WTNT42 KNHC 092036
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012
 
LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
WARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR
OVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT.  AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 13.7N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 13.6N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 13.5N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 13.5N  53.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 13.8N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 14.6N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 15.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 16.5N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 100240
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO
BANDING FEATURES APPARENT.  WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
30 KT.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY
41041 OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER LOOK AT THE
INTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT FOR NOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAVE SOME
NEGATIVE FACTORS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
INITIALLY...WHICH IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACKLUSTER
CONVECTION.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER WARMER WATERS...THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RISE...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THIS
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SHOWING ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
THE DAY 4 AND 5 PREDICTIONS HAVE BEEN REDUCED GIVEN THE LIKELY
PERSISTENCE OF THE SHEAR AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NON-DEVELOPMENT
TREND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 270/17.  THIS GENERAL TRACK AND
SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST COURSE IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE
NEW FORECAST...HOWEVER...STAYS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A SLOW AND POLEWARD BIAS
WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS IN THIS AREA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 13.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 13.6N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 13.6N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 13.7N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 14.1N  58.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 14.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 16.0N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 17.0N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 100840
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED
OVERNIGHT.  A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE REVEALED A
SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL BAND OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  NOAA BUOY 41041
REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1010.9 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED ABOUT 30 TO 40 N MI
SOUTH OF THE BUOY AROUND 0600 UTC.  BASED ON THE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 30 KT.
 
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SSTS AND REMAIN IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...DRY
AIR NEAR THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AS IT NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS INCREASING SHEAR WILL
LIKELY HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOW IT BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.  FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE
WEAKENING...BUT THAT IS ONE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS
SMALL...MAKING IT MORE PRONE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT
17 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED WESTWARD BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  BEYOND THREE DAYS THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS MODEL.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 13.6N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 13.6N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 13.7N  53.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 13.9N  56.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 14.3N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 15.3N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 16.5N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 17.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 101453
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012
 
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE STILL 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB.  WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL DATA AVAILABLE TO US AT THIS
TIME...WE ARE KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND THE UPDATED POSITION YIELDS A FASTER 12-HR MOTION OF
270/20 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NOT MUCH
GAIN IN LATITUDE IS EXPECTED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION AND
CONTINUES TO LIE CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
 
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE.  THE
ONLY ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER THAT APPEARS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
IS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY BEING AFFECTED BY SURROUNDING DRY AIR...WHICH COULD BE
COMPOUNDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FAST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR LESS STRENGTHENING AS WELL.  PROBABLY DUE TO THESE
FACTORS...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEGENERATE
THE CYCLONE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  AS
PLAUSIBLE AS THAT SCENARIO IS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL KEEPS
THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY.
 
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE EARLIER
THAN INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 13.7N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 13.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 13.8N  55.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 14.1N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 14.6N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 15.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 16.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 17.0N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 102033
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED.  IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE ELONGATING...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CENTER IS
EVEN CLOSED ANYMORE.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EVIDENCE APPEARS TO BE MOUNTING THAT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOON...AND THE LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  GIVEN THE CURRENT FRAGILE STATE OF
THE DEPRESSION...AND THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD...
THE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN SHOWS DISSIPATION
INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3.
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST...NOW WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 270/21 KT.  A FAST WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.
 
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE
DEPRESSION WILL EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  THE VARIOUS
GOVERNMENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 13.7N  51.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 14.2N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 14.5N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 14.7N  66.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 110233
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS
RATHER SHAPELESS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE STILL T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATION AT NOAA
BUOY 41040 OF 31 KNOTS AT 2246Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY
MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR
INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...
WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 13.9N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 14.1N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 14.3N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 14.6N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 14.8N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 110833
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS
UNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A
30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A RAPID 275/21.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED
BY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION NEAR THE
48 HR POINT.
 
GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 14.0N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.2N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.4N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 14.6N  67.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

