WTNT23 KNHC 232032
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
2100 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUA BORDER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.9W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.9W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  81.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.4N  82.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N  82.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.1N  84.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.3N  86.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N  87.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N  88.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

