WTNT42 KNHC 242056
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011
 
A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72
HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W
LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.
 
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST.  BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE 
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 11.2N  27.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 11.6N  29.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 12.5N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 13.6N  33.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 14.8N  34.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 16.8N  36.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 19.5N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 22.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 250255
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011
 
A 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER PHILIPPE INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY BARELY 35 KT.  SINCE THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ON A GENERAL UPWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IN THE COMING DAYS AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE...THE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY 295/10 KT...IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS PHILIPPE MOVES BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER AND WESTWARD-LEANING MOTION WHILE THE BULK OF THE OTHER
MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.  A
SLOWER MOTION IS FAVORED SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE GFS BY DAY 5.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF PHILIPPE NEVER REALLY TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS...AND THE UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD
DEFINITELY BE COOLER AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...PHILIPPE
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS
PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 11.6N  28.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 12.1N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 13.1N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 14.1N  34.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 15.4N  35.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 18.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 21.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 24.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 250833
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS
WIDENED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND
NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PHILIPPE
REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT TO
THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NUDGED WESTWARD AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 12.0N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 12.8N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 13.9N  33.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 14.9N  34.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 16.2N  35.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 18.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 25.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 251458
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A
NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30
KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD
AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO 
EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING
OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE
ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 12.5N  30.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 13.3N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 14.4N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 16.7N  35.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.3N  37.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 26.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 252047
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG A CURVED BAND
LOCATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND A CDO-LIKE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED.
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY HAVE INCREASED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KT. 

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
SOME MODELS RECURVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...
WHILE OTHERS ALLOW THE RIDGE TO REBUILD...RESULTING IN A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. THIS DISCREPANCY IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY
OF PHILIPPE...AS A DEEPER AND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST
BY LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION
ACCORDINGLY.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE WILL BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
SUBSTANTIALLY...AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 13.2N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 14.0N  33.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 15.1N  34.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.1N  35.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 17.3N  36.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 20.0N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 22.5N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 25.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 260240
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE
IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS PULSED A COUPLE OF TIMES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE APPEARANCE
OF THE CYCLONE ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY IS QUITE RAGGED...
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT.  PHILIPPE IS BEING
KEPT AT 50 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.
 
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND
ITS MOTION IS CURRENTLY 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 40W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
AZORES.  THIS SHOULD KEEP PHILIPPE ON A NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER 48 HOURS.  PHILIPPE SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE
EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW BY DAY 3...BUT THE MODELS APPEAR
TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZORES.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...PRESUMABLY
BECAUSE IT HAS PHILIPPE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AND BEING
STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  ASSUMING THAT THE REAL STORY WILL END
UP BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS BUT
SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE WEAKER
ECMWF.  

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS PHILIPPE REACHING
HURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND IS HIGHER
THAN ALL OF THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER SHEAR.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 14.1N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 15.0N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 16.0N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 16.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 17.8N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 20.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 23.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 25.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 260847
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
 
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW LESS
DISTINCT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE
AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0453 UTC TRMM
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
WEST AFRICA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW
DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. BEYOND TWO DAYS...
HOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER WEST...SHOWING A FAIRLY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE
AND THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...LIES BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND ENDS UP NEAR THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24-36
HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 14.7N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 15.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 16.4N  35.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 17.3N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 18.3N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 20.8N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 23.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 25.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 261434
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
PHILIPPE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  THE STORM IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
DIMINISH...ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 20N
AND...IF THIS FLOW PERSISTS...PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 24
HOURS...CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT IS POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/10.  THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH
DEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT FORECASTS
PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SINCE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE
LATTER SCENARIO IS INDEED PLAUSIBLE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 15.2N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.0N  35.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.0N  36.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 18.0N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 19.1N  38.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 22.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 24.5N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 26.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 262039
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD LINES OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 50 KT AGAIN FOR THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING IMPEDED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TOO
MUCH...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW. 
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. 
AS PHILIPPE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY 36
TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE
LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW NEAR 315/7.  DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC.  BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS.  SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE
MISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  GIVEN
THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120
HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 15.4N  34.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.1N  35.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 17.1N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 18.2N  37.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 19.4N  38.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 22.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 24.5N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 270246
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011
 
AN ASCAT PASS CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 2304 UTC...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS
SHOWN IN THE SWATH WERE 40 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THIS IS THE FIRST
REAL GROUND-TRUTH DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER PHILIPPE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THE LOWERING OF THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN MORE AS
AN ADJUSTMENT RATHER THAN A WEAKENING OF THE STORM.  NONETHELESS...
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING...IF NOT INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE SHEAR COULD
DIMINISH BY DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
COL...AND THAT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP PHILIPPE FROM
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN LOWERED PRIMARILY DUE TO THE ADJUSTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE
SHIPS AND LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
ACQUIRE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE LIFTS NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SET...FIRST SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF...MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE PHILIPPE IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANYWAYS...IT
SHOULD BECOME BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND WOULD MOST
LIKELY FOLLOW THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS THEREFORE A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCA
CONSENSUS...AND EVEN SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT DAY 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 15.9N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 16.5N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 17.4N  36.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 18.3N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 19.5N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 22.0N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 24.0N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 25.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 270847
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE
TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE
SHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH
IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
PHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.
THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN
BYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING
PHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 16.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 16.7N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 17.6N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 18.7N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.9N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 22.3N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 24.0N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 25.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 271433
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40
KT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
BY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE.  THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT
WITH TIME.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  

BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 15.8N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 16.5N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 17.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 18.6N  38.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.7N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 24.5N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 272037
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RATHER RELENTLESS OVER
PHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 15 KT
BRIEFLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SSTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING OF PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WELL BELOW THE DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS WHICH CONTINUE TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING THE
CYCLONE DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THE PERIOD
IF THE CONVECTION BECOMES DISPLACED EVEN FARTHER FROM THE CENTER. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285/6...
TAKING PHILIPPE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AND FASTER FORWARD SPEED AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH OF PHILIPPE. THE GUIDANCE FOR
HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE LEFT AND IS ALSO FASTER FOR THIS
CYCLE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...THE
NEW NHC TRACK STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF PHILIPPE IS BECOMING A
SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TRACK EVEN MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN SHOWN
HERE IS POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE ECMWF. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 16.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 16.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 17.5N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 18.9N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 20.3N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 22.6N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 24.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 25.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 280257
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE LIMITED AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...PHILIPPE IS
CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A RECENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.  THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN ABOUT 36 AND 60 HOURS.  THE SHEAR ALONG
WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PHILIPPE BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND MUCH BELOW THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT
DEEPENS THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  THE UPDATED FORECAST ALSO NOW
SHOWS PHILIPPE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 4-5
DAYS...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASE FURTHER.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES
NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS...A STRONG MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TURN PHILIPPE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 16.1N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 16.5N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 17.7N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 19.1N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 20.6N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 22.8N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 24.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 25.5N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 280900
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WRAP AROUND
THE CIRCULATION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND ADT VALUES
FROM UW-CIMSS. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR IN
36-48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KT OR
HIGHER OVER PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A
SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE FSSE...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AND BRING PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATTER
SCENARIO APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT.
 
PHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BEYOND
THAT...PHILIPPE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE LEFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 16.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 17.2N  39.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 18.4N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 19.8N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 21.2N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 23.2N  45.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 24.5N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 25.5N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 281434
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
PHILIPPE REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...UNTIL A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
MOVES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT DAYS 4
AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...IN LARGE
PART BECAUSE OF A MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  PHILIPPE IS STILL
STRONGLY SHEARED...AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THEN INCREASE AFTER THAT.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AFTER
THAT TIME.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4
DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 16.4N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 17.3N  39.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.3N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 20.0N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 21.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 24.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1200Z 25.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
 

WTNT42 KNHC 282037
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
PERIODICALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB. 

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...INDUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...WILL ALLOW PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD...RESULTING
IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN MORE WESTWARD
MOTION AND AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION TOWARD
THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER PHILIPPE....WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY
DECREASE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS...THE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM FOR 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 17.0N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 17.9N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 19.3N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 20.9N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 23.6N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 25.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1800Z 25.0N  56.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ZELINSKY
 

WTNT42 KNHC 290256
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
PHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS. 
PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 17.4N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 18.3N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 19.8N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 21.2N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.2N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 23.8N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z 24.5N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 290845
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE
BALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS.  SINCE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  UW-CIMSS
AND SHIPS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE CLOSE TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW NEAR 17N46W.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME
INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
AFFECTED BY EXTREMELY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA.  THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY DAY 4.

SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION THE CENTER IS LOCATED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER
UNCERTAIN 300/11.  PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 17.8N  41.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 18.6N  43.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 19.9N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 21.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 22.3N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 23.9N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 24.5N  56.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z 24.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN 

WTNT42 KNHC 291452
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF THE POSSIBLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF
PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A CIRCULAR BALL OF CONVECTION.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUES ARE 45-55 KT...BUT THE LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 35-45
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT. PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...BUT WITH SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MUCH...IF AT ALL. BY 48
HOURS...PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BE BLASTED BY 30 KT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THAT SHOULD
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ODDLY ENOUGH...MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS
EITHER SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE OR VERY LITTLE WEAKENING
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS WHY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN IN THE FACE OF SEEMINGLY
HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. IF PHILIPPE CAN SURVIVE ITS
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO...THEN IT MAY BE
ABLE TO HOLD ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WINDS RELAX
A BIT BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS.

PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT.  AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SECOND
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
SWITCHES TO A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS FROM 96-120 HOURS.  THIS
FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 18.6N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 19.7N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 21.1N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 22.3N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 23.1N  49.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 24.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 292039
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
CONVECTION.  PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING.  PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.  THEREFORE...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 20.2N  43.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 21.4N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 22.8N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 23.8N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 24.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 25.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 25.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 24.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 300301
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED THIS
EVENING.  THERE ARE NO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING.  A TIMELY 2344 UTC ASCAT
PASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AN AREA OF
30-35 KT WINDS.  WITH THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE
TRICKY.  IN THE SHORT TERM...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND
PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.  THIS FAVORS
SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.  BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA.  ONE WOULD EXPECT THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING AT TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES...GIVING A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/11.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES A
WEAKER SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF MODEL.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 21.2N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.3N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 23.5N  47.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 24.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 24.8N  50.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 25.5N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 25.5N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 25.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 300857
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF
RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL-
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS
BEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY.  GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT.
 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING
THE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER...
THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
LOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD
ENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA.
ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT
MAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A
BIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 11
KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS
ESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD
RESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING GENERALLY WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE DUE TO A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER
TIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 21.9N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 22.9N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 23.9N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 24.5N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 24.9N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 25.1N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 25.0N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 24.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 300915
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION

THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF
RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL-
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS
BEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY.  GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT.
 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING
THE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER...
THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
LOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD
ENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA.
ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT
MAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A
BIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 315 DEGREES AT 11
KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS
ESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD
RESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE WHICH HAS A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER
TIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 21.9N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 22.9N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 23.9N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 24.5N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 24.9N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 25.1N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 25.0N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 24.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 301452
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
FINALLY...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE.  A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED CENTER DISSIPATED...AND A NEW CENTER FORMED FARTHER
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  NOW THERE IS NO DOUBT SINCE
THE CENTER HAS RECENTLY POPPED OUT OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. 
BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION...THE CENTER IS MOVING AT AN
UNCERTAIN 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT.  PHILIPPE IS STILL GAINING SOME
LATITUDE AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...BUT A NEW ANTICYCLONE IS ALREADY BUILDING
FARTHER NORTH AND SHOULD FORCE THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD FARTHER SOUTH AND FORCE
PHILIPPE ON A WEST TO JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING ON DAYS 3 AND
4.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE
RIDGE AS MUCH AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE GAINING LATITUDE. 
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...PHILIPPE SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH
WESTWARD PROGRESS BY DAY 5 TO START FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND ALL THE MODELS SHOW
SOME DEGREE OF A NORTHWARD TURN BEGINNING AT THAT TIME.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DIVERGES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AFTER
48 HOURS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND ENDS UP VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A 1212 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW 40-KT WIND VECTORS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. 
HOWEVER...PHILIPPE WILL LIKELY NOT MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY NOW THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM.  BELLIGERENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX A BIT BY DAY 5 ONCE
THE CYCLONE REACHES AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE
HOSTILE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST THEREFORE ALLOWS
FOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STATUS AT THAT TIME.  IN
GENERAL...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE LGEM AND
THE SHIPS MODEL...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 22.9N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 23.8N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 24.6N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 25.3N  50.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 25.7N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 25.5N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 25.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 26.0N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 302042
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RE-COVERED BY DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45
KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.9 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT. 
HILARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERING
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THE
COL REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND IS FORECAST TO BE
CONTINUOUSLY BLASTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS ARE INDICATING UP TO
40 KT OF SHEAR WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS PARADOXICAL...
HOWEVER...THAT NEARLY EVERY INTENSITY MODEL IS EITHER SHOWING
PHILIPPE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS ALONG THE LOWER BOUND OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING AT 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS
NORTH.  THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANT UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT PHILIPPE WILL RECURVE BY DAY 4 OR 5 AS IT
APPROACHES A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 
THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND KEEPS PHILIPPE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE...MOST LIKELY BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW RECURVATURE BY DAY 5 BUT IS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NOT AS FAST AS THE 12Z
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS AT THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 23.5N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 24.2N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 25.0N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 25.7N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 26.1N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 26.0N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 26.5N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 010245
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
 
A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE VERY
HELPFUL IN FIXING THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE AFTER THE CENTER BECAME
OBSCURED...AND INDICATED THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  THE MICROWAVE
DATA ALSO SHOWED A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
RING...BUT THE CURRENT INFRARED DEPICTION SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 AND 35
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...SUCH THAT PHILIPPE COULD WELL SUFFER A BEHEADING AT THE
HANDS OF OPHELIA.  THE LGEM...TRADITIONALLY THE BEST INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEL.  THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IS INEXPLICABLY INDIFFERENT TO THE SHEAR AND SHOWS LITTLE
NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
SHOULD PHILIPPE SURVIVE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AT THAT
TIME. 

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED
TO TURN PHILIPPE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS WEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS TURN WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION PHILIPPE CAN MAINTAIN AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES...WITH A WEAKER OR SHALLOWER SYSTEM
MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LONGER.  BY DAY
FOUR...PHILIPPE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THAT POINT...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING
PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND THE GFS MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWEST. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND SHALLOW BAM...UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN MUCH VERTICAL
COHERENCE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 24.0N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 24.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 25.5N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 26.1N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 26.5N  53.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 27.0N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 28.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 31.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 010851
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE STORM IS NOT WEAKENING. IN FACT...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS
NOW AS COLD AS -85C. A 0501 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION...AND THAT THE VORTEX WAS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HEIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. HOWEVER...
RECENT ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE A
LITTLE STRONGER.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.
PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...THE
SAME ONE THAT IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF OPHELIA...ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SHARPER TURN AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF MODEL.
 
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PHILIPPE. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE SHEAR VECTOR TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO NEAR 40
KT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING. IF PHILIPPE IS ABLE TO
SURVIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER
SHEAR. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE
LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE LGEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 24.3N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 25.0N  48.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 25.7N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 26.2N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 26.4N  54.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 26.6N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 28.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 32.0N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 011445
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
PHILIPPE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY LIMITED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT.

PHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
AND HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 300 DEGREES AT 8
KT.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...AND
THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS.  THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONSEQUENTLY MAKE A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  ALL OF THE TRACK
MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SMALLER CUT-OFF
LOW AND LEAVES PHILIPPE IN A WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THIS MAKES THE
GFS A SLOWER...SOUTHERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS.  OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4
AND 5.

THIRTY TO FORTY KNOTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS BECOMING
MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RESILIENT ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND
THIS ENVIRONMENT.  PHILIPPE WILL BY NO MEANS BE A HEALTHY-LOOKING
CYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION AND REMAIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT MOVES OVER
WARMER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND INDICATES WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN PHILIPPE ENTERS
A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS OF
LOW CONFIDENCE...IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE INTENSITY MODELS DURING THAT
PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 24.8N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 25.4N  49.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 25.9N  51.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 26.1N  53.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 26.0N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 30.5N  58.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 012033
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
AN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW
BIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT
MEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT.  GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT INDICATES THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF WEAKENING
AND RE-STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE.  THE REASONING FOR THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PHILIPPE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO AND SHOULD INDUCE SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX BY DAY 4 WHEN PHILIPPE
REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME 
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA...
AND THAT SHOULD TURN PHILIPPE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE BY DAY 3 WITH PHILIPPE RESPONDING BY SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE GFS
IS STILL A SLOWER AND SOUTHERN OUTLIER...HAVING PHILIPPE MISS THE
TROUGH AND GETTING STUCK TO THE SOUTH OF A POST-FRONTAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON DAYS
4 AND 5.
 
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII AND THE
12-FT SEAS RADII WERE REQUIRED ON THIS FORECAST ADVISORY. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 25.2N  49.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 25.6N  50.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 25.9N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 25.8N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 25.7N  57.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 26.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 28.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 32.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 020252
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY
DECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND
RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
 
THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS
PHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE
WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE
LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND
THE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
FORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 25.4N  49.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 25.8N  51.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 26.0N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 25.8N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 26.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 28.0N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 020834
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
SINCE THE ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0100 UTC...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS OF PHILIPPE WERE NEAR 60 KT...THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  PHILIPPE IS A STRONGLY SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE...ALBEIT SHEARED...REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED.   

PHILIPPE IS GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN
THREE TO FOUR DAYS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS...
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 KT...ACCORDING TO
THE SHIPS MODEL...IT HAS YET TO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO WEAKEN. THE
INTENSITY MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CALL FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. AFTER 
THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE
RESTRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...
LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE AT THE LATTER FORECAST TIMES
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM BECOMING
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT BY DAY 5. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
MODEL SHOWS PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE...PERHAPS DUE TO
BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 25.6N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 25.8N  52.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 25.7N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 25.6N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 25.6N  58.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 26.5N  61.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 28.5N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 32.0N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 021444
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IT ONLY
TOOK 30-40 KT OF SHEAR TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.  DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  IN
ADDITION...VARIOUS SATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM THE CIMSS GROUP AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE PROVIDING ESTIMATES BETWEEN 40 AND 45
KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 45 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY.
 
AS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLIER
THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARED TO MAKE A JOG TO THE
NORTHWEST.  THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
ITS NORTH.  THE CYCLONE REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 72
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE IT TO TURN SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 AND 4.  SOME ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST
IS FORECAST ON DAY 5 AS PHILIPPE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE BAM SHALLOW
MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A MORE ACCURATE MOTION RECENTLY.
AFTER 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER RE-CURVATURE
THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF AND THE BAM SHALLOW AND MEDIUM MODELS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE
HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
TAKING IT A STEP FURTHER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING PHILIPPE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. 
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 26.3N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 26.5N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 26.3N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 26.2N  57.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 26.3N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 28.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 30.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 32.5N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 022034
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
A NEW ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND IS PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE.
DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT DUE TO
THE NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE THAT
A 60-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POINTED DUE SOUTH INTO
PHILIPPE...SO THE CYCLONE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BELLIGERENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE.  THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND FOSTER SOME RE-STRENGTHENING
BY DAY 3 WHEN PHILIPPE REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAN THE ONE PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE-
PRODUCING GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  ON THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS.
 
PHILIPPE IS AVERAGING A MOTION OF 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT...BUT A
SHORTER-TERM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE TURNED
TOWARD THE WEST AS FORECAST.  THERE HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE.  ALTHOUGH
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A WIDER
AND SHARPER RE-CURVATURE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THAT TREND
IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z CYCLE.  IN ADDITION...THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN THAT SOLUTION...AND EVEN THE
ECMWF NOW SHOWS A SHARPER TURN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...EVEN
SHOWING A BRIEF WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 26.3N  52.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 26.2N  54.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 25.7N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 25.4N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 25.5N  60.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 27.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 29.0N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 31.0N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 030247
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE FACE OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE NORTH. PHILIPPE MAY BE SOMEWHAT RESILIENT IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS CONFINED TO LEVELS ABOVE 300 MB INSTEAD OF
EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. A BLEND OF DVORAK
T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND RECENT ADT VALUES SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE IS
MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE
HOSTILE SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
48-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR WEAKENS...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT PHILIPPE IS EXPERIENCING
NOW...SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT REMAINS A TAD
BELOW IT AT LATER TIMES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING. WHILE
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD TO EVEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
PHILIPPE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...DIFFERENCES
ARE SEEN IN THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN. THESE DIFFERENCES
ARE LARGELY RELATED TO THE LATITUDE OF THE STORM WHEN IT FIRST
ENCOUNTERS THIS DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...
WHICH KEEP THE PHILIPPE FARTHER NORTH...FAVOR A QUICKER AND SHARPER
TURN WHILE THE GFS AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH LIE FARTHER SOUTH
INITIALLY...DELAY THE TURN AND ARE NOT AS SHARP. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY GROUP OF GUIDANCE GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN
THE OBSERVED MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 26.1N  53.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 25.6N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 25.5N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 26.1N  61.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 27.8N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 30.2N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 32.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 030852
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT OVERPASS JUST
AFTER 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE
LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO 45 KT...
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR IS
PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER THAN
EXTENDING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS COULD BE
THE REASON WHY PHILIPPE HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS DESPITE BEING IN ANALYZED SHEAR OF 30 KT OR HIGHER. 
NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN THE 36-72 HOUR
TIME FRAME...AND THAT COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL STORM TO STRENGTHEN. 
BEYOND A FEW DAYS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  

PHILIPPE APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE STORM
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE THREE TO
FIVE DAY TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR PHILIPPE. THIS SPREAD
IS IN PART DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE IN
THE MODELS. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
FOLLOWED SUIT. 

THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 25.8N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 25.6N  56.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 25.5N  58.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 25.8N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 26.5N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 28.3N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 30.5N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 33.0N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 031454
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
 
SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST
RECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE
DIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THE
ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.
 
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH
REASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER
SOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE
PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT.  THE 00 UTC
CYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE
12 UTC CYCLE.
 
WITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS
250 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING
PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3.  A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION
IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES
VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 24.8N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 25.0N  57.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 25.2N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 25.7N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 26.5N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 32.5N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 032037
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011
 
PHILIPPE IS TILTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
NORTHERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5...OR 55
KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE
CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE REACHES
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  RE-CURVATURE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED BY 48-72 HOURS...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC
MODELS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TRENDED SLOWER.  BASED ON THIS
CHANGE...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOWED DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS OF BEING IN A HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH COULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  ALL
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO...AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOWING PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE AT THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY THAT TIME.  IT IS STILL A LITTLE DISCONCERTING THAT THE
12 UTC CYCLE OF THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN THAT MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE
LEFTOVER VORTEX COULD BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.  IF THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE A DELAY BEFORE IT IS NEGATIVELY
AFFECTED BY THE DEVELOPING SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
ALLOWS PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND DAY 4...BUT IT IS
STILL LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 24.6N  56.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 24.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 24.8N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 25.2N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 25.8N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 27.5N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 30.5N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 040236
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011
 
PHILIPPE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN. WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECENTLY WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR SOME TIME. THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
AFFECTING THE STORM HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED. A LATE AFTERNOON
MICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN CLOUD MASS...WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE
IN THE TILT OF THE VORTEX SINCE EARLIER TODAY. OVERALL...THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND AN
AVERAGE OF 0000 UTC DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS RESULTS IN HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT.
 
PHILIPPE HAD BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 240/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD COURSE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...EQUATORWARD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY 36 HOURS...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A COMPLEX AND AMPLIFIED
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND SLOW BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE BY 72 HOURS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST THIS CYCLE AND IS NOW
FORECASTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD NOTED
AT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER RE-LOCATION AND
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THEIR
BETTER HANDLE ON THE BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MOTION. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS IS FOR PHILIPPE TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 72 AND 120
HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN SHEAR OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND
A FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGING UPON PHILIPPE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...
PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS BELOW THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FORECAST OVER PHILIPPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 23.7N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 23.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 23.9N  60.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 24.5N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 25.3N  61.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 28.7N  56.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 30.3N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 040836
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011
 
PHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE
HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...THESE ESTIMATES YIELD TO LOWER WINDS
THAN EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT
PHILIPPE IS A HURRICANE. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I WOULD LOVE TO
HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO REALLY KNOW THE TRUE INTENSITY OF
PHILIPPE.
 
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR
RELAXES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEFORE IT BECOMES ATTACHED
TO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE TREND AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...BUT
THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
 
PHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAPPED SOUTH OF
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AS IT REACHING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE PHILIPPE TO SHARPLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR
RECURVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  PHILIPPE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EACH
OTHER BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THIS IS THE TREND INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS
HAVE PHILIPPE MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 23.6N  58.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 23.5N  59.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 23.8N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 24.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 26.0N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 27.5N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 29.0N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 041448
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011
 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A COUPLE MORE MICROWAVE IMAGES ARRIVED
AND INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE REMAINED
WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH 1000 UTC.  THE IMAGES REVEALED A LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  THIS DATA ALONG
WITH DVORAK AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WAS
POSSIBLY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE
MASS.  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT.
 
ACCORDING TO A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS...PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER
ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR.  AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO A NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO.  AFTER 48 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE AND
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  PHILIPPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A FRONT WITHIN 4 OR 5 DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS PHILIPPE AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS.
 
PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS NEARING
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON.  THE
LARGE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO RECURVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER GIVEN ITS TENACITY 
PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINED AS A CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 23.9N  59.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 24.0N  60.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 24.5N  61.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 25.4N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 26.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 28.5N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 31.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 36.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 042032
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011
 
THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC SHOWED A FEW 50
KT BARBS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 55 KT.  

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH
HAS BEEN AFFECTING PHILIPPE FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS SHOULD ABATE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE BUT SMALL REGION
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME.  STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE AFTER
48 HOURS...YET FOR THE MOST PART THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WEAKENING.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LGEM...WHICH TENDS TO
HANDLE SHEAR BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND IT IS HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AT DAY 5
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST TO ME THAT IT HAS
EITHER JUMPED TO THE NORTH...OR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.  REGARDLESS...PHILIPPE HAS AN AVERAGED
INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT AND IS ABOUT START ITS SHARP
RE-CURVATURE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...THE ECMWF IS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.  THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO
DIFFER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BY HAVING PHILIPPE STAY FARTHER
SOUTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
IT BECOMING THE MAIN THE PARENT CYCLONE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT IS THEN VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 24.1N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 24.5N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 25.2N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 26.3N  61.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 27.3N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 32.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 36.5N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT42 KNHC 050236
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS AGAIN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY.  CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A MID-LEVEL EYE
IS SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB...AND...BASED ON THIS AND
THE LACK OF CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT.  

PHILIPPE HAS BEGUN ITS FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW 300/6.  THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD RECURVE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE
MODEL FORECASTS OF THE EVENTUAL FATE OF PHILIPPE.  THE GFS...
CANADIAN...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FORECAST A
NORTHWARD OR EVEN WEST OF NORTH MOTION BY 120 HOURS AS PHILIPPE
MERGES WITH THE TROUGH.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
PHILIPPE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY
ABSORBS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND SHOWS PHILIPPE TURNING
NORTHWARD BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING.  THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A 36-48 HOUR WINDOW OF MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AS THE CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING
INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FORECAST TO START AT AROUND
96 HOURS AND FINISH BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS FORECAST A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 24.6N  60.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 25.3N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 26.1N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 27.2N  60.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 28.4N  59.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 30.5N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 40.5N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 050844
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011
 
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A VERY RAGGED EYE
OCCASIONALLY.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS
AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.  MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LOWER SHEAR
LASTING FOR A DAY OR SO.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
SPECTRUM BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AFTER THAT TIME...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  USUALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING WOULD BE CALLED FOR WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...BUT ONLY A
MINOR DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
BAROCLINIC FORCING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY DAY
4...AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE EVEN
HAVE PHILIPPE EXTRATROPICAL NEAR DAY 3 IN THE LATEST RUNS...BUT I
DID NOT WANT TO SHOW SUCH A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
SOME COARSE AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT
300/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS.  A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS LIKELY WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH
SHOULD ALSO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO MOVE AT AN INCREASING PACE BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE STRONGER
MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT IS A BIT FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL TRENDS.  THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEARS TO BE A DIFFICULT ONE TO
FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT BEING WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL
BECOME THE MAIN NON-TROPICAL LOW OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF PHILIPPE...THE NHC
FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE ABSORBED SCENARIO.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 24.7N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 25.3N  61.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 26.5N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 27.8N  60.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 28.9N  58.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 31.5N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 38.0N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT42 KNHC 051456
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011
 
PERSISTENT PHILIPPE CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ON THE DOWNSHEAR...OR
SOUTHEAST...SIDE OF THE CENTER.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM  
40 KT FROM AN 0839Z AMSU CIMSS ANALYSIS ON THE LOW END TO 55 KT
FROM THE TAFB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER ON THE HIGH END.  55
KT IS RETAINED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY GENEROUS.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED OUTWARD SOME
BASED UPON THE 0839Z AMSU CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS.

A PAIR OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM FNMOC JUST BEFORE SYNOPTIC TIME
ALLOWS FOR A FAIRLY ACCURATE INITIAL POSITION.  BASED UPON THIS AND
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING THAT SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER
IS JUST TUCKED IN UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST...AN INITIAL MOTION OF
310/5 IS ANALYZED.  THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND RECURVATURE SHOULD COMMENCE
SHORTLY.  THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TURN PHILIPPE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. 
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROGRAM MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

PHILIPPE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. 
THE WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A WARM 28C UNDER THE TRACK OF
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM
HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CAUSES THE SHEAR TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. 
ADDITIONALLY...PHILIPPE IS SURROUNDED BY QUITE DRY AIR AS SHOWN IN
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THOUGH NOT MUCH OF THAT MAY
ACTUALLY BE REACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE WITH LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPINNING UP THE
CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP IV15
CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS AND THEN NEAREST TO THE SHIPS MODEL
THEREAFTER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNANIMOUS BY ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO OCCUR BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS WHEN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE TRANSITION.  AN 120 HOUR POINT IS
INCLUDED HERE AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE PROMINENT EXCEPTION
OF THE ECWMF WHICH KILLS OFF THE STORM AFTER 72 HOURS... CONTINUES
PHILIPPE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST FIVE DAYS. 
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 25.3N  61.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 26.0N  61.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 27.0N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 28.2N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 29.3N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 34.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 40.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 46.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 052056
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF PHILIPPE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY.  A 1753
UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN BANDING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...RECENT
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AROUND 55 KT.  IT SEEMS THAT
THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY DECREASING AS PREDICTED AND
PHILIPPE HAS A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE ON
THURSDAY.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER
AND PHILIPPE WILL ALSO BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS MUCH BELOW THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS.  BY 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY SHOW PHILIPPE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PHILIPPE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/5 KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD 
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO 
IN MOVING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN DAYS 4
AND 5.  AS A RESULT...THE NEW TRACK SHOWS LESS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 25.8N  61.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 26.6N  61.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 27.8N  59.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 28.8N  57.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 29.9N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 35.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1800Z 41.5N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z 45.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 060240
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011

PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHILE AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65
KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO
ABOUT 10 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6.  PHILIPPE IS RECURVING TO THE EAST
OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION MAY
OCCUR AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND
MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE PHILIPPE HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED...THERE WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  FOR THE MOST PART...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THAT TIME...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER 24
HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND BE
COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON PHILIPPE
MAINTAINING GALE TO STORM INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 26.4N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 27.4N  60.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 28.5N  58.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 29.3N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 30.8N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 37.0N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 43.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 52.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 061444
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011
 
AFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS
FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  A 1009Z SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM FNMOC SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...WHILE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD COVER WITH AN
EYE PERHAPS BECOMING VISIBLE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.5 AND 4.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.
THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT AT ADVISORY TIME.
 
PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8
KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION
OF PHILIPPE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
WHILE PHILIPPE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY...THIS PEAK WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE DRASTICALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SO WHILE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SHEAR AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS...AS THE PURELY DYNAMICAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
UNREALISTICALLY IMPERVIOUS TO THE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND
CONSEQUENTLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE.  AROUND 48
HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS
AROUND THE CYCLONE.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW...THOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK A
TRANSITION.

THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 27.8N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 28.6N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 29.6N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 31.0N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 33.4N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 39.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z 45.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z 51.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 062045
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED INSIDE A
RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVE A CURRENT-INTENSITY NUMBER OF
4.5...OR ABOUT 77 KT.  A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE SUGGESTS 75 KT FROM A
1649Z POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE PASS. THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER 82 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT...WHICH MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE. A 1228Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED THE WIND
RADII ANALYSIS...EVEN SMALLER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER.
 
PHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KT...
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION
OF PHILIPPE IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE
OCCLUDES AROUND DAYS THREE AND FOUR BEFORE ACCELERATING A FINAL
TIME IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AROUND DAY FIVE.  THE TRACK
PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE SHARP GRADIENT OF INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF PHILIPPE MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH PHILIPPE WILL BE PASSING
OVER A SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TO SUSTAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THEIR
EARLIER INSISTENCE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE.
 
THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 28.7N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 29.5N  57.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 30.4N  55.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 31.9N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 35.3N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1800Z 40.5N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1800Z 45.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 54.0N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 

WTNT42 KNHC 070255
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN RECENT HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
WERE T4.5 AT 0000 UTC AND THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE WAS
4.8.  USING THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT.
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS PATH. AFTER 36 HOURS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE 26C-ISOTHERM AND RECEIVE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. POST-
TROPICAL PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
GALE/STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OUT TO ABOUT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS
THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
THE HEADING HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 050/10.  THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD GIVE THE
CYCLONE A KICK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. 
AFTER PHILIPPE MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED
CYCLONE...THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND BRIEFLY DECELERATE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A JUST-RECEIVED 0042 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 29.1N  58.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 29.9N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 37.3N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0000Z 42.0N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z 47.9N  38.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z 58.0N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 070840
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY
MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON
MICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR
4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. 
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER.
 
PHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES
AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST-
TROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 29.6N  56.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 30.5N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 32.5N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 36.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 40.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z 44.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0600Z 51.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z 61.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 071447
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011

SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EYEWALL OF PHILIPPE HAS
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING SSTS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE STORM.  ALSO...RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THESE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 75 KT.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT HIGH LATITUDES.
 
PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINING A FORWARD MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS
GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 
INIT  07/1500Z 29.9N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 37.0N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 41.0N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z 47.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1200Z 55.0N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
 

WTNT42 KNHC 072033
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011
 
THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE HAS DETERIORATED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
DAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED.
PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY...A NOAA DRIFTER BUOY 41558
RECENTLY PASSED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND REPORTED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 989 MB...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING IS
OCCURRING. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON THE
RECENT RAPID DECLINE OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER THE GENERAL REASONING FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
 
PHILIPPE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED
FORWARD MOTION IS 070/11 KT.  DESPITE THE SLOWING...AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE REMNANTS OF
PHILIPPE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII
FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOW GUIDANCE PROVIDED
BY THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 30.1N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 31.5N  51.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 35.0N  47.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 39.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1800Z 42.5N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1800Z 49.5N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1800Z 58.0N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
 

WTNT42 KNHC 080244
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011
 
PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40
KT...HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE LATEST
DVORAK CI- AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60
KT. CONTINUED HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO
THE CYCLONE...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL STORM TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS WHEN IT MERGES WITH
A COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/14. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT APPROACHES PHILIPPE. AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
 
THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE 34-KT AND
50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON A 0022 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 30.7N  52.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 32.7N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 36.6N  45.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 40.1N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0000Z 43.0N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 50.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z 58.0N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 080836
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011
 
AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0509 UTC AND ANOTHER ONE AT 0618 UTC CONFIRMED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH EXCEPT THAT IT IS BECOMING
MORE ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS KEPT AT 989 MB BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 990
MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH OR BECOME
ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. AS THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 31.1N  50.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 33.5N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 37.5N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1800Z 41.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0600Z 44.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 58.0N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 081454
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011
 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES AND REPORTS FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41575
INDICATE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. OTHERWISE...THE CYCLONE IS ON TRACK AND IS
ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/25 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
PHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AHEAD 
OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BACK AROUND TO A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE
PHILIPPE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLD WATERS THAT LIE JUST NORTH
OF 37N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN
AND TVCA.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 40 KT...COUPLED WITH
SSTS BELOW 24C...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. PHILIPPE COULD ALSO MERGE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BE FULLY POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS OVER
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 33.2N  47.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 35.7N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 39.1N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0000Z 42.5N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1200Z 46.3N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z 54.0N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1200Z 59.0N  18.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 082053
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD 
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED 
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER 
COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING 
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND 
UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD 
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY 
FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED 
BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 35.3N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 37.4N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/1800Z 40.5N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 44.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 48.5N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 56.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT42 KNHC 082052
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD 
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED 
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER 
COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING 
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND 
UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD 
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY 
FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED 
BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 35.3N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 37.4N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/1800Z 40.5N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 44.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 48.5N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 56.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

