WTNT44 KNHC 012043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  40.6W    45 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N  42.8W    50 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N  48.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  51.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N  58.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  64.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N  69.5W    80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000

WTNT44 KNHC 020300
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE
HAS ERODED A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
REGARDLESS...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT
AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME...AND SUGGEST
THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
BEYOND 48 HOURS.  BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A
POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12...WITHIN IN THE DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET IS THE ONLY
GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A
SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA. ACCORDINGLY...THE NHC FORECAST IS
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0300Z 18.0N  41.6W    45 KT
12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N  43.8W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N  46.7W    60 KT
36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  49.6W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.8N  52.7W    75 KT
72HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N  59.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     06/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 020856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE
CIRCULATION.  THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK
AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY
OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  AS THE CUTOFF LOW CURENTLY
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A
MOTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG ABOUT
20N WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY OUR MOST
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A RELATIVELY
TIGHT CLUSTER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE MORE NORTHERLY PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.  IN THE NEAR
TERM...IKE IS IN A CONDUCIVE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARM SSTS AND A
POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO ITS SOUTH.  IN THE LONGER TERM...THE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO 29C...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AS FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW EAST OF IKE AND THE UPPER
RIDGE NORTHWEST OF IKE IS PREDICTED TO PRODUCE 30 KT
NORTHEASTERLIES.  GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
WHICH SUGGEST A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEARLY THE SAME AS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0900Z 18.6N  43.1W    45 KT
12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  45.3W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N  48.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N  51.3W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  54.3W    75 KT
72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  60.5W    80 KT
96HR VT     06/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  72.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH




000

WTNT44 KNHC 021459
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS EXPANDED A BIT...AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
IKE. MOST MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN...ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO
DAY 5. IN FACT...WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY
5...WE COULDN'T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS... PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND
HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR
OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE...AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING...I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM...IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
TO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
A POSSIBILITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.9N  45.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  47.3W    55 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N  50.3W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  53.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  56.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W    80 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  68.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  74.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 022042
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS
WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY...
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING
IT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET...
WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS
IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 19.2N  46.3W    55 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N  48.6W    65 KT
24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.3N  51.8W    70 KT
36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N  55.0W    75 KT
48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.6N  57.8W    80 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  63.5W    85 KT
96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  69.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  75.0W    95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB



000

WTNT44 KNHC 030251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE OUTFLOW
IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...IKE LACKS AN INNER CORE
AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW
ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KNOTS BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS..AND THIS NUMBER IS USED FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR A
DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ANYTIME SOON.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS... A STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND COULD DELAY THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT AS
NEGATIVE AS WESTERLY SHEAR FOR A CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH
BOTH GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IKE AN INTENSE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE
MODERATE...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

IKE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS EXPAND AND
BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE RIDGE BECOMES SO STRONG BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT MODELS TURN IKE ON A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...WHICH MOVES IKE WITH A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED PLACING THE CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN FIVE
DAYS. THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0300Z 19.9N  47.9W    55 KT
12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N  50.3W    65 KT
24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  53.5W    70 KT
36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  56.5W    75 KT
48HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N  59.5W    80 KT
72HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  64.5W    85 KT
96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  70.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 22.1N  76.0W    95 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000

WTNT44 KNHC 030835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND THE
STORM...WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED
INNER CORE AND...UNTIL THIS INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...
STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW.  HOWEVER...ONCE AN EYEWALL BECOMES
DEFINED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE.  THE ONLY
OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AROUND 48 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THIS IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MUCH OF OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES REQUIRE A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/16.  THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STORM
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
BUILDING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF IKE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FORCE A TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT.  HOWEVER THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL TURN.  THE GFDL AND DEEP-LAYER BAM ARE THE
SOUTHERNMOST AND BRING IKE OVER HISPANIOLA WHEREAS THE U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS ALSO A CREDIBLE MODEL...TAKES THE
CYCLONE TO MUCH HIGHER LATITUDES.  ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RECENT
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.6N  49.6W    55 KT
12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.3N  52.2W    65 KT
24HR VT     04/0600Z 22.2N  55.1W    70 KT
36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.8N  58.0W    75 KT
48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.2N  60.8W    80 KT
72HR VT     06/0600Z 23.0N  66.0W    85 KT
96HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  71.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    95 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000

WTNT44 KNHC 031500
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO
FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING...WE MIGHT SEE AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0...BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW.  IN
ANY CASE...IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE
ONE LATER TODAY.  THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET
WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR
29 CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IKE
MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST
ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST...ESCAPES THE
SHEAR...AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE
WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE
MODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT
RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE...BUT THEY
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD
MOTION.  THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT
OTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.8N  51.2W    60 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.7N  53.7W    65 KT
24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.8W    70 KT
36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  59.4W    70 KT
48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  62.0W    70 KT
72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.0W    80 KT
96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  71.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N  75.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 032100
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

AS ANTICIPATED...IKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALL
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES SAY IT HAS BECOME A HURRICANE.  SINCE THE
1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN
LATE-DAY VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT.  THE
CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE BASIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE
STARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE'S OUTFLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST...BUT PROBABLY NOT
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HALT IKE'S INTENSIFICATION TREND IN THE SHORT
TERM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY
PEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER
WEST.  BY THAT TIME...IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC
FACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF...FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS
4 AND 5...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IKE WILL
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE FOUR AND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW.  IF IKE IS WEAKER
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5...THEN THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM WILL TURN OUT TO BE
MORE ACCURATE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16.  AS
THE LARGE AND DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL PUSH IKE GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  UNDULATIONS IN THE TRACK ARE
LIKELY THOUGH.  IKE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS...AFTER WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THAT RIDGE.  THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES
IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT
RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND
AREAS.  THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER...WHICH IS
NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE...OR IF
ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 21.6N  52.7W    70 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.6N  55.1W    75 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N  57.9W    85 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  60.4W    80 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.8N  63.1W    80 KT
72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  68.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 032346
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE.  SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS
DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD
T-NUMBERS OF 5.5.  IN FACT...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING IKE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0000Z 21.7N  53.2W   100 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.6N  55.1W   110 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N  57.9W   115 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  60.4W   115 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.8N  63.1W   110 KT
72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  68.0W   110 KT
96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.0W   115 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W   115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




WTNT44 KNHC 040257
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING.  AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC.  SINCE THAT
TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD
CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE
T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE
2045 UTC.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 115 KT...MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS
WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  HOWEVER
BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN
24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE
LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE GFDL IS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN
THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
HWRF...THE 12Z ECMWF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0300Z 22.1N  54.1W   115 KT
12HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.2W   115 KT
24HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N  58.7W   105 KT
36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.3N  61.0W   105 KT
48HR VT     06/0000Z 23.8N  63.6W   100 KT
72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  68.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  72.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N  75.5W   115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




WTNT44 KNHC 040838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH
THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE.  THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF
125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY.  IN SUCH
INTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE
EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
PREDICT.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...
AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE
AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAVORABLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT
IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15.  THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE
HURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5.  LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
TRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE
WESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0900Z 22.7N  55.8W   125 KT
12HR VT     04/1800Z 23.5N  57.7W   125 KT
24HR VT     05/0600Z 24.0N  60.2W   115 KT
36HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N  62.6W   110 KT
48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.4N  64.9W   110 KT
72HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  69.5W   115 KT
96HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N  73.5W   115 KT
120HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  76.5W   115 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT44 KNHC 041434
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW
ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A
LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT.  GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION...INNER-
CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.
IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS
IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS
MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE
LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...
COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE
BAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST
TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A
BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 23.2N  57.0W   120 KT
12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  58.9W   115 KT
24HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  61.3W   110 KT
36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.6N  63.8W   105 KT
48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  66.7W   100 KT
72HR VT     07/1200Z 22.5N  71.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N  74.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  77.5W   105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000

WTNT44 KNHC 042032
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY.  IT IS
INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE
CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT.  STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE
SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH
THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.  IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM
WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING.  THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE
LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE
TOMORROW.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL
BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE.  THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE
GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA.  THE
OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 23.6N  58.2W   115 KT
12HR VT     05/0600Z 23.9N  60.0W   105 KT
24HR VT     05/1800Z 23.7N  62.5W    95 KT
36HR VT     06/0600Z 23.2N  65.1W    95 KT
48HR VT     06/1800Z 22.7N  67.7W   100 KT
72HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.5W   105 KT
96HR VT     08/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 25.5N  79.0W   110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000

WTNT44 KNHC 050247
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE HURRICANE.  DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS
CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.  IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.

IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD.  IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.  THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY
LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 23.6N  59.5W   115 KT
12HR VT     05/1200Z 23.6N  61.5W   105 KT
24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.4N  64.0W    95 KT
36HR VT     06/1200Z 22.9N  66.6W    95 KT
48HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  69.2W   100 KT
72HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  73.5W   105 KT
96HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N  77.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N  80.0W   110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




WTNT44 KNHC 050857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR.  THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST.  THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA.
MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH
THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER
JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96
HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND
IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES.  THE ONLY
REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS
OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE
HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS
NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13.  NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN
ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW
STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT.  IN
GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS
MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY
POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH.  THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND HWRF.  IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 23.7N  61.0W   110 KT
12HR VT     05/1800Z 23.7N  63.0W   105 KT
24HR VT     06/0600Z 23.3N  65.6W    95 KT
36HR VT     06/1800Z 22.8N  68.1W   100 KT
48HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  70.6W   105 KT
72HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N  75.0W   115 KT
96HR VT     09/0600Z 24.0N  78.5W   115 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 26.0N  81.0W    95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



000

WTNT44 KNHC 051444
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH
SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A
DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO
THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS
UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN
A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND
GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
FOR DAYS TO COME.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO
BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS
THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 23.2N  62.7W   105 KT
12HR VT     06/0000Z 22.9N  64.7W    95 KT
24HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.4W    90 KT
36HR VT     07/0000Z 22.2N  69.9W    95 KT
48HR VT     07/1200Z 22.2N  72.5W   105 KT
72HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W   115 KT
96HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N  80.0W   115 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  82.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000

WTNT44 KNHC 052046
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT.  A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER.  A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13.  A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE.  GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER.  THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE.   OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.  IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.
 
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 22.9N  64.1W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  66.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 22.2N  68.9W    95 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 22.1N  71.3W   100 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.2N  73.7W   110 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  78.2W   115 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N  81.5W   115 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 25.5N  83.0W   115 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 060259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC.  SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE
INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.
 
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD. 
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES 
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.
 
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION.  WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND. 
HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER
MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT 
REMAINS OVER WATER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 22.6N  65.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.3N  67.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  70.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 21.9N  72.8W   105 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.9N  75.3W   115 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  79.6W   110 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N  82.5W   110 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N  84.5W   115 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 060904
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 104 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR PEAK
WIND OF 96 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT METEOROLOGIST ALSO INDICATED THAT IKE HAS A CLOSED 24 NM
DIAMETER EYE. A DROPSONDE WITHIN THE EYE MEASURED 983 MB BUT THAT
WAS WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 16 KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 982 MB. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR
SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW
DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST. OF
COURSE...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL
EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF
WEAKENING OVER LAND.  LATER ON...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW
OF A STRONG RIDGE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE
IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION.  AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  IN FACT...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS
ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.  WITHOUT
QUESTION...THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE
SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE'S INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 22.4N  67.1W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.1N  69.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 21.8N  71.6W   100 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.6N  74.1W   105 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 21.8N  76.6W   115 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  80.5W    90 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  83.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  85.5W   110 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 061446
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.  BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR.  GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE. 
 
IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 21.9N  68.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N  70.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  72.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.2N  75.4W   105 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  77.6W    95 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  84.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 062044
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED.  THE PLANE
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT.  ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.   ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
 
IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 21.4N  69.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 21.2N  71.6W   120 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N  74.0W   125 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   120 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.7W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  85.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  87.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 070248
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.  ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.  UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 21.2N  70.9W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  73.0W   120 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.5W   125 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  78.0W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 070856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
 
THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE
TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF
121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.
 
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN
HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY
OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE
LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON
THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF
IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS
DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 21.1N  72.2W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N  74.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.6W   125 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.8N  79.0W    85 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  81.1W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  84.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 071431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS.  THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
KT.  A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO ANTICIPATE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT.  ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND.  THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE WATERS OVER
THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.  IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
 
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 21.0N  73.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    85 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  79.9W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  85.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 

WTNT44 KNHC 072039
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
 
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE.  THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT
AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT.  A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.
 
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH WEAKENS.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE
NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.  THIS PATTERN
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS
4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 21.1N  74.6W   105 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   100 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.8W    85 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  80.8W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N  82.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N  85.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 26.0N  88.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  91.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 080300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.  SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.  SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED.  ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD. 
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN.  SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.1N  75.8W   105 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    90 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  79.9W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.8N  81.7W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.6N  83.5W    80 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.4W    90 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  92.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 080900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA.  THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT
THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND
THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE
CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST.  IF IKE FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD
ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE. 
NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER
WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW.  THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW
DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  IKE'S
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM
NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5. 
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 21.2N  77.3W    90 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  79.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  81.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 23.1N  83.0W    60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 23.9N  84.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  90.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N  93.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 081453
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
DESPITE IKE'S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...THE
CYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT.  A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH
WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON.  IF THIS
MATERIALIZES...IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
SHOWN...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
CUBAN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/12.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL SOON TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND TRACK
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
REQUIRES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. 
THIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 21.1N  78.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  80.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 22.2N  82.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.1N  83.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.1W    80 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 25.5N  87.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  93.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 082050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB.  DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. 
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA. 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM
CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR. 
 
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12.  TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.  ONCE
IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH
A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 21.4N  79.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.8N  81.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 22.6N  83.2W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.4N  86.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 25.5N  89.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  92.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  96.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 090235
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO
RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.  SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE.  SINCE THE INNER CORE
APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG
AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.  

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN
3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS. 
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  I AM
FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS
A GLOBAL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 21.8N  80.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 22.4N  82.3W    80 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 24.8N  87.2W    95 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  91.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 27.0N  94.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 

WTNT44 KNHC 090858
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE
INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM.
THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE
GENEROUS AT THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS
WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN
CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS.
 
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE
HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE
AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 22.0N  82.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 22.7N  83.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.2N  86.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  88.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 25.5N  93.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N  97.5W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
 
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.  SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 092051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
 
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.  REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 22.9N  83.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 24.3N  86.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 24.9N  88.4W   100 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 25.3N  90.6W   105 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  95.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/1800Z 33.6N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 100237
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT.  IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS.  GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 23.2N  84.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 23.9N  85.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 24.6N  87.1W    90 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.6N  91.1W   105 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  95.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 30.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  97.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 

WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
 
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 23.5N  84.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N  86.0W    80 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 24.7N  87.7W    90 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W   100 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.8N  92.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N  96.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 31.5N  98.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0600Z 34.5N  97.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS. 
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.  

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. 
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. 
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES.  WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 23.9N  85.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  86.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  88.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 25.7N  90.7W   105 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  93.1W   110 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  97.0W   105 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  98.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  96.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
 
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH.  THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER.  A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS.  THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS.  ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL.  THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS.  IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.  IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 24.5N  86.1W    85 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  87.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.6N  89.3W   105 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 26.2N  91.5W   110 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  94.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  97.0W    90 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 110301
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
OVERALL...IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  PARADOXICALLY...IKE HAS A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI. 
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS. 
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES.  SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN.  IF...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM.  THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.

THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD. 
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR.  THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.  
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.  EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 24.9N  86.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 25.4N  88.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  90.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 26.7N  92.4W   100 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 27.7N  94.6W   110 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.5N  96.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 36.0N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 110845
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED
CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY
CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.  HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE
WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THERE HAS BEEN A
DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT.  OCEANIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELY
TRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  IKE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FIXES FROM THE CURRENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INDICATE
THAT THE MOTION HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...I.E. 295/8. 
THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO TEXAS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION
OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS
WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON
AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR
MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF
RUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE
LATEST GFDL RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT.  IN THIS CASE IT IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
NECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE
FATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.     
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 25.2N  87.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 25.7N  89.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.3N  91.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.1N  93.2W   105 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 28.4N  95.2W   110 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 111506
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65
KT.  IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT
QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  

FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY...BUT IKE HAS
PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE
WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ABOUT
945 MB.  ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.  ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF
COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL
RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE
SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT
IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL...WITH IKE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR
LANDFALL...WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS
TO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A
48 HOUR FORECAST...AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 25.5N  88.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N  90.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.6N  92.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 27.8N  94.2W   105 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 29.5N  95.9W   100 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.5N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 38.0N  85.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 112051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS
CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY
WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH LANDFALL.  AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI.
 
BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 26.0N  89.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.6N  90.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 27.6N  93.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  95.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 37.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 120300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE
THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT
REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.
INSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI.  SFMR RETRIEVED WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND
BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT.  ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND.  THE SLOWLY-CHANGING
STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL
ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE
COASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL
LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE
TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE
THE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON
THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES
IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 26.3N  90.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 27.1N  92.1W    90 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 28.5N  94.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  95.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  88.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 120841
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED
SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...
A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. 
ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI
AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY
THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  IKE IS MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES
THEREAFTER.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT
OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST.  HOWEVER...IKE
IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN
INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. 
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
 
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS
WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 26.7N  91.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.4N  93.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W   100 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 31.3N  95.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 34.4N  94.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 41.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 121456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.  IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.  
 
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 27.2N  92.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.2N  94.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  95.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 36.0N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 122031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
 
IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE.  STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.  ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.
 
IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST.  ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 27.7N  93.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  96.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 35.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 38.5N  89.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 130259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
 
A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND
VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED
FROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT
WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
95 KT.

THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE
PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS
COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.
 
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 28.6N  94.4W    95 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.4W    70 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 36.6N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 40.5N  86.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG
 

WTNT44 KNHC 130854
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
JUST AFTER 0700 UTC.  AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
952 MB.  THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...
SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IKE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.  IKE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11.  IKE IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE
CENTER.  WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.7N  95.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 34.6N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 38.6N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 42.5N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 131500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO
THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED
EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS
THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36
HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE'S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE
ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO
ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING
FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
 
ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS...UNFORTUNATELY...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AS WILL CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 31.0N  95.3W    70 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 36.7N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 40.6N  86.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 44.5N  77.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 132053
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
IKE IS STEADILY WINDING DOWN AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT IKE IS BARELY
ABOVE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD...DESPITE THE RATHER LOW PRESSURE OF
980.7 MB RECENTLY REPORTED AT TYLER TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST OT MERGE WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...
AFTER WHICH THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...AND THEN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/16.  IKE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH ARKANSAS...
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS..AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOSTILE
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF MORE THAN 110 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
 
ALTHOUGH IKE IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN
LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 32.4N  95.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 35.1N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 38.9N  88.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 43.0N  80.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 140259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE.  RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
AT ABOUT 982 MB.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
025/21.  EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
HIGH LATITUDES.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 34.3N  93.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 37.4N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 42.2N  82.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 46.8N  71.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 51.0N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT44 KNHC 140841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
AND HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
SURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IKE...WITH AN AREA OF
25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS
IS THE FIRST SIGN OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WITH IKE
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER LOW IN
ABOUT 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/26.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE LARGER LOW
AT VERY HIGH LATITUDE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IKE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 
FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 36.4N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 40.4N  87.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 45.6N  76.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 50.0N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 55.0N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 052046
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT.  A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER.  A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13.  A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE.  GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER.  THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE.   OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.  IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 22.9N  64.1W   100 KT
12HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  66.2W    95 KT
24HR VT     06/1800Z 22.2N  68.9W    95 KT
36HR VT     07/0600Z 22.1N  71.3W   100 KT
48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.2N  73.7W   110 KT
72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  78.2W   115 KT
96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N  81.5W   115 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 25.5N  83.0W   115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 060259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC.  SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE
INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION.  WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND.
HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER
MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT
REMAINS OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 22.6N  65.6W   100 KT
12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.3N  67.6W   100 KT
24HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  70.3W   100 KT
36HR VT     07/1200Z 21.9N  72.8W   105 KT
48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.9N  75.3W   115 KT
72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  79.6W   110 KT
96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N  82.5W   110 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N  84.5W   115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 060904
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 104 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR PEAK
WIND OF 96 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT METEOROLOGIST ALSO INDICATED THAT IKE HAS A CLOSED 24 NM
DIAMETER EYE. A DROPSONDE WITHIN THE EYE MEASURED 983 MB BUT THAT
WAS WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 16 KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 982 MB. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR
SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW
DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST. OF
COURSE...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL
EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF
WEAKENING OVER LAND.  LATER ON...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW
OF A STRONG RIDGE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE
IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION.  AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  IN FACT...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS
ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.  WITHOUT
QUESTION...THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE
SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE'S INTENSITY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 22.4N  67.1W   100 KT
12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.1N  69.0W   100 KT
24HR VT     07/0600Z 21.8N  71.6W   100 KT
36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.6N  74.1W   105 KT
48HR VT     08/0600Z 21.8N  76.6W   115 KT
72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  80.5W    90 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
96HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  83.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  85.5W   110 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 061446
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.  BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR.  GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.

IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 21.9N  68.8W    95 KT
12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N  70.4W    95 KT
24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  72.9W   100 KT
36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.2N  75.4W   105 KT
48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  77.6W    95 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  84.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 062044
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED.  THE PLANE
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT.  ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.   ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 21.4N  69.7W   115 KT
12HR VT     07/0600Z 21.2N  71.6W   120 KT
24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N  74.0W   125 KT
36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   120 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.7W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
96HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  85.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  87.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 070248
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.  ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.  UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 21.2N  70.9W   115 KT
12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  73.0W   120 KT
24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.5W   125 KT
36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  78.0W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000

WTNT44 KNHC 070856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE
TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF
121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN
HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY
OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE
LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON
THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF
IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS
DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0900Z 21.1N  72.2W   115 KT
12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N  74.2W   120 KT
24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.6W   125 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.8N  79.0W    85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  81.1W    65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  84.5W    80 KT
96HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000

WTNT44 KNHC 071431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS.  THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
KT.  A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO ANTICIPATE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT.  ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND.  THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE WATERS OVER
THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.  IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/1500Z 21.0N  73.4W   115 KT
12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.2W   120 KT
24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  79.9W    70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.8W    65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  85.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME




WTNT44 KNHC 072039
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE.  THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT
AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT.  A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH WEAKENS.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE
NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.  THIS PATTERN
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS
4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/2100Z 21.1N  74.6W   105 KT
12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.8W    85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  80.8W    70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N  82.6W    65 KT
72HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N  85.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     11/1800Z 26.0N  88.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  91.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 080300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.  SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.  SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED.  ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN.  SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.1N  75.8W   105 KT
12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  79.9W    80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.8N  81.7W    70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.6N  83.5W    80 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.4W    90 KT
96HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  92.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT44 KNHC 080900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA.  THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT
THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND
THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE
CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST.  IF IKE FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD
ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER
WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW.  THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW
DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  IKE'S
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM
NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0900Z 21.2N  77.3W    90 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  79.0W    75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  81.2W    65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     09/1800Z 23.1N  83.0W    60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT     10/0600Z 23.9N  84.5W    75 KT
72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  90.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N  93.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 081453
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

DESPITE IKE'S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...THE
CYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT.  A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH
WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON.  IF THIS
MATERIALIZES...IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
SHOWN...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

CUBAN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/12.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL SOON TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND TRACK
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
REQUIRES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 21.1N  78.5W    85 KT
12HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  80.2W    75 KT
24HR VT     09/1200Z 22.2N  82.2W    75 KT
36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.1N  83.8W    70 KT
48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.1W    80 KT
72HR VT     11/1200Z 25.5N  87.5W    95 KT
96HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  93.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 082050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB.  DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM
CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR.

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12.  TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.  ONCE
IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH
A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/2100Z 21.4N  79.7W    70 KT
12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.8N  81.4W    80 KT
24HR VT     09/1800Z 22.6N  83.2W    80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W    75 KT
48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.4N  86.0W    85 KT
72HR VT     11/1800Z 25.5N  89.0W    95 KT
96HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  92.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  96.0W    95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 090235
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO
RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.  SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE.  SINCE THE INNER CORE
APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG
AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN
3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  I AM
FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS
A GLOBAL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0300Z 21.8N  80.8W    70 KT
12HR VT     09/1200Z 22.4N  82.3W    80 KT
24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.0W    85 KT
36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.7W    90 KT
48HR VT     11/0000Z 24.8N  87.2W    95 KT
72HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  91.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/0000Z 27.0N  94.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W    95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG




WTNT44 KNHC 090858
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE
INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM.
THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE
GENEROUS AT THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS
WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN
CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS.

FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE
HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE
AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 22.0N  82.1W    70 KT
12HR VT     09/1800Z 22.7N  83.5W    80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.3W    85 KT
36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.2N  86.8W    90 KT
48HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  88.5W    95 KT
72HR VT     12/0600Z 25.5N  93.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N  97.5W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.  SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT
12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT
24HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT
36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT
48HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W   100 KT
72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 092051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.  REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/2100Z 22.9N  83.8W    65 KT
12HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.1W    70 KT
24HR VT     10/1800Z 24.3N  86.6W    90 KT
36HR VT     11/0600Z 24.9N  88.4W   100 KT
48HR VT     11/1800Z 25.3N  90.6W   105 KT
72HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  95.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/1800Z 33.6N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 100237
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT.  IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS.  GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 23.2N  84.3W    70 KT
12HR VT     10/1200Z 23.9N  85.5W    75 KT
24HR VT     11/0000Z 24.6N  87.1W    90 KT
36HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.0W   100 KT
48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.6N  91.1W   105 KT
72HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  95.5W   105 KT
96HR VT     14/0000Z 30.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  97.0W    25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG




WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0900Z 23.5N  84.9W    75 KT
12HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N  86.0W    80 KT
24HR VT     11/0600Z 24.7N  87.7W    90 KT
36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W   100 KT
48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.8N  92.0W   105 KT
72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N  96.5W   105 KT
96HR VT     14/0600Z 31.5N  98.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0600Z 34.5N  97.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES.  WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/1500Z 23.9N  85.3W    80 KT
12HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  86.8W    90 KT
24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  88.6W    95 KT
36HR VT     12/0000Z 25.7N  90.7W   105 KT
48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  93.1W   110 KT
72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  97.0W   105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  98.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  96.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008


THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH.  THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER.  A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS.  THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS.  ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL.  THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS.  IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.  IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/2100Z 24.5N  86.1W    85 KT
12HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  87.4W    95 KT
24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.6N  89.3W   105 KT
36HR VT     12/0600Z 26.2N  91.5W   110 KT
48HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  94.0W   115 KT
72HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  97.0W    90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 110301
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

OVERALL...IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  PARADOXICALLY...IKE HAS A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES.  SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN.  IF...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM.  THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.

THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR.  THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.  EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0300Z 24.9N  86.7W    85 KT
12HR VT     11/1200Z 25.4N  88.0W    90 KT
24HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  90.0W    95 KT
36HR VT     12/1200Z 26.7N  92.4W   100 KT
48HR VT     13/0000Z 27.7N  94.6W   110 KT
72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.5N  96.5W    55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     15/0000Z 36.0N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 110845
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED
CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY
CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.  HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE
WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THERE HAS BEEN A
DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT.  OCEANIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELY
TRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  IKE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FIXES FROM THE CURRENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INDICATE
THAT THE MOTION HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...I.E. 295/8.
THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TO TEXAS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION
OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS
WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON
AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR
MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF
RUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE
LATEST GFDL RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT.  IN THIS CASE IT IS
PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
SINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
NECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE
FATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0900Z 25.2N  87.6W    85 KT
12HR VT     11/1800Z 25.7N  89.0W    90 KT
24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.3N  91.0W    95 KT
36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.1N  93.2W   105 KT
48HR VT     13/0600Z 28.4N  95.2W   110 KT
72HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN




WTNT44 KNHC 111506
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65
KT.  IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT
QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY...BUT IKE HAS
PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE
WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ABOUT
945 MB.  ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.  ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF
COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL
RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE
SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT
IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL...WITH IKE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR
LANDFALL...WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS
TO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A
48 HOUR FORECAST...AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1500Z 25.5N  88.4W    85 KT
12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N  90.0W    90 KT
24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.6N  92.0W    95 KT
36HR VT     13/0000Z 27.8N  94.2W   105 KT
48HR VT     13/1200Z 29.5N  95.9W   100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.5N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     15/1200Z 38.0N  85.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 112051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS
CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY
WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH LANDFALL.  AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI.

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2100Z 26.0N  89.4W    85 KT
12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.6N  90.9W    90 KT
24HR VT     12/1800Z 27.6N  93.0W    95 KT
36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  95.0W   105 KT
48HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     14/1800Z 37.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 120300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE
THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT
REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.
INSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI.  SFMR RETRIEVED WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND
BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT.  ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND.  THE SLOWLY-CHANGING
STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL
ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE
COASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL
LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE
TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE
THE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON
THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES
IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/0300Z 26.3N  90.4W    85 KT
12HR VT     12/1200Z 27.1N  92.1W    90 KT
24HR VT     13/0000Z 28.5N  94.1W    95 KT
36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  95.7W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  88.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 120841
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED
SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...
A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.
ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI
AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY
THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  IKE IS MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES
THEREAFTER.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT
OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST.  HOWEVER...IKE
IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN
INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR.
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS
WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/0900Z 26.7N  91.6W    90 KT
12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.4N  93.2W    95 KT
24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W   100 KT
36HR VT     13/1800Z 31.3N  95.7W    55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     14/0600Z 34.4N  94.7W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     15/0600Z 41.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 121456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.  IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/1500Z 27.2N  92.6W    90 KT
12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.2N  94.0W    95 KT
24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  95.5W    80 KT
36HR VT     14/0000Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     14/1200Z 36.0N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 122031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE.  STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.  ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST.  ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/2100Z 27.7N  93.5W    90 KT
12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W    95 KT
24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  96.0W    65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     14/0600Z 35.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     14/1800Z 38.5N  89.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 130259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND
VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED
FROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT
WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
95 KT.

THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE
PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS
COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 28.6N  94.4W    95 KT
12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.4W    70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.3W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     14/1200Z 36.6N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     15/0000Z 40.5N  86.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG




WTNT44 KNHC 130854
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
JUST AFTER 0700 UTC.  AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
952 MB.  THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...
SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IKE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.  IKE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11.  IKE IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE
CENTER.  WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.7N  95.0W    95 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.2W    65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     14/0600Z 34.6N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     14/1800Z 38.6N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     15/0600Z 42.5N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 131500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO
THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED
EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS
THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36
HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE'S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE
ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO
ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING
FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS...UNFORTUNATELY...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AS WILL CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 31.0N  95.3W    70 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.1W    45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     14/1200Z 36.7N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     15/0000Z 40.6N  86.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     15/1200Z 44.5N  77.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT44 KNHC 132053
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS STEADILY WINDING DOWN AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT IKE IS BARELY
ABOVE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD...DESPITE THE RATHER LOW PRESSURE OF
980.7 MB RECENTLY REPORTED AT TYLER TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST OT MERGE WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...
AFTER WHICH THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...AND THEN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/16.  IKE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH ARKANSAS...
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS..AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOSTILE
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF MORE THAN 110 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

ALTHOUGH IKE IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN
LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 32.4N  95.3W    40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     14/0600Z 35.1N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     14/1800Z 38.9N  88.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
36HR VT     15/0600Z 43.0N  80.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT44 KNHC 140259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE.  RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
AT ABOUT 982 MB.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
025/21.  EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
HIGH LATITUDES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z 34.3N  93.9W    35 KT
12HR VT     14/1200Z 37.4N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     15/0000Z 42.2N  82.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     15/1200Z 46.8N  71.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/0000Z 51.0N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT44 KNHC 140841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
AND HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
SURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IKE...WITH AN AREA OF
25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS
IS THE FIRST SIGN OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WITH IKE
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER LOW IN
ABOUT 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/26.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE LARGER LOW
AT VERY HIGH LATITUDE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IKE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 36.4N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     14/1800Z 40.4N  87.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     15/0600Z 45.6N  76.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     15/1800Z 50.0N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/0600Z 55.0N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




