WTNT35 KNHC 022039
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE 
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 022049
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
CORRECTED TO CHANGE DEPRESSION TO STORM IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE 
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 

WTNT35 KNHC 022342
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
...ERNESTO BEGINNING TO AFFECT BARBADOS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITES AND THE BARBADOS RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
22 MPH...35 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
SHOULD PASS NEAR BARBADOS LATE TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 030034
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

CORRECTED CENTER DISTANCE FROM BARBADOS
 
...ERNESTO BEGINNING TO AFFECT BARBADOS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITES AND THE BARBADOS RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
22 MPH...35 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
SHOULD PASS NEAR BARBADOS LATE TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 030040
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
CORRECTED CENTER DISTANCE FROM BARBADOS
 
...ERNESTO AFFECTING BARBADOS...
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITES AND THE BARBADOS RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
22 MPH...35 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
SHOULD PASS NEAR BARBADOS LATE TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 030232
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY TOWARDS BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BARBADOS RADAR INDICATED
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
13.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS NEAR BARBADOS LATER TONIGHT...BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 031141
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...WIND GUST TO 63 MPH IN SAINT LUCIA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES
NEARBY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR FROM GUADELOUPE AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED OVER OR VERY NEAR SAINT LUCIA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24
MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER
THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ST. LUCIA RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H...AND BARBADOS JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...68 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.49 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 030844
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...ERNESTO A LITTLE WEAKER...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 60.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL MOVE VERY NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER THIS
MORNING. 
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 030554
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSING NORTH OF BARBADOS...EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 59.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...DATA FROM THE BARBADOS RADAR AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
23 MPH...37 KM/H....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 031453
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THE
APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
NONE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
 
SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 032033
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT35 KNHC 040842
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER...INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR
ITS PROGRESS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 67.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA LATER TODAY. 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 041443
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ERNESTO WEAKER DESPITE THE WELL
ORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA
SUNDAY EVENING AND THE MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
  
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. 


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 041737
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WHICH WAS MEASURED AS THE PLANE
WAS DEPARTING THE CYCLONE.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. 
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE. 
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 042031
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...ERNESTO RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 042358
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 050247
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 72.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...MOVE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 050547
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. ERNESTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT...MOVE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 050840
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...RAINS FROM ERNESTO NOW REACHING JAMAICA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO
PUNTA CASTILLA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. SOME SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 051159
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...ERNESTO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST.  ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. 
 
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42058...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. SOME SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT35 KNHC 051444
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...POORLY-ORGANIZED ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 
* GRAND CAYMAN
 
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.  SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT35 KNHC 051453
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  16...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

CORRECTED FORMAT IN WATCHES AND WARNING SECTION.
 
...POORLY-ORGANIZED ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.  SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT35 KNHC 051739
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 77.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.  SOME SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HAITI TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT35 KNHC 052035
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND
CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT35 KNHC 052354
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND
CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 060252
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE
WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE
WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 060536
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY MORNING. 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN
THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 060841
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 061159
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 061455
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 061629
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

CORRECTED NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN FIRST CHANGES
PARAGRAPH OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION.
 
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 80.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ALLEN TO TULUM.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 061753
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 062039
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER 
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED 
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 062333
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE STORM...

 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H AND
A GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 070240
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...
205 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 070554
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
 

WTNT35 KNHC 070850
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 83.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 071159
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HEADS TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 071211
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

CORRECTED HEADLINE.
 
...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 071222
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
CORRECTED TO REMOVE DUPLICATE TIME AND FORECASTER NAME BELOW.

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 071455
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 071753
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 072052
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
TONIGHT...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR HONDURAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT.  THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 072356
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE 
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER 
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THIS EVENING.  THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO
MOVES OVER LAND.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 080010
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

CORRECTED MOTION IN 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
 
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO
MOVES OVER LAND.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 080242
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE
NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO
ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 080543
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST.  ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST 
NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING.  RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
WHERE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.  
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
 

WTNT35 KNHC 080849
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF TULUM HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF
MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. 
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING.  RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ERNESTO COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.  A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 080855
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM

...ERNESTO BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF TULUM HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF
MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. 
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING.  RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ERNESTO COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.  A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 081200
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 89.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST.  ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON.  ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING.  RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ERNESTO
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 081449
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 90.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO
TULUM...CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTALA TO TUXPAN.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...
EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...AND BE
NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND ELSEWHERE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 081731
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO HEADED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 90.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER LAND.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND ELSEWHERE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 082034
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 91.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON
THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  CIUDAD DEL CARMEN RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 12 INCHES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT35 KNHC 082352
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LASHING 
THE STATE OF CAMPECHE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 91.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADARS FROM MEXICO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER
TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION...
ACCOMPANIED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON
THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H AND A GUST TO
58 MPH...93 KM/H. SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING AT OFFSHORE OIL RIGS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 12 INCHES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 090251
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...ERNESTO FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS STORM GETTING STRONGER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADARS FROM MEXICO TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION... ACCOMPANIED
BY FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER
LAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO...VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND
NORTHERN OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT35 KNHC 090554
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER 
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF PARAISO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...1600 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
  
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST.  ERNESTO IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
WEST...NOW NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO...VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND
NORTHERN OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 090847
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO THIS MORNING...HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO
  
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 091156
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...ERNESTO ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS... 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 94.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER LAND WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SINCE ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND
SHORTLY...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 091439
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...ERNESTO HANGING AROUND NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND SOON BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 94.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND
DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WACHES AND WARNINGS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
IS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY
AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. 
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 091740
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING ANTICIPATED AS ERNESTO SKIRTS THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE ERNESTO HAS BEEN
SKIRTING THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. AT 100 PM
CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST. ERNESTO HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THESE STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER NORTH
OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 092035
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL AROUND 100 PM CDT NEAR THE CITY OF
COATZACOALCOS MEXICO WITH 60 MPH WINDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 95.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR COATZACOALCOS AT 1800 UTC...1 PM
CDT...ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED MOVING INLAND...AND AT 400 PM
CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THESE STRONG WINDS ARE PRIMARILY
OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN DAY OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND NEAR THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH
ERNESTO ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT35 KNHC 092347
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...ERNESTO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS IT MOVES
INLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 95.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM W OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER
WATER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN DAY OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA AND NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH
ERNESTO ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 100240
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AS ERNESTO
WEAKENS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 96.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM N OF OAXACA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
CENTER OF ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
EARLY FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 100553
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012
 
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 97.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF OAXACA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR CENTER OF ERNESTO THIS MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT35 KNHC 100840
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012
 
...ERNESTO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...HEAVY
RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 97.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF OAXACA MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR CENTER OF ERNESTO THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...OAXACA...AND GUERRERO THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

