WTNT43 KNHC 112032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BEYOND
THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND
EARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA
IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND
ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE. 

BASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 16.0N  84.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N  84.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  86.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  86.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N  86.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N  85.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 120246
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
 
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
MASS.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT PAULA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF
PAULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PAULA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF
THE GUIDANCE.  BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  
 
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.  PAULA
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A POSITION NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PAULA TO SLOW DOWN AS THE STEERING
CURRENTS COLLAPSE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK 
REMAINS QUITE LOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 16.8N  84.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N  85.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.4N  86.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 20.4N  86.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 21.0N  86.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  85.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N  83.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT43 KNHC 120850
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
65 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT.  IT IS
PROBABLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE THE VERY HIGHEST WINDS IN
THE CYCLONE.  MOREOVER...A DROPSONDE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL SHOWED THAT THE WINDS FROM AROUND 900 MB DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WERE 65-70 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...PAULA IS
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.  SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE
WEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING
TO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9.  LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.  PAULA IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL ACCELERATING PAULA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TURNING
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA.  THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
PREDICTED INTENSITY.  A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD
LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.  SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF
FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  AS NOTED
IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 17.6N  85.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.7N  86.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 20.1N  86.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 21.0N  86.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N  86.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 21.5N  85.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  84.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N  83.5W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 121440
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE FEATURE AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. LATEST AVAILABLE
SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT RING OF CONVECTION MARKING THE
EYEWALL AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 4.0 SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE
HURRICANE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BY JUDGING THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGES. HOWEVER...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO ADJUST
THE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH PAULA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW SMALL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND RESULTS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES ABOUT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOON...THE
HURRICANE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...OR
WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO MEANDER OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
GRADUALLY FADING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. GIVEN SUCH
LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 18.6N  85.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 121738
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF PAULA AND
ENCOUNTERED STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 85 KNOTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY THAT WAS
SCHEDULED FOR 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1745Z 18.8N  85.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    95 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 

WTNT43 KNHC 122044
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER
SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE
OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR
981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE
5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT
12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA.  NOW THAT PAULA IS 
STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS
PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS
RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW
PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 19.2N  86.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N  86.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  86.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 22.0N  85.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 130241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
A 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE 
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH
AN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 0047 UTC SSMIS
PASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS
INSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE.  THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0...
RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 85 KT. 
 
PAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED
NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8.  THE TRACK REASONING
HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN
EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
CYCLONE WILL GET.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM
ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
GFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 
THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 19.9N  86.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N  86.1W    85 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 21.8N  85.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N  84.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT43 KNHC 130857
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
PAULA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE 96 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT AN 86-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OBSERVED WERE 81-82 KT. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF PAULA HAVE BEEN COOLING
DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85
KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN BY 3 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A FIELD OF
HIGHER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES...WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEARLY CONSTANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS...PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM
DEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER
MODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

PAULA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY NOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KT AND RECON INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PAULA DUE TO
VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF PAULA
INTERACTS WITH LAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE
OF THE WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 20.7N  86.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 22.3N  85.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N  83.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.9N  80.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT43 KNHC 131446
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
PAULA IS A SMALLER THAN USUAL HURRICANE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN TRACKED
ALL MORNING WITH BOTH WESTERN CUBA AND CANCUN RADARS. THE
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION WITH A
CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION DEFINING THE EYEWALL. VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
PREVIOUS WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER A LITTLE MORE
THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. PAULA IS ALREADY REACHING
THE AREA OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THAT PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
OR 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
ABOUT TO RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR SOON...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW
SHARP IT WILL BE. SOME RELIABLE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS CUBA AND OTHERS SHOW A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST OVER OR
VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR
DAYS...OR EARLIER.
 
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 21.3N  85.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 22.0N  85.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 22.6N  84.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 23.1N  83.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.1N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 132042
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE. 

HAVING SAID THAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW
THAT PAULA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE SHEAR DISRUPTED THE CLOUD
PATTERN AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY
DETACHED. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...AND A SMALL 8 N MI EYE AS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AIRCRAFT DATA STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR...AND
THE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER CUBA IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS...POSSIBLY SOONER. 

PAULA MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOW IT APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. 
THE HURRICANE ALREADY RECURVED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER PAULA ON
A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS LARGE. IN GENERAL...MODELS
MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING EASTWARD AND KEEP A WEAK
REMNANT LOW MEANDERING NEAR CUBA. BY THEN...PAULA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 21.7N  85.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 22.1N  85.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.7N  84.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  82.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 140237
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS
EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR
IMAGERY.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.  THE NEXT
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.
 
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE.  PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED
BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
ECMWF MODELS.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 21.9N  85.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.3N  84.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 22.7N  83.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 22.8N  82.1W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 140859
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS ENCOUNTERING 30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
SHOWS THAT THE EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL INTACT FOR NOW.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 72
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.
 
A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
TRYING TO STEER PAULA IN A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING
THIS MOVEMENT WITH THE RESULT BEING A SLOW INITIAL MOTION OF 050/4.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
FLOW TO INCREASE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS
NORTH AND WEST OF PAULA.  THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PAULA
TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST...WHILE THE
GFDL IS THE FARTHEST EAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 
SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
PAULA TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ONCE IT SHEARS APART.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 22.3N  84.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 22.6N  84.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 22.9N  82.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 22.9N  81.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 22.3N  80.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 141437
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN REPORTING HOURLY FIXES AND PLENTY OF
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE
CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN
WESTERN CUBA. BASED ON SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 60 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS NOT
COMPLETELY SHEARED YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF THE CUBAN TERRAIN AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 5
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS
PAULA WEAKENS FURTHER...AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN
BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY
ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS...BUT BY THEN PAULA IS FORECAST TO
JUST BE A REMNANT LOW.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 22.8N  84.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 23.1N  83.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  80.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  80.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 142044
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
THE CENTER OF PAULA MOVED OVER CUBA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA AROUND
NOON TODAY AND PRODUCED A WIND GUST FROM THE NORTH OF 68 MPH...110
KM/HR...AT THE WEATHER STATION IN LA PALMA. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME GRADUALLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS TO THE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO BOTH SHEAR AND THE
EFFECT OF LAND. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN THE AREA JUST MEASURED WINDS
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS OVER WATER TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF HAVANA...BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...AND THE CYCLONE COULD
BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.
 
PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER HAVANA AND CENTRAL CUBA.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THIS
POSSIBILITY EXISTS IF PAULA DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS
TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND CALLS
FOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...KEEPING PAULA ON AN EASTWARD TRACK
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 22.8N  82.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N  79.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N  78.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT43 KNHC 150259
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITES INDICATE TROPICAL
STORM PAULA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS
DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE MARKEDLY WARMED. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO
BECOME ELONGATED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR VERADERO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT IS BASED ON SFMR REPORTS OF 45 KT FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  

PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085/12. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THE
RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY
DIVERGENT NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THAT PAULA HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
 
NOTE...THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE REPORTED THAT A PEAK WIND
GUST TO 65 KT...120 KM/HR...OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT
MARIEL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 23.1N  81.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 23.1N  80.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.8N  77.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  77.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT43 KNHC 150834
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE
HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM CUBAN
STATIONS SINCE THE CENTER PASSED HAVANA...AND WHEN THE CENTER
PASSED VARADERO THE REPORTED PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1010 MB.  IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...
WITH ONLY ONE CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. 
BASED ON THE CUBAN DATA...PAULA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 085/12.  PAULA IS BEING STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A SIZEABLE SPREAD ON WHEN THE SOUTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.  THE TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPS.

PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HR.  SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 48 HR...SO THE
REMNANT LOW MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 23.1N  80.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 23.2N  79.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N  77.8W    25 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.4N  77.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N  77.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 151431
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE
THAT PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL
DEFINED AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED. THE REMNANT
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULA.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 22.8N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  78.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

