WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION.  ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 270/19.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 12.8N  56.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.0N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 13.2N  62.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 13.6N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.2N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 15.5N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 17.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 18.5N  83.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 030259
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THESE DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED OR DEVELOPED
FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/19 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR
DATA AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
TAKING ERNESTO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL
MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE TO WESTERN CUBA BY 120 HOURS. THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK... MAINLY DUE
TO THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...WHICH HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE CROSS-TRACK
VARIATION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.

THE RATHER FAST FORWARD SPEED COMBINED WITH SOME MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT
AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF WARMER SSTS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
DECREASING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. IN FACT...IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK... 
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS
INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY
MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 13.4N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 13.7N  61.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 14.0N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 14.4N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 15.0N  70.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 16.3N  76.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 17.9N  81.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 19.7N  84.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 030852
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
APART FROM A COUPLE OF BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED AND SHRUNK AROUND THE CENTER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS
GIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST 850-MB WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AROUND
45 KT. 
 
THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE
SHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND
THE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/21...AS ERNESTO IS BEING STEERED
RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER
WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AND THE STRONGER
GFDL TURNING ERNESTO MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE INITIAL
MOTION...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA/TV15 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 13.5N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 14.0N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 14.4N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 14.9N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 15.6N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 17.0N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 18.5N  82.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 20.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 031454
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER.  FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.  

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.
 
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 13.7N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 13.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 14.4N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 15.0N  71.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 15.5N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 17.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 18.5N  83.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 20.5N  87.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 032035
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
BANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR
IS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING
THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING.  WESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
COULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18.   THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO 
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE.  HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN
A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN
THIS CASE.  
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 13.9N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 14.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 14.7N  69.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 15.3N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 15.9N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 17.0N  81.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 19.0N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 21.0N  88.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040847
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0135 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 14.1N  67.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.5N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.1N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 15.7N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 16.3N  79.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 17.5N  83.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 21.5N  90.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040852
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

CORRECTED TIME OF AMSU PASS IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS
FROM 0549 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A
MUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN
EARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN
WEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS
TIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
UKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 14.1N  67.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.5N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.1N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 15.7N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 16.3N  79.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 17.5N  83.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 21.5N  90.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 041445
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB.  I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES.  BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.4N  68.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 14.8N  71.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 15.5N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 15.7N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.5N  80.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 18.0N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 19.5N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  90.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 042031
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER
CYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND
NOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO
1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL
ESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.
 
AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO
FORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT...
INCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...RESULTING
IN ERNESTO TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY
THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 14.8N  70.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.2N  72.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.7N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 16.0N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 16.5N  81.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 19.5N  87.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 21.5N  90.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 050247
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STRONG CONVECTION...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1007 MB.  SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT YET FULLY
SAMPLED THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
FOUND EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  HOWEVER...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...WITH A SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED OF OVER 20 KT.  A
LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 285/19...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE
ADVISORY.  THE REASON FOR THIS TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...
THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RESUME A
WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER 24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  WHILE SOME SPREAD REMAINS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A
REDUCED FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HR...MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO BETWEEN 72-96 HR AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 24 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT TIME TO LIE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.  ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO
WILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN
THE TRENDS DURING THE PAST 24 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A LOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH
ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48 HR.  GIVE THE DIVERGENT
GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 15.4N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 15.8N  75.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 16.1N  78.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 16.3N  81.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 17.0N  82.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 18.5N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 20.5N  89.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/0000Z 22.0N  92.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 050843
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
DATA FROM THE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INTO ERNESTO
SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DISORGANIZED.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 1009 MB ON THE LAST FIX AND THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT NEAR
THE CENTER. THE PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT AND THE
HIGHEST SFMR WINDS WERE 40 TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAOB DATA FROM CURACAO...MODEL
ANALYSES AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE IMPINGING ON ERNESTO FROM THE SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR 
IN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS MAY
BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST DAY
OR SO. DESPITE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE GFDL
AND HWRF NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT AT A
SLOWER RATE COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT
TIME THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING LAND...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE
AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.
 
THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...
SHOWED THAT ERNESTO HAS ACCELERATED BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 275/19. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION RESULTS
IN A SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK OF ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE LEFT...
OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. APART FROM THIS ADJUSTMENT...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN SLOW
DOWN AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS OVER THE GULF. THE GFS...ECMWF...
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SHOWING LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND A TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE GFDL...UKMET AND SOME OF THE HFIP MODELS...ARE
FARTHER NORTH AND TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THROUGH 72 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE
USUALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS.  
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 15.1N  74.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.3N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 15.6N  80.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 16.0N  82.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 16.6N  83.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 18.5N  87.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 20.5N  91.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 21.6N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 051445
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LESS
WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  ALSO...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
ANALYSES INDICATE DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS HAS PROBABLY BEEN DISRUPTING THE
SYSTEM.  ASSUMING THAT ERNESTO IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC FACTOR...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE
FORWARD SPEED SLOWS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT CONTINUES TO BE BELOW THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE LATTER HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO STRENGTHENING.
 
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST...AT A FORWARD
SPEED OF AT LEAST 20 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD MOTION TO DECELERATE.  MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOWS A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A
LITTLE MORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE
GFDL AND U.K. MET MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD TURN.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFS FORECAST BARELY BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE GULF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 15.0N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 15.0N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 15.4N  81.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 15.9N  83.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 16.5N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 18.0N  89.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z 20.0N  92.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT45 KNHC 052039
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
ASIDE FROM A SMALL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST 
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN
DISORGANIZED PATCHES WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
DRY AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE
STORM...ALONG WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING RECENTLY AND...ASSUMING
THAT ERNESTO WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS...SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A DAY 
OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...THIS SEEMS
DUBIOUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HFIP INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE ANTICIPATED DECELERATION IS FINALLY OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO IS
PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A TROUGH DIPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ERNESTO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF...ARE SOUTH OF THIS
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 15.3N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 15.5N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.7N  84.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 17.5N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 19.0N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 21.5N  97.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT45 KNHC 060255
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -85C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A STRENGTHENING
TREND DESPITE THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 1003
MB. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 42 KT AND
THE HIGHEST ADJUSTED-SFMR SURFACE WIND HAS BEEN AROUND 44 KT. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
 
ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE
RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 15.0N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N  81.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.1N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.9N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.0N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  11/0000Z 20.5N  98.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 060847
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED
NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...AND THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS STILL SHOW ERNESTO APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO
48 HOURS...AND THAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF TH
DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
 
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT USING
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION
NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED FURTHER...WITH A LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF 275/10. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 15.1N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 15.4N  82.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.2N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 17.1N  86.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 17.7N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/0600Z 18.7N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST
 96H  10/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...ON THE COAST
120H  11/0600Z 19.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 061456
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION.  IT
IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS
IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HWRF MODEL.
 
WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  ALTHOUGH THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 15.8N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.2N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 16.8N  84.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 17.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 18.2N  88.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 19.0N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 19.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 062040
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...THE LAST COUPLE OF CENTER PENETRATIONS BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS INDICATED THAT THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS STOPPED FALLING...FOR NOW...AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
CORE CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHTNING DATA...HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED
IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SFMR
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
FURTHER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ERNESTO IS IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

AFTER THE EARLIER REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS NOW 295/10. 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...TO THE NORTH OF A RATHER WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE VERY FAR NORTH OVER THE GULF. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
TRACK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 16.2N  81.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.9N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.7N  87.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 19.2N  90.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 19.5N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 19.0N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 070252
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO
HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE
THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100
NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS
OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS
FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT
THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 30
HOURS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
TIGHTLY PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT
FOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR
THAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS
ABOUT 1C WARMER AND INTO EVEN A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT
18-24 HOURS...THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND ERNESTO COULD STILL BECOME
A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AFTER THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 17.0N  82.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.5N  84.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.3N  86.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 18.9N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
 48H  09/0000Z 19.3N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/0000Z 19.5N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 19.4N  97.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0000Z 19.2N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 070851
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AROUND
THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE
CYCLONE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO REPORTED PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 63 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT.  THESE DATA
SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH
ERNESTO STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DRY AIR...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SSTS OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND
BRINGS ERNESTO TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.  WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING WHEN THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THIS PORTION OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN TURN WESTWARD TO THE 
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION AND HAS BEEN
NUDGED SOUTHWARD AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 17.5N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 18.2N  85.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 18.8N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  08/1800Z 19.3N  90.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/0600Z 19.4N  92.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/0600Z 19.3N  96.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 19.0N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 071456
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT
SO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY
PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.  CIRRUS
MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE STORM.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL
PREDICTIONS.
 
CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST ARE REQUIRED.  ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
WESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 18.1N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 18.6N  86.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 071800
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
AND TRACK FORECAST.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THEREFORE THE
INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1800Z 18.5N  85.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.0N  86.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 19.4N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 072033
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX.  GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.  RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.
 
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 18.8N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 19.4N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/1800Z 19.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0600Z 19.8N  92.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1800Z 19.8N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1800Z 19.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 080247
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IMAGERY FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE THE
HURRICANE HAD A WELL-DEFINED 15-NMI DIAMETER EYE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...BUT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT
BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

RADAR FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 270/13 KT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS OF MEXICO...AND
WILL MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN YUCATAN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ERNESTO TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS AS
IT NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURS...
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
HIGH MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE
IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...
WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO.
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
WIND REPORTS FROM THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AND NOAA BUOY 42056.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.7N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER BANCO CHINCHORRO
 12H  08/1200Z 19.1N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
 24H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  09/1200Z 19.4N  94.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 19.2N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 18.7N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 080850
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE
OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.
 
ERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND
COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER LANDFALL...
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF MEXICO.
 
THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 18.9N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1800Z 19.1N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  09/0600Z 19.2N  93.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  09/1800Z 19.1N  95.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0600Z 18.8N  96.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/0600Z 18.5N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 080858
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM
 
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE
OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.
 
ERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND
COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER LANDFALL...
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF MEXICO.
 
THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 18.9N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1800Z 19.1N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  09/0600Z 19.2N  93.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  09/1800Z 19.1N  95.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0600Z 18.8N  96.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/0600Z 18.5N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 081453
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS AND...ASSUMING
ROUGHLY AN EXPONENTIAL DECAY RATE AFTER LANDFALL...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THE CENTER IS ABLE TO
MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE CYCLONE COULD RE-INTENSIFY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE
TRACK TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IN WHICH CASE
THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
OR LESS.
 
CENTER FIXES USING RADAR DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
BELIZE AND MEXICO ALONG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY
WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD
TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...
PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO.
 
BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS LESS
RESTRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 18.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 18.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 18.6N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0000Z 18.5N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1200Z 18.4N  97.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 081952
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT.  RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN THE
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT OF
RE-STRENGTHENING SHOULD DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE STAYS
OVER THE WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INTI AL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION.  THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN.  THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 18.9N  93.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0600Z 18.2N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 081955 AAA
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS AND...ASSUMING
ROUGHLY AN EXPONENTIAL DECAY RATE AFTER LANDFALL...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THE CENTER IS ABLE TO
MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE CYCLONE COULD RE-INTENSIFY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE
TRACK TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IN WHICH CASE
THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
OR LESS.
 
CENTER FIXES USING RADAR DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
BELIZE AND MEXICO ALONG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY
WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD
TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...
PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO.
 
BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS LESS
RESTRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 18.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 18.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 18.6N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0000Z 18.5N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1200Z 18.4N  97.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN...WHICH IS VERY NEAR
THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KT.  RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN
THE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT
OF RE-STRENGTHENING WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE
STAYS OVER THE WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE
RELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK TO THE COASTLINE...ONLY A SLIGHT
DIRECTIONAL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ERNESTO SPENDS OVER
WATER...AND ITS LANDFALL INTENSITY.
 
AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION.  THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN.  THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 18.9N  93.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST
 36H  10/0600Z 18.2N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 090301
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
THE ROBUST CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS FINALLY MOVED OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN MEXICO. INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM INLAND AREAS
TO OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND SEVERAL RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OF 55-57 KT IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOUT 30 NMI OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
GETS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 18.8N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 18.7N  93.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/1200Z 17.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 17.6N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 090848
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...AROUND 0600 UTC...MEASURED
A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT.  NORMALLY THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS..BASED ON
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 55-59 KT AND A STANDARD REDUCED MEAN BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND OF 58 KT FROM A DROPWINDSONDE...THAT THESE WINDS WERE
NOT BEING EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  ERNESTO APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 6 HOURS
OR SO OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN WHICH TO
INTENSIFY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...
ERNESTO SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF MEXICO.
 
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS
ACCELERATED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270 AT 14 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME DECELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A 
BEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL ENVELOPE
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 18.7N  93.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/0600Z 18.0N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/1800Z 17.7N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 091439
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO IS MOVING ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
VICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
MEXICO AND WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE RAIN IN THE AREA.  BASED ON
RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50
KNOTS.  SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN
ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS ALREADY TRAPPED SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND THIS
FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WESTSOUTHWEST TRACK...BRINGING
ERNESTO INLAND OVER MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IS A DAY OR SO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 18.2N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.8N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/1200Z 17.5N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 092035
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL
ON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND 
1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...
ERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER. 

SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT
WITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.

ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 18.1N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/0600Z 18.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 100241
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO OVER THE THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS ERNESTO IS
STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3
DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO
DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 18.1N  96.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 17.8N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 100841
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
A CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED
MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  ERNESTO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/11...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HR.  PLEASE SEE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS POSSIBILITY.
 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO
DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 18.0N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/1800Z 17.9N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 24H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

