WTNT44 KNHC 201608
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS
CROSSED THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SEVERAL
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS SEARCHING FOR A WELL-DEFINED
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  NOT UNTIL THIS MORNING DID THE
AIRCRAFT DETECT SUCH A CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MORE
THAN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING
WINDS OF 35-40 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS MORNING
THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS AS STRONG AS 42 KT...ALONG
WITH WINDS OF 50 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY
42057...SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MEASURED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR ABOUT FOUR HOURS THIS
MORNING...AS STRONG AS 39 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THE
CYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40 KT.  THIS IS CURRENTLY A SPRAWLING SYSTEM WITH 34-KT
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH
VERY RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND
CRISTOBAL.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE
SPREAD IS GREATER ON DAYS 3-5...WITH SOME MODELS EVENTUALLY
FORECASTING DOLLY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS HEAD
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.  THEY ALSO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW LONG IT
MIGHT TAKE FOR DOLLY TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.  THE MOST PRUDENT
APPROACH FOR NOW IS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE ARE TWO INHIBITING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE OBVIOUS ONE BEING INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS OF
YUCATAN TONIGHT.  ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST
OF DOLLY IS IMPARTING SOME WIND SHEAR THAT IS PART OF THE REASON
FOR SUCH AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN.  THAT LOW...HOWEVER...IS
HEADED SOUTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE WAY...AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES
THE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL FORECAST
OF A HURRICANE IN THAT AREA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1545Z 18.4N  84.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.7N  86.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 21.1N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.2N  92.2W    45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N  96.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  97.5W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 202053
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
DOLLY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT
QUITE AS WELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING...EVEN TO THE WEST...AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF DOLLY IS HEADED
RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS WEAKENING. DOLLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY TOMORROW. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 28
CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...AND ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REMAINS
INTACT AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN...
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
ALL OF THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT TO
HAPPEN...AND ALL FORECAST DOLLY TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EVEN WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE...BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12.  THE MODELS
FORECAST A SOMEWHAT FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LAGS A LITTLE BEHIND THE
CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND
THAT THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION FROM THE MODEL FIELDS THAT DOLLY
SHOULD ACCELERATE MUCH.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY
REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT
ALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END.  IT
IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 18.9N  85.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 20.1N  86.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.6N  89.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.9N  92.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.8N  94.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  96.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N  99.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/1800Z 27.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 210251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW.  HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS
ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT.  SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER
EASTERLIES.  DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS.  BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN
THE WESTERN GULF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY
TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM
ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS.  THE
QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 19.6N  85.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.9N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N  90.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 23.4N  92.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 24.3N  94.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  97.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 210856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON
THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SINCE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS...AND IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL SOON REAPPEAR...IT IS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE ISSUING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ON DOLLY.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION DISTANCE
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALSO DIMINISHING ITS SHEARING
INFLUENCE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF DOLLY AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PRESAGES INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR
TO THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE CENTER AND THE REFORMATION...INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  MY BEST GUESS...305/13...IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A SLOWING OF
FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS...THEREAFTER...THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
STEERING PATTERN FOR DOLLY IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRENGTHS AND
CONFIGURATIONS OF THIS RIDGE AROUND 72 HOURS AND DIFFERENT
LATITUDES OF LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. 
ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN 2 TO 3
DAYS TIME...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.

ANOTHER NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER
THIS MORNING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 21.3N  87.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.6N  89.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 23.6N  92.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 24.4N  94.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.0N  95.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 211500
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT DOLLY HAS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY CONFIRMED THE
EXISTENCE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND FOUND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT.  THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.  A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SO THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ENTIRE OVER-WATER FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.  IN ABOUT 18-24
HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29
CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA
WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE. 
AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR A TRUE
INNER CORE TO DEVELOP.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFDL
SOLUTION...IN CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL
ARE UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS ONLY
RESULTS FROM THE 72-HOUR POINT BEING INLAND...AND A STRENGTHENING
TREND IS FORECAST UP TO THE TIME OF FINAL LANDFALL.

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
THERE ARE VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
LANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 22.1N  89.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  91.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 24.2N  93.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 25.1N  95.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 25.9N  96.4W    80 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.5N  98.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 27.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 212100
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL
CHANGES.  THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH
SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT
45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER
CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY
MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING. 
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION.  ANOTHER COMPLICATION
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY
WILL REACH THE COAST.  IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY.  BUT IF THE OPPOSITE
OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 300/16.  WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST
MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT.  THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN
EXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER.  THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST
DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL
AND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF. 
THIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER.  IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED
BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 23.1N  91.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  93.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 24.9N  94.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 25.8N  96.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 26.4N  97.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 220254
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
DOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AGAINST THE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING. 
DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER.   DOLLY IS ALSO
MOVING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY.  GIVEN THESE CHANGES...STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT YET IDEAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
DOLLY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO BECOME
BETTER CONNECTED JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...DOLLY
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD EDDY IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...WHEN
THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN IT IS
NOW...AND THIS ENCOUNTER COULD PROVIDE A DAMPER ON THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE IN THE LAST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE
BOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT DOLLY VERY LIKELY WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE...BUT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
DID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...AND ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY
WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A PAIR OF
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH
THE GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 23.1N  92.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 23.9N  94.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 24.8N  95.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 25.6N  96.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  98.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 220833
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED A LITTLE...TO 997 MB.  THE SFMR ON BOARD
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS NEAR 60 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
BUT THESE READINGS WERE IN AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH
PROBABLY CAUSED SPIKES IN THE VELOCITY VALUES.  ASSUMING THAT THESE
WERE OVERESTIMATES BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRESSURE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...50 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE IS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE
OF DOLLY AND POURING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER
OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE CENTER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT FAR FROM THE GFDL/HWRF PREDICTIONS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ONCE DOLLY ESTABLISHES AN INNER CORE...I.E. AN EYEWALL-LIKE
STRUCTURE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID IN
COMPARISON TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THUS FAR.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT DOLLY WOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...OR 280/13.  
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION ARE FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY THE PORTION OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
OF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFDL/HWRF TRACKS.  AGAIN IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 23.3N  93.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 24.1N  95.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 25.0N  96.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 25.7N  97.5W    75 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 221443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN
OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY
STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER.  CONVECTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS
HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
UPWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT
LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.

FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE
MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED
THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
 
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 24.0N  94.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 24.8N  95.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 222107
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75
KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA
JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
 
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY
SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
 
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 24.6N  95.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 25.3N  96.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  97.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 230259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA
AIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON
THIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A
COOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY
A NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER
SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS
IN THE CASE OF THE GFS.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE
VARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. 
AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
LOW.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 25.1N  96.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 26.1N  98.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 230844
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...
DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE
YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT
FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A
BANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED.  THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR DOLLY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE HURRICANE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 2
INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...WITH A SLIGHT
ADDITIONAL DECELERATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS BEFORE.  THIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 25.6N  96.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  97.4W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.3N  98.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 231500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES.   INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
 
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 26.0N  97.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  97.8W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.0N  99.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 232045
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS.  THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND
OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. 

DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT
48 HOURS. 

DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 26.6N  97.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N  98.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 240236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH
IT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900
FT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT
THE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING
EASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.5N  98.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.8N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 240846
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS SLOWLY WOBBLING ALONG...WELL INLAND OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...AT ABOUT 295/6.  THE EYE IS ALMOST GONE FROM RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT THE SURROUNDING RAIN SHIELD IS STILL QUITE
SOLID...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE IT EXTENDS
ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EASTWARD BACK TO THE
COAST.  IN ADDITION...A FEW POTENT OUTER RAIN BANDS PERSIST
NEAR AND JUST OFF THE COAST.  WSR-88D VELOCITIES ADJUSTED FOR
ALTITUDE SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT ALONG THE
COASTLINE DUE EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 50 KT...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.  AS DOLLY PROCEEDS INLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG
THE COAST...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS
DOLLY IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS MOTION
WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND AND OVER INCREASINGLY RUGGED
TERRAIN...SO DOLLY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24
HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN
36-48 HOURS.  DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING...DOLLY WILL CONTINUE
TO DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR MANY MORE HOURS...SO A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 26.9N  98.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 27.3N  99.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 27.9N 101.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 28.4N 104.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 241440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST
PROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  THERE ARE NUMEROUS
OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS
DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  DESPITE WEAKENING...
DOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT  
INLAND FLOODING.
 
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 27.5N  99.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 242031
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
DOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SQUALLS. THE DEPRESSION IS
WELL INLAND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY
OR SO.
 
THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ON DOLLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DOLLY CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT
10 PM CDT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 28.2N 100.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.0N 102.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

