. 

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND
BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.
 
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...
THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.  THIS REQUIRED A 
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 16.2N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 16.4N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 16.8N  88.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1200Z 17.3N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/0000Z 17.7N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
 

WTNT43 KNHC 200854
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
 
AFTER A LULL BETWEEN 0400 AND 0600 UTC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RE-BLOSSOMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF HARVEY...WHICH IS VERY
NEAR ROATAN ACCORDING TO A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THAT ISLAND.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE STRUCTURE WHEN
THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION WAS INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT.  ANOTHER RECON
MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH HARVEY AROUND 1200 UTC.
 
BASED ON THE ROATAN OBSERVATIONS...HARVEY MAY HAVE PICKED UP SOME
SPEED...AND ITS INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/10.  THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STEERING HARVEY ON A NEARLY CONSTANT WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING BEFORE HARVEY REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER
TODAY.  THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE THE HIGHEST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATE THAT HARVEY COULD BE JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 12 HOURS.  SINCE LANDFALL ON THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE WITHIN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE EVEN THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN FACT...THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE
OF THAT OCCURRING...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND RECENT NHC
INTENSITY ERRORS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER HARVEY MOVES
INLAND...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
FOLLOWS THE DECAY OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS.  DISSIPATION IS NOW
EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
 
BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA
HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE GUATEMALAN COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 16.4N  86.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 16.5N  87.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 16.7N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1800Z 16.9N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/0600Z 17.2N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
 

WTNT43 KNHC 201454
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT HARVEY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS....WITH THE INTENSITY REMAINING NEAR 50 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED 61-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. 
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ON THE LAST FIX WAS NEAR 998 MB.  DATA FROM
THE RADAR AT BELIZE CITY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THERE IS NO CLOSED EYEWALL APPARENT AT
THIS TIME.

THE CENTER JOGGED TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 280/10.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY IS
EXPECTED TO STEER IT GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO BELIZE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER UNTIL
THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.

HARVEY HAS AT BEST 4-8 HOURS LEFT TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. 
WHILE THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE
DIMINISHING...THE INNER WIND CORE IS SMALL AND THUS A 10-15 KT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER LANDFALL...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 16.8N  87.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 17.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1200Z 17.3N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/0000Z 17.6N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/1200Z 17.7N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 202036
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
 
THE CENTER OF HARVEY MADE LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE NEAR
1800 UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT.  JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED
63-KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND AN ATTEMPT TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  SINCE
LANDFALL...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW LESS
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45
KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
HARVEY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND
MOVES INTO MEXICO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 17.2N  88.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/0600Z 17.4N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z 17.7N  92.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/0600Z 17.9N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 210238
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
 
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE COVERAGE OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH
OF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
ALTHOUGH HARVEY HAS WEAKENED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND
EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 17.4N  90.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/1200Z 17.7N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0000Z 17.9N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 210848
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13.  THE COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING
CLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS
AND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IF THE CENTER
WAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...
AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 17.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 18.1N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0600Z 18.3N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT43 KNHC 211442
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF REMAINING CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF HARVEY SEEMS TO HAVE
AVOIDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
WHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED IT TO SURVIVE LONGER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 280/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HARVEY OVER
LAND...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND SUGGEST A
SLIM CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NO
SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.
 
HEAVY RAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 17.7N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  22/0000Z 18.1N  94.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/1200Z 18.3N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 212044
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS BACK
OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.  THEREFORE...THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HARVEY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.  THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND A BIT MORE TO LEFT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AS HARVEY MOVES UNDERNEATH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION
AND REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THIS FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF MEXICAN COAST BORDERING THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 18.6N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 19.0N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 19.3N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0600Z 19.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 220243
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY
HAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE
OVER 24 HOURS.
 
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. 
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  A TURN
TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA
VERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 19.0N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 19.3N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST
 24H  23/0000Z 19.5N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 220854
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
 
EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND
0300 UTC.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.  

CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER
LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER
TODAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 18.4N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 18.2N  96.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

