WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010
 
SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 27.3N  63.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.6N  65.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 32.8N  63.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 39.3N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  45.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
 

WTNT45 KNHC 290835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF SHARY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...A LARGE BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE
SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL THAN EARLIER AS ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS INCREASING AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS LESS DISTORTED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS THE STORM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  SHARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  NOTE THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
BOTH SHOW SHARY BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AT THAT
TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 325/16...A BIT SLOWER THAN
EARLIER. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH COLLAPSES AS A MID-LATITUDE
SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THOUGH THE
SPEED DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE NEW FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER
SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 28.5N  65.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 30.8N  65.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 33.9N  62.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 37.7N  56.3W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 42.5N  48.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 291436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION...
CAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO
WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN
EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS
AT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING
TO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION
WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE
CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
TRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS
NEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING
IN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE
CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS
EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
OVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS
HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 29.6N  66.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 32.2N  64.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 35.6N  60.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 39.9N  52.9W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 45.0N  43.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 291456
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE 325/08
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION...
CAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO
WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN
EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS
AT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING
TO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION
WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE
CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
TRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS
NEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING
IN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE
CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS
EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
OVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS
HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 29.6N  66.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 32.2N  64.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 35.6N  60.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 39.9N  52.9W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 45.0N  43.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 292059
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SHARY MEASURED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68
KT...AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATED WIND OF 53 KT.  A SUBSEQUENT
ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1442 UTC INDICATED BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE 45-50
KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS
STRONG SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH...SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE SOON. IN ADDITION...SHARY IS
CURRENTLY OVER ABOUT 25 C WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC
ENHANCEMENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SHARY TRANSITIONING
TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOMING
ABSORBED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
SHARY IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE IS STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 30.9N  65.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.1N  62.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 36.8N  56.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 41.3N  48.9W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 300237
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING AND HAS EXPANDED A BIT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. 
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WITHIN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WERE 73 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...AND 60 KT
BASED ON AN SFMR WIND ESTIMATION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHARY IS MOVING
WITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NOW 20-30 KT...AND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SHEAR
ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
BERMUDA...AND INTERACTION WITH SHARY SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. 
THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAMS FOR THE GFS/UKMET/CMC
UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT SHARY WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD...050/18.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS
TRANSITION TO A NON-TROPICAL LOW.  THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF
POST-TROPICAL SHARY SHOULD BE SHORT...AS ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 31.9N  63.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  59.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 38.2N  51.7W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 300836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010
 
SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
37-GHZ CHANNEL.  WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. 
THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT. 
NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS.  IT IS
HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT.  THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE. 

THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE
NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN
76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 33.6N  59.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 35.7N  54.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  48.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT45 KNHC 301436
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010
 
SHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING
HELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
OVER COOLER WATER.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE
CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 35.9N  55.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 38.0N  50.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT45 KNHC 302034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW
INTERACTING WITH SHARY AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS
SUGGEST THAT CYCLONE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...SHARY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS STORM
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
 
THE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 42 KT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 39.2N  50.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 42.8N  44.2W    55 KT...DISSIPATED
 24HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

