WTNT25 KNHC 131440
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1500 UTC MON OCT 13 2008
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  69.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N  70.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  69.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

WTNT25 KNHC 132036
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2008
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION
OF HISPANIOLA FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRISTISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  69.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N  69.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N  68.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N  66.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  69.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

WTNT25 KNHC 140250
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
0300 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  69.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  69.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  69.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.8N  69.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.5N  67.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  69.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 

WTNT25 KNHC 140830
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  69.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  69.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  69.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.6N  68.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.6N  67.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N  65.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N  62.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  69.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

