WTNT44 KNHC 210855
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH AN AMSU
OVERPASS..INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAVE COOLED TO -70 CELSIUS. 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB.  THESE ESTIMATES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE DEPRESSION TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. 

THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LISA FILLING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING
CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A RATHER SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.  BY DAY 2...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
INDICATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NHC OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS...AND IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 17.7N  31.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  31.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.4N  31.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 18.7N  31.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N  32.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.8N  34.3W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N  35.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N  37.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 211445
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED IN A 21/0932Z SSMIS OVERPASS. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF LISA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45 KT.

AFTER A BRIEF JOG TO THE NORTHEAST A FEW HOURS AGO...LISA HAS
RESUMED A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36-48 HOURS...
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND
FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS TAKING LISA
DUE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE NOGAPS/GFDN
MODELS MOVE LISA DUE WEST. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD OUT EVENLY BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. SUCH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING LISA
IS FORECAST TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 27C. THE DRIER AIR AND COOLER WATER MAY PUT THE BREAKS ON THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
48-72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT MOVE LISA NORTH OF
20N LATITUDE...WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FROM 72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 18.1N  31.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N  31.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 18.7N  31.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N  32.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.4N  33.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.1N  34.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 20.9N  35.8W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N  37.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
AFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE
TIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF
AND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 18.3N  31.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.6N  31.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N  31.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N  32.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.7N  33.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.4N  34.7W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  36.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N  38.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 220233
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
  
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LISA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27 C. WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY
AIR...SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. 

LISA APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/2. 
THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE AND AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A
SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE.  BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF LISA.  THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 18.2N  31.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N  31.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N  31.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.7N  31.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.1N  32.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.7N  33.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N  35.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT44 KNHC 220841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LISA.  THE
CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL MASS OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH WITH FEWER BANDING FEATURES THAN YESTERDAY.  SEVERAL RECENT
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT CO-LOCATED...A SIGN THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING IMPACTED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC ARE AT 2.5 AND
3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES
IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT IT BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  A SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION FROM THESE FIXES
YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 060/4.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY DIVERGENT BUT GENERALLY SHOWS LISA DRIFTING SOUTH OR EAST IN
A REGION OF WEAK STEERING DURING THE 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A TURN
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS A
WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STORM.  GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS SLOWED FURTHER UNTIL A MORE
ESTABLISHED TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF LISA
THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT IN 24-48 HOURS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
IMPARTING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM...BUT SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
DURING THIS TIME.  AFTER ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST A STRENGTHENING OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER
LISA...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE LISA IS LOCATED AT THAT TIME...AND THE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS FORECAST TRACK MAKES THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT DOWNWARD BEFORE 72 HOURS BUT REMAINS AT OR
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL OUTPUT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 18.0N  30.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  30.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N  30.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  30.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.8N  30.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  32.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N  35.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 221437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
CENTER...BUT MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AROUND
THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45
KT AND 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  A FEW MICROWAVE PASSES...PARTICULARLY A
0919 UTC SSMIS PASS...INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF LISA HAS DRIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 125 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TRAPPED IN A
MID-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER AFRICA...A
RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A SHARP TROUGH TO
THE NORTH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS.  AFTER 48
HOURS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE
AND THE AFRICAN RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD...NUDGING LISA A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE COL...THE SHEAR
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND LISA...AND THAT COULD BE
WHAT IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT INCREASING SHEAR AFTER THAT TIME SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER
48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH HAS AGAIN BEEN
LOWERED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 17.1N  30.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.1N  30.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N  30.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N  30.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  31.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N  33.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N  35.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  38.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT44 KNHC 222032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA HAS A ROBUST CIRCULATION...BUT ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED TO NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOUR HOURS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KT.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHERE
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS RATHER LOW.  THEREFORE ONLY A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.  WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED FROM DAYS 3-5 AS 30-40 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
DEVELOPS OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST INDICATES LISA BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD
HAVE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH BY THAT TIME.
 
LISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS 090/3 BASED ON A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT LISA COULD DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AFRICA BUILDS WESTWARD.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAY 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 17.7N  30.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N  29.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  29.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.1N  30.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 18.6N  31.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  32.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  35.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 24.0N  38.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT44 KNHC 230247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  A 2340 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.  LISA COULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND IN LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER
THAT TIME...WESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING.
 
LISA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/4.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A SHARP
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH CUTS-OFF AND SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  29.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N  29.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N  29.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.4N  30.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N  31.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  32.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N  35.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 25.5N  38.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT44 KNHC 230836
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM PRIMARILY
NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT GENERALLY LACK MUCH
ORGANIZATION. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LISA HAS ALSO BECOME
MORE ASYMMETRIC DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SEEMS PARTIALLY
INVOLVED WITH A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0600 UTC HAVE
DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THESE
ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. AS LISA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEARBY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF LISA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULT IN WEAKENING WHICH
COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
 
LISA HAS CONTINUED MOVING EASTWARD IN A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04.  AS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPARTING THIS MOTION LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF LISA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL/
HWRF CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT OUTLIERS AS A RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING.
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...DOWNPLAYING THE
CONTRIBUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.7N  29.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.1N  29.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N  29.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.1N  30.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N  31.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N  32.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  35.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N  38.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 231433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF
LISA. A 23/0907Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAD FORMED AND WRAPPED BETTER THAN HALF
WAY AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 FROM SAB.
UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT T3.3/51 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE RECENT
UPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA.

LISA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OF
360/02 IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN NUDGING LISA EASTWARD THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO
FILL IN AND BEGIN TO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS OF ADVISORY TRACK...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT
SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NOW THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SOUTHWESTERLY ARE MOVING AWAY FROM LISA...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. HOWEVER...THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
PROCESS. THE LOWEST SHEAR AND BEST MOISTURE PROFILES FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LISA DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER
SSTS...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF ANOTHER
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 17.5N  28.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.4N  29.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.2N  29.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N  30.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  31.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  32.2W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.2N  35.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N  37.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 232037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
MICROWAVE DATA A FEW HOURS AGO GAVE US A HINT THAT LISA WAS BECOMING
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOW CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW MORE
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WITH FAIR OUTFLOW.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS AND LISA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY OF 24 TO 36
HOURS FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

LISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOUR OR SO.  THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS A SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.  THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE LISA ON A
GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. TRACK
MODEL OUTPUT RESEMBLES A FAN...WITH TRACKS VARYING FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE LARGE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.5N  28.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N  28.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N  28.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N  29.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N  30.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N  32.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  34.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N  36.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 210855
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH AN AMSU
OVERPASS..INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAVE COOLED TO -70 CELSIUS. 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB.  THESE ESTIMATES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE DEPRESSION TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. 

THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LISA FILLING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING
CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A RATHER SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.  BY DAY 2...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
INDICATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NHC OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS...AND IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 17.7N  31.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  31.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.4N  31.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 18.7N  31.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N  32.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.8N  34.3W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N  35.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N  37.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 


WTNT44 KNHC 211445
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED IN A 21/0932Z SSMIS OVERPASS. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF LISA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45 KT.

AFTER A BRIEF JOG TO THE NORTHEAST A FEW HOURS AGO...LISA HAS
RESUMED A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36-48 HOURS...
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND
FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS TAKING LISA
DUE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE NOGAPS/GFDN
MODELS MOVE LISA DUE WEST. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD OUT EVENLY BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. SUCH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING LISA
IS FORECAST TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 27C. THE DRIER AIR AND COOLER WATER MAY PUT THE BREAKS ON THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
48-72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT MOVE LISA NORTH OF
20N LATITUDE...WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FROM 72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 18.1N  31.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N  31.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 18.7N  31.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N  32.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.4N  33.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.1N  34.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 20.9N  35.8W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N  37.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
AFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE
TIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF
AND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 18.3N  31.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.6N  31.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N  31.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N  32.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.7N  33.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.4N  34.7W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  36.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N  38.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 220233
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
  
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LISA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27 C. WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY
AIR...SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. 

LISA APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/2. 
THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE AND AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A
SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE.  BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF LISA.  THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 18.2N  31.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N  31.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N  31.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.7N  31.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.1N  32.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.7N  33.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N  35.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 


WTNT44 KNHC 220841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LISA.  THE
CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL MASS OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH WITH FEWER BANDING FEATURES THAN YESTERDAY.  SEVERAL RECENT
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT CO-LOCATED...A SIGN THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING IMPACTED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC ARE AT 2.5 AND
3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES
IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT IT BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  A SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION FROM THESE FIXES
YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 060/4.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY DIVERGENT BUT GENERALLY SHOWS LISA DRIFTING SOUTH OR EAST IN
A REGION OF WEAK STEERING DURING THE 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A TURN
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS A
WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STORM.  GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS SLOWED FURTHER UNTIL A MORE
ESTABLISHED TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF LISA
THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT IN 24-48 HOURS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
IMPARTING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM...BUT SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
DURING THIS TIME.  AFTER ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST A STRENGTHENING OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER
LISA...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE LISA IS LOCATED AT THAT TIME...AND THE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS FORECAST TRACK MAKES THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT DOWNWARD BEFORE 72 HOURS BUT REMAINS AT OR
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL OUTPUT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 18.0N  30.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  30.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N  30.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  30.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.8N  30.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  32.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N  35.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 


WTNT44 KNHC 221437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
CENTER...BUT MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AROUND
THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45
KT AND 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  A FEW MICROWAVE PASSES...PARTICULARLY A
0919 UTC SSMIS PASS...INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF LISA HAS DRIFTED
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 125 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TRAPPED IN A
MID-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER AFRICA...A
RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A SHARP TROUGH TO
THE NORTH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS.  AFTER 48
HOURS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE
AND THE AFRICAN RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD...NUDGING LISA A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE COL...THE SHEAR
DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND LISA...AND THAT COULD BE
WHAT IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT INCREASING SHEAR AFTER THAT TIME SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER
48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH HAS AGAIN BEEN
LOWERED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 17.1N  30.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.1N  30.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N  30.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N  30.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  31.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N  33.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N  35.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  38.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 


WTNT44 KNHC 222032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA HAS A ROBUST CIRCULATION...BUT ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED TO NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOUR HOURS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KT.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHERE
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS RATHER LOW.  THEREFORE ONLY A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.  WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED FROM DAYS 3-5 AS 30-40 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
DEVELOPS OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST INDICATES LISA BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD
HAVE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH BY THAT TIME.
 
LISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS 090/3 BASED ON A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT LISA COULD DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AFRICA BUILDS WESTWARD.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAY 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 17.7N  30.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N  29.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  29.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.1N  30.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 18.6N  31.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  32.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  35.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 24.0N  38.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 


WTNT44 KNHC 230247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010
 
LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  A 2340 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.  LISA COULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND IN LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER
THAT TIME...WESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING.
 
LISA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/4.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A SHARP
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH CUTS-OFF AND SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  29.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N  29.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N  29.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.4N  30.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N  31.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  32.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N  35.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 25.5N  38.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 


WTNT44 KNHC 230836
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM PRIMARILY
NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT GENERALLY LACK MUCH
ORGANIZATION. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LISA HAS ALSO BECOME
MORE ASYMMETRIC DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SEEMS PARTIALLY
INVOLVED WITH A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0600 UTC HAVE
DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THESE
ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. AS LISA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEARBY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF LISA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULT IN WEAKENING WHICH
COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
 
LISA HAS CONTINUED MOVING EASTWARD IN A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04.  AS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPARTING THIS MOTION LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF LISA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL/
HWRF CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT OUTLIERS AS A RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING.
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...DOWNPLAYING THE
CONTRIBUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.7N  29.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.1N  29.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N  29.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.1N  30.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N  31.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N  32.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  35.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N  38.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 


WTNT44 KNHC 231433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF
LISA. A 23/0907Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAD FORMED AND WRAPPED BETTER THAN HALF
WAY AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 FROM SAB.
UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT T3.3/51 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE RECENT
UPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA.

LISA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OF
360/02 IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN NUDGING LISA EASTWARD THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO
FILL IN AND BEGIN TO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS OF ADVISORY TRACK...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT
SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NOW THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SOUTHWESTERLY ARE MOVING AWAY FROM LISA...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. HOWEVER...THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
PROCESS. THE LOWEST SHEAR AND BEST MOISTURE PROFILES FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LISA DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER
SSTS...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF ANOTHER
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 17.5N  28.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.4N  29.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.2N  29.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N  30.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  31.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  32.2W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.2N  35.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N  37.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 232037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
MICROWAVE DATA A FEW HOURS AGO GAVE US A HINT THAT LISA WAS BECOMING
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOW CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW MORE
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WITH FAIR OUTFLOW.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS AND LISA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY OF 24 TO 36
HOURS FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

LISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOUR OR SO.  THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS A SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.  THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE LISA ON A
GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. TRACK
MODEL OUTPUT RESEMBLES A FAN...WITH TRACKS VARYING FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE LARGE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.5N  28.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N  28.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N  28.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N  29.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N  30.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N  32.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  34.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N  36.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 


WTNT44 KNHC 240253
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010
 
OVERALL...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
EARLIER WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUTER BANDS ON THE INCREASE.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED...
HOWEVER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LOWER THAN
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
FORECAST IN 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
HAPPENED SOONER.
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  MORE RECENTLY...
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED...WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/4.  THE
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
BY LATE TOMORROW AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LISA.
MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER CLUSTERED ON THIS
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE HWRF/GFDL ARE A LOT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN
THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE....GENERALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.1N  28.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.7N  28.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N  28.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.4N  29.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.8N  30.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  32.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  34.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  36.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 


WTNT44 KNHC 240844
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LISA IN RECENT HOURS AS CONVECTION
IN A BAND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DECREASING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 2.0 AND 2.5
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR KEEPING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT. THE POSSIBILITY OF LISA INTENSIFYING
IS DECREASING. IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO REACH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
COOLER WATERS...AND HIGHER STABILITY. THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROMOTE
A STEADY WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE RAPID THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN MOST OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
AN 0349 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE
CENTER OF LISA. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/04. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LISA
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA. AFTER
THAT...A WEAKER LISA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT BUT NOT AS
FAR EAST AS THE GFDL/HWRF/UKMET WHICH GENERALLY HAVE STRONGER AND
LIKELY UNREALISTIC REPRESENTATIONS OF LISA...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 18.4N  27.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.2N  27.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 20.6N  28.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.1N  28.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.6N  29.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  32.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 


WTNT44 KNHC 241438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND NOW WRAPS ABOUT
THREE-FOURTHS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
TO NEAR -80C JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY HAVE BEEN HINTING OF A BANDING-EYE FEATURE TRYING TO FORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...TAFB AODT ESTIMATES
OF T3.4/53 KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53
KT. A 24/1146Z ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED 33-KT WINDS EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY SOME UNDER SAMPLING OCCURRING DUE TO
THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANALYZED.
 
SATELLITE MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL FIXES INDICATE LISA IS NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 360/06. THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS LISA MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SAHARAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS LISA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND
ENCOUNTERS MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT... THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED RIGHTWARD
TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS STILL ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD INTENSIFY MORE THAN FORECAST
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS CYCLONE HAS HAD A LONG
HISTORY OF APPEARING TO GET STRONGER...ONLY TO HAVE THE CYCLONE
INGEST DRY AIR NEARBY THAT HAS CAUSED THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AND SOMETIMES EVEN DISSIPATE. BY 24 HOURS...LISA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS BELOW 26C AND ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 20-40 KT. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE DISSIPATION IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 18.9N  27.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.8N  27.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.2N  28.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.9N  28.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.3N  29.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  29.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 28.0N  30.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 242045
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LISA HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. A RECENT
TRMM OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF
ABOUT 8-10 NMI...AND VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY HAVE BEEN HINTING
THAT AN EYE HAS ALSO BEEN TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...TAFB AODT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53 KT...AND
UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53 KT. GIVEN THE VERY
SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH RESTRICTS THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY TECHNIQUES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA
COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
LISA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LARGE SAHARAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE. BY 48 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE EXPECTED RESULT IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS WILL DECOUPLE IN 72-96 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LARGE
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN
CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MOVE LISA NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
72 HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE SCENARIOS ARE
BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THEIR KNOWN BIAS IN RESISTING
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
NHC CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING AT LEAST 200
NMI TO THE NORTH OF LISA. THIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO TAP IN TO DESPITE THE SUB-26C SSTS
THAT LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS
LISA IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. LISA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 120
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AT ALL TIMES.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 20.0N  27.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N  28.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N  28.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.1N  28.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N  29.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  29.9W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 242257
TCDAT4
HURRICANE LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
700 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
 
LISA HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED EYE SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C AS SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS EYE IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS.  SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM AROUND 2200 UTC BY TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH
4.0...65 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT
VALUE.  LISA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2300Z 20.2N  27.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N  28.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N  28.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.1N  28.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N  29.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  29.9W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 


WTNT44 KNHC 250834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A
CENTRAL MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HURRICANE IS LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER...AND THE OUTFLOW
HAS BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. AN 0347 UTC AMSU-B PASS ALSO
INDICATED THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 4.5 AT 0600 UTC FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS THE BASIS FOR AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF INCREASING...AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW CLOSE TO 20 KT
OF SHEAR. AS THE CYCLONE GAINS LATITUDE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE SHEAR AS WELL AS A
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND A COOLER OCEAN SURFACE.  THESE
FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
OCCUR AT A RAPID PACE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE NOW THAT LISA HAS PEAKED AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOULD STEER LISA ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS SO LONG AS IT MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY.  AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR A WEAKER LISA...HAVING BECOME A MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM SOONER THAN FORECAST...TO SLOW AND THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES AS DEPICTED IN THE UKMET.  THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE...
IMMEDIATELY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 21.6N  28.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 23.1N  28.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N  28.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  28.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  28.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 29.5N  29.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 31.6N  29.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 


WTNT44 KNHC 251443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
 
ALTHOUGH OUTER BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
SOME DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON LISA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB... T2.4/35 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT
VALUE OF T3.8/61 KT FROM UW-CIMSS....AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AGAIN.

LISA IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 350/10. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...LISA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ASSUMING
THAT LISA MAINTAINS VERTICAL COHERENCE THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
ABOVE 25 KT BY 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KT BY
36-48 HOURS. THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH LISA IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SSTS OF 25.5C...THE CYCLONE IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER ANY COOLER THAN THOSE CURRENT OCEAN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT
UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL BY AT LEAST 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LISA
THAN WHAT THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY INGESTING. THE RESULT IS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION COULD PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER...ALBEIT SHEARED TO
THE EAST...AND PREVENT LISA FROM BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS EARLY AS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 22.7N  28.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.9N  28.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  28.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 26.6N  28.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.9N  29.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 30.1N  29.6W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 32.0N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 252032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON LISA WITH ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS
A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5/55 KT
FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT VALUE OF T3.0/45 KT
FROM UW-CIMSS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONVERGENT
NOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD HASTEN THE ONGOING
WEAKENING TREND. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES DISSIPATION BY
48 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION DUE TO
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLY KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALIVE A LITTLE BIT LONGER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.7N  28.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N  28.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  28.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  29.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 28.6N  29.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.7N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 32.5N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT44 KNHC 260234
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010
 
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT LISA HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER BECOMING
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. COOL WATERS...DRY AIR...AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF LISA BY MONDAY UNLESS
THE CYCLONE PULLS ANOTHER SURPRISE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE WEAKENING SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
BASED ON SSMI/S IMAGES FROM EARLIER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
RELOCATED FARTHER WEST...AND IS MOVING AT ABOUT 340/8. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...
SUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE CYCLONE TAKING A TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...BUT THESE MODELS ALSO HAVE A MUCH MORE
VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE. SINCE THIS STRUCTURE IS UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT THAT
IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE
VERY SLOWLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NEAR THE AZORES.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.3N  29.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  29.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 26.5N  29.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 27.8N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.2N  30.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 31.0N  31.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 32.0N  31.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 


WTNT44 KNHC 260843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE A TOLL ON LISA AS THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA
OF REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND COOL
SSTS...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND LISA IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8.  A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA.  THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 25.1N  29.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N  29.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.2N  30.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  30.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 29.8N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  31.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 


WTNT44 KNHC 262038
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
 
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF LISA.  THIS CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS
LOCATED OVER 100 N MI FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN FACT...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN WITHIN 100 N MI OF THE CENTER FOR ABOUT THE
LAST 11 HOURS.  THEREFORE...LISA NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS...COUPLED WITH A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN SHOULD PREVENT
REGENERATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/6.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 26.1N  29.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.8N  30.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.9N  31.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 29.1N  31.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  31.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 31.4N  31.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 


