WTNT41 KNHC 010900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FELIX.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
PASSED OVER GRENADA.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16.  MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.  THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.  
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 12.4N  62.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 12.8N  64.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.4N  67.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 14.1N  71.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.6N  74.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  81.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR
GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE
WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING.  SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH
TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER.  IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69
KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.  WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
 
FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16.  A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  BEYOND
3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 12.3N  63.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 12.8N  66.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.4N  69.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.1N  72.9W    70 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.8N  76.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  82.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  91.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 012045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE STORM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR) SHOWED 60 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD.  THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT AND THE WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE VERY WARM. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
GFDL/HWRF ARE SO SLOW TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM.  SO FAR...THE
STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS STORM...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.
 
FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING.  A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. 
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 12.7N  65.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.1N  67.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.8N  71.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N  74.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 15.2N  78.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.3N  83.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 17.5N  88.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  92.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 020304
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE.  BASED ON THIS...
FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS. 
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.  IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.
 
FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS.  THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 12.7N  66.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.2N  69.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.7N  76.6W    90 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N  79.7W   100 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  84.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  88.5W   110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 020901
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93
KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION
AT ABOUT 0638Z.  IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER
LAYER OF THE SOUNDING.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 85 KT.  WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM
OVERPASS AT 0619Z.

FELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH
STEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD
WESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 
EVEN THE NOGAPS...AN EARLIER NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
AND BACK INTO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS PATHS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST AT 4-5 DAYS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON JUST HOW MUCH RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME.

ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE
OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES
BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY
UNCERTAIN.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 12.8N  68.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.2N  71.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.9N  75.0W   105 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.6N  78.6W   115 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N  81.9W   125 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  87.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  94.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.  THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. 
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16.  THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS.  IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 13.2N  70.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  72.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.4N  76.3W   110 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N  79.5W   120 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.8N  82.7W   125 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  94.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY.  FELIX
HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A
SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE
TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE.  THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT.  A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS
A SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE.  THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT.  A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE.  SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED.  FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES.  I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING
BEHIND IT.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY
3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS.  IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  AGAIN...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.6N  72.0W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.1N  74.5W   125 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.8N  78.0W   130 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N  81.1W   135 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.5W   135 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   135 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  91.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 022359
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.  THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. 
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT.  AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0000Z 13.8N  72.9W   145 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.1N  74.5W   150 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.8N  78.0W   145 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N  81.1W   145 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.5W   145 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   135 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  91.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 030256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
00Z.  GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT. 
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION.  THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW.  THE MAJOR
MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 13.9N  73.9W   145 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  76.6W   150 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  79.8W   145 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.6N  82.8W   145 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.2N  85.2W   145 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   135 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  96.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 030901
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931
MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB. 
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT
SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF
280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN
BE A LITTLE FASTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES
THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE
RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH
THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY
COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF
TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT
WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND
COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT
FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 14.1N  75.9W   145 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  78.7W   150 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  81.9W   145 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N  84.8W   125 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.9N  87.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N  91.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  95.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 031433
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD
BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT
AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON
VISUAL IMAGERY.  SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE
PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX.  HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN
TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION
WITH LAND.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH
RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO.  CLEARLY IF
FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE
MUCH WEAKER.  INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...
CONTINUES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO
THAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
UNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 14.3N  77.8W   140 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N  80.4W   150 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.1N  83.2W   145 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N  85.9W    90 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.3N  88.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  92.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 032100
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR
WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN.  THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT
COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE
WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.
HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY
WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA
SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND.  THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND.  SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER
CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17
KT.  THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX.  THIS REGIME
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME WEAKENING.  THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 14.3N  79.5W   115 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.5N  81.9W   120 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.9N  84.5W    90 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N  86.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.2N  88.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.6N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  96.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  99.5W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 040250
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SINCE 21Z...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. AN 18Z MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAD FORMED...AND OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DECAYED IN INFRARED IMAGES AND
THE OUTER FEATURE IS NOW MORE PROMINENT.  RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...UP TO T6.7...BUT I'M
GUESSING THAT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT YET
RECOVERED FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE WIND
FIELD.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT...WITH SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND
05Z.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17...AS FELIX CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THERE IS A LITTLE LESS RIDGING AHEAD OF FELIX AND SO SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FELIX BASICALLY ON TRACK. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FELIX OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH ONLY
THE 12Z UKMET AND 18Z NOGAPS TAKING FELIX BACK OVER WATER. THE 18Z
UKMET...WHICH IS AVAILABLE ONLY OUT TO 48 HOURS...IS ALSO A LITTLE
SOUTH OF ITS EARLIER RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW KEEPS FELIX
ENTIRELY OVER LAND.  AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE
TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SHARPLY
DOWNWARD AFTER 12 HOURS...AND IF THE TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES THE
SMALL CIRCULATION OF FELIX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN
SHOWN BELOW. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 14.4N  81.1W   115 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.6N  83.5W   125 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.1N  85.9W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.7N  88.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 16.4N  90.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  97.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 040900
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT...FELIX HAS AGAIN
STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT...HAS FALLEN TO 939 MB.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 148 KT...CORRESPONDING TO 133 KT AT
THE SURFACE...AND A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LOW-LAYER
MEAN WIND OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE WAS 132 KT.  ANOTHER DROPSONDE
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 147 KT...BUT THAT IS NOT LIKELY
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND.  THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE...INCLUDING
IN THE FEW IMAGES SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 07Z.  SINCE THE
PRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE INDICATING
STRENGTHENING...AND GIVEN THAT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE APPROACHING 7.0...FELIX COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FELIX CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14. THE EYE IS
ONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS FROM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST WITH A SLOW BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GFS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THOSE MODELS IN LATER
BRINGING FELIX OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN
THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT IS A
LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF FELIX.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE...THAT THIS WILL NOT BE JUST A COASTAL EVENT. VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR
WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS OR DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING'S LANDFALL.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 14.3N  82.5W   135 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.3N  84.5W    85 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N  86.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 14.9N  88.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N  90.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
FELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.  THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140
KT.  THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT
AT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT
AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3.  CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
ARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3
HOURS SINCE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY
THE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL.

THE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.3N  83.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.3N  85.7W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N  90.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 042038
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

FELIX CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER LAND AND THE CENTER IS NOW APPROACHING
THE HONDURAS BORDER.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED QUITE WELL
ORGANIZED UP TO THIS TIME AND THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPRESSIVE
SPIRAL BANDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING SOME FORMIDABLE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW.  MY INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
HONDURAS' HIGH MOUNTAINS.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 36-48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD WOBBLE EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION HAS
BEEN GENERALLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/12.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND SO
DOES THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.

THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE
STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25
INCHES.  THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 14.2N  85.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.3N  86.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.6N  88.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 050248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
FELIX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND.  THE CENTER HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...WITH
THE SITUATION BEING COMPLICATED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE
STORM POSSIBLY MOVING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL
PORTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/10.  FELIX SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN 24-36 HR.
 
THE MAJOR CONCERN IS NOW THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE
STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25
INCHES.  THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 14.1N  85.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.1N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.3N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1200Z...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 050836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007
 
SURFACE DATA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
FELIX IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND IS
DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE CENTER...IF IT
STILL EXISTS..IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  FELIX IS KEPT AS A 25
KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THAT THE
REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAND AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.  HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

FELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINS PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 14.0N  87.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.8N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

