WTNT42 KNHC 080301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009
 
A RECENTLY RECEIVED TRMM PASS FROM 2324 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED
BAND BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOCATION OF THE SUSPECTED CENTER.
BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FRED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CURRENTLY ANALYZES EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS OVER
FRED. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND
WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER WARM WATER...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND THAT
TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO ICON FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO LGEM...SINCE THAT MODEL TYPICALLY HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE RECENT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AS THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT CAUSES THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD IN NORTH OF FRED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION OF THE CENTER. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 11.8N  26.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 12.0N  28.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 12.6N  30.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 13.6N  31.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 14.8N  32.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  34.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N  34.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 21.0N  34.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 080841
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

FRED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGES. 
THE STORM IS EXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  BASED ON THE
BANDING...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE AT LEAST 3.0.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET AT 45 KT. 
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
OF THE SYSTEM.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.      
GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHORT-TERM
ENVIRONMENT...FRED CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY
3.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FRED.  THAT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN...WILL PROBABLY
INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 DOES NOT
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUITE AS FAST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND
275/13.  THE NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
OF FRED IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME ERODED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 28N AND 40W.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
FRED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVLOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 WITH A VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HINTS AT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT AT 96-120
HOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE FRED MUCH FARTHER NORTH IN 5
DAYS...BUT ARE BEING TREATED AS OUTLIERS FOR THE TIME BEING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 11.8N  27.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 12.1N  29.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 13.0N  30.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 13.9N  32.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 15.1N  33.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N  34.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N  34.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 20.5N  34.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 081434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF INNER CORE FEATURES AND THE
FIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE.  AN 0808 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND 1200 UTC SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB.  THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN WARM WATERS
AND LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.  THEREAFTER...SSTS DECREASE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 40W COULD START TO INDUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY
OF FRED AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
LESS ROBUST BUT STILL MAKES FRED A HURRICANE.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THAT GUIDANCE AND IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND THE DAY 3-5 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
MODEL.
 
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF
ABOUT 275/12.  FOR THE TIME BEING...FRED IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40W MOVES EASTWARD.  THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY DAY THREE.  STEERING CURRENTS BECOME LIGHT AFTER THAT
TIME...WITH SOME HINTS OF A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH CAUSING A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.  THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ARE THE
ONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION TO THE
PATTERN...SHOWING FRED MISSING THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH CAUSES A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 11.9N  28.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 12.4N  30.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 13.3N  32.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 14.4N  33.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 15.7N  34.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  34.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N  34.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 082031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
 
HIGH-RESOLUTION METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT FRED REMAINS A
WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH PROMINENT BANDING AND
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  A 1514Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWS
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYEWALL.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE
IMAGES SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.  

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
CONFLICTING SIGNALS PRESENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E PASS SHOWED
A CLOSED RING PATTERN ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A
HARBINGER OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE.  IN COMBINATION WITH
WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SHEAR
INCREASING BY TOMORROW...WHICH COULD LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM SHOWING ONLY A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL STILL HAVE FRED REACHING
CATEGORY 2 STATUS.  THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.  THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS...STRONGER
SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FRED...AND IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FRED WAS ONLY A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/12.  A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY FEATURE STEERING FRED.  HOWEVER A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO GRADUALLY BEND FROM WEST-NORTHWEST...
NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH BY DAY THREE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THAN THIS MORNING.  AFTER 72
HR...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTING MORE OF A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER...PERHAPS DUE TO THEIR DEPICTION OF A
STRONGER CYCLONE INTERACTING MORE WITH THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LONGER-RANGE...
BUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 12.1N  29.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 12.8N  31.3W    70 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.9N  32.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 15.2N  33.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.4N  34.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 18.0N  34.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  33.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 22.0N  34.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 090247
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
 
THE LATEST FEW INFRARED IMAGES FROM METEOSAT-9 INDICATE THAT FRED
HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OBSERVED IN 1934 UTC
WINDSAT DATA AND 2112 UTC SSM/IS DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. 
THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
TO -80 C...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS EXPANDING AND BECOMING
MORE AXISYMMETRIC.  TWO RECENT AMSU OVERPASSES YIELDED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 68 KT AND 70 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...AND FRED IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.
 
FRED HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10.  THE NARROW RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS NOW BREAKING DOWN DUE TO TWO
SHORTWAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N 37W AND NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  AS A RESULT...FRED WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE
MODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY
MUCH.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE BOTH CONSISTENTLY
BEEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...AND THEY HAVE DONE
A BETTER JOB THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NOT PULLING FRED NORTHWARD TOO
SOON.  THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT FRED MIGHT NOT TURN AS
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE SOME SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
 
FRED APPEARS TO HAVE A CLEAR PATH FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND LOW
SHEAR.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAST STRENGTHENING...
AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS ONLY 21 PERCENT AT THE
MOMENT.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO PEAK FRED
AT 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AT
36 HOURS ONCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE.  SSTS ONLY
DECREASE GRADUALLY NORTH OF FRED...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR
AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN
MODULATING THE INTENSITY BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 12.6N  30.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 13.3N  31.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N  33.1W    80 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 15.7N  34.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.8N  34.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 18.3N  34.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 20.0N  33.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 23.0N  34.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 090835
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS
OF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0. 
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  FRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS.  THIS
COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
300/11.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF
20N.  DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS
A DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 13.2N  31.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 14.1N  32.7W   100 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 15.4N  33.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.5N  34.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 17.3N  34.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 18.4N  34.2W    60 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 20.6N  34.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  34.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 091442
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009
 
FRED HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW A
MAJOR HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 102 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS NEAR
115 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING FRED
THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS CAUSE FRED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS COOLER
AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR.  THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.   THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
305/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AS MOST
GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECELERATES FRED AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF FRED BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...THEN ENDS UP 
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
TAKE A MORE WESTWARD PATH.  THE TWO BIGGEST OUTLIERS TO THIS
FORECAST ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP IT AS A DEEP
CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD.  THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 13.9N  32.4W   105 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.9N  33.5W   110 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 16.2N  34.3W   105 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.2N  34.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  34.6W    80 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 18.7N  34.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  34.2W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 23.5N  36.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 092033
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009
 
THE EYE OF FRED HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE
EYEWALL REMAINS STRONG WITH AN OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE
BEFITTING A MAJOR HURRICANE.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW AS FRED
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER
TEMPERATURES.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ONLY GET MORE HOSTILE
AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
NEAR FRED.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HWRF/GFDL NOW SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS
BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF FRED DISSIPATED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/11.  FRED CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN
LATITUDE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES TO ITS NORTH. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
DECELERATING IN A DAY OR SO...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
THEREAFTER.  AT ONE EXTREME...THE UKMET HAS FRED MISSING A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE CYCLONE
TO STALL SOUTH OF 17N AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD UNDER A NEW
RIDGE.  A DIFFERENT SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS
MODELS...WHICH SHOW FRED BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWARD BY THAT
TROUGH AND APPROACHING 30N BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.  AT THIS
POINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE IDEA THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG-RANGE...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY
5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 14.8N  33.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 15.8N  34.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N  34.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.8N  34.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 18.3N  34.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  33.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  34.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N  37.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 100243
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009
 
THE EYE OF FRED COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND
2300 UTC...AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS ERODING
THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  ANALYSES
FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF ABOUT 20
KT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
HURRICANE.  IN FACT...A 2308 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE DECOUPLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL EYEWALL.  FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND
4.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT IS DOWN TO 5.0. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 90 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY ABOUT
DAY 3...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
ABOVE 30 KT AND THE SSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...SO QUICKER
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS
SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF APPEAR UNREALISTICALLY STRONG DURING THE
HIGH SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS FRED AS A
DEPRESSION AT DAY 5...IT IS ENTIRELY FEASIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/9 MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IF THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE IN FACT BECOMING DECOUPLED. 
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  BY 48 HOURS...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. 
FRED SHOULD THEN BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...WHICH ALL MAINTAIN FRED AS A DEEP SYSTEM
AND ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 15.3N  33.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 16.2N  34.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.1N  34.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 17.8N  34.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 18.4N  34.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N  33.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 22.0N  35.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     15/0000Z 23.5N  38.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 100834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009
 
FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD
AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT.  THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO
UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.

THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10.  THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THEREAFTER...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND
BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.9N  34.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N  35.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  34.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  34.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N  34.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N  35.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 101435
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT
ELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96
HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL
MEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS.  BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING
STRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 16.8N  35.1W    85 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  35.4W    75 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  35.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 18.2N  35.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.6N  34.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  35.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  38.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 102038
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009
 
THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
CONVECTION IS STILL DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS MOSTLY
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON 
LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MASSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE VERY
SOON. THESE WINDS ARE FUELED BY A STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND
PERSISTENT MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF FRED. 
THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS WEAKENING...AND THIS PROCESS SHOULD
ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...FRED
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW.        

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS...BUT SOON
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY OR BEGIN TO MEANDER AROUND 19 DEGREES NORTH
DURING THE 2 OR 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING FRED OR ITS
REMNANTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY THEN...FRED WILL
PROBABLY BE A VERY WEAK SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. IN IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS CHANGED...AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY BEND THE TRACK WESTWARD. A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO...SOME OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF
TURNED FRED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD AFRICA OR EUROPE. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 17.3N  35.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.9N  35.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.1N  35.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  35.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  35.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  36.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 21.5N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 110240
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF FRED. A
COMPARISON OF THE 37- AND 85-GHZ CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM A 2212 UTC
TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20-25 N MI NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT EYEWALL IS COMPLETELY ERODED ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE. THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS FRED DUE TO 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AFTER THAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN
THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FRED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS AND ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW
BY DAY 4.

THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND FRED ARE BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  ONLY A SLOW
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS FRED TEMPORARILY RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH.  ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT
SHOW AS MUCH OF AN EASTWARD BEND AS THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. 
STILL...THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND FRED COULD MEANDER A BIT
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  35.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N  34.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N  34.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N  34.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  36.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 110848
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER FRED...SO IT
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE ANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES.  OVERALL...
CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLDING STEADY NEAR 77 KT.  YET
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING
ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT...BUT
THAT ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSING STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR THEREAFTER.  ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION OF FRED SHOULD CAUSE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS AND
HELP TO DIMINISH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS MODEL.
 
IT APPEARS THAT FRED HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH OR 000/3.
LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST PERHAPS NUDGING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD.   ONCE FRED WEAKENS INTO A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A REBUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HR THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST
AFTERWARDS...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.7N  35.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  35.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N  34.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.2N  34.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N  34.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 20.0N  37.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 21.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z 22.5N  47.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 111434
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING SINCE YESTERDAY
AND HAS BECOME EVEN MORE ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR. MICROWAVE DATA
SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ONLY TO THE NORTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON 4.0 AND 4.5
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE
CYCLONE EARLIER TODAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT FRED WILL SURVIVE
SUCH HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.

FRED IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. IT IS
BASICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING TO WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF THE CYCLONE.  TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW
BY KEEPING FRED MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE BY MOVING THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE TREND.
   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 18.0N  35.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.1N  34.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N  34.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N  34.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N  35.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N  38.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N  49.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 112039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY SHEAR AND
CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS STILL
NEAR A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT MICROWAVE IMAGES...
ALTHOUGH SPARSE...CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...AND THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. SINCE THE SHEAR OVER FRED
IS NOT GOING TO RELAX...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND FRED WILL
GRADUALLY FADE.

FRED IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...AND HAS BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. BRAVO TO MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH
REALLY ANTICIPATED THIS RARE MOTION FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE CYCLONE
LOCATED IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND BELT. LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH...A PATTERN MORE COMMON FOR SEPTEMBER...PROVIDING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING TO WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FRED. THE
WESTWARD BEND AFTER THREE DAYS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 18.1N  34.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  34.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.4N  34.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.8N  34.9W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  36.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 21.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N  50.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 120233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN A DEGREE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.5 FROM SAB AND 3.0 FROM TAFB...
AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2100 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WINDS
HIGHER THAN ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DATA-T NUMBERS AND ASSUMES THAT RAIN WAS
ATTENUATING THE WIND SIGNAL SOMEWHAT IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA. WITH THE
WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND FRED MOVING OVER MARGINAL
SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER THAT
TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRED COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE 5-DAY PERIOD...AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

A 2016 UTC SSMI PASS...A 1941 UTC SSMIS PASS...AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
ALL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRED IS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
VERY SLOW...060/02. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE NORTHWEST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. BY 72 HOURS...LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS LEFT OF FRED...AND SHOULD IMPART A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE  WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...WHICH IS A FAR
SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...AND IS NEAR OR JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 18.0N  33.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.1N  33.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N  33.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N  34.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  35.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 22.0N  40.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 23.5N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N  51.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 120309
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES

FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN A DEGREE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC HAD DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM SAB AND 3.0
FROM TAFB...WHILE FINAL T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 AND
4.0...REPSECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2100 UTC DID NOT
SHOW ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS
AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA...ASSUMING THAT RAIN WAS ATTENUATING THE WIND
SIGNAL SOMEWHAT. WITH THE WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND
FRED MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRED COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE
5-DAY PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

A 2016 UTC SSMI PASS...A 1941 UTC SSMIS PASS...AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
ALL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRED IS LOCATED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
VERY SLOW...060/02. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE NORTHWEST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. BY 72 HOURS...LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS LEFT OF FRED...AND SHOULD IMPART A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE  WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...WHICH IS A FAR
SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...AND IS NEAR OR JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 18.0N  33.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.1N  33.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N  33.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N  34.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  35.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 22.0N  40.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 23.5N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N  51.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 120846
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS SHEARED APART THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION
AT LEAST 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  A 0358Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWED BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 40-45 KT...AND ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN
OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT.  THERE IS NO REASON TO FORECAST ANYTHING BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  FRED WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF
REGENERATION IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SHEAR
AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE PROBABLY
WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF FRED AT THAT TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK.  THEREAFTER FRED...OR THE REMNANTS
THEREOF...IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  BESIDES THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH HAS DISPLAYED A
SOUTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 17.8N  33.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N  33.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N  33.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  35.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 20.5N  37.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 22.5N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 24.0N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N  53.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 121433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FRED IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS DID SHOW SEVERAL REALISTIC 35-40 KT WINDS...MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 1.5 AND 2.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. ASSUMING THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AS FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A
RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL
WATER TEMPERATURES...AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...
FRED WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CHANCE...ALBEIT REMOTE...OF
REGENERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEIR
REPRESENTATION OF FRED SEEMS TOO STRONG GIVEN ITS CURRENT
APPEARANCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
EVEN MORE ADVERSE THAN THEY ARE NOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED WILL
DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.
 
FRED HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES DO YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 180/03.  SINCE
FRED HAS NOW BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITHIN A RATHER
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF FRED SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST...SOUTH OF A BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
THE SHORT-TERM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 17.5N  33.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N  33.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.4N  34.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.3N  36.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N  38.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.5N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 122036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009
 
OTHER THAN A SHORT-LIVED PUFF OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL-REMOVED FROM
THE CIRCULATION CENTER...FRED IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NO CENTRAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRED SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC....AND FRED IS NO LONGER
CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALSO MEANS THAT FRED IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AND IS NOW DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 30 KT...BASED UPON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SINCE THAT TIME. WHAT
REMAINS OF FRED SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL MAINTAIN THE REMNANTS OF FRED DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD MAKE REGENERATION A SLIM POSSIBILITY.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON FRED.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 17.7N  33.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.1N  34.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N  35.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.8N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 21.1N  39.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

