WTNT41 KNHC 222044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. 
DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35
KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7. 
THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO
OFCI.
 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. 
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 13.4N  35.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  36.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N  39.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N  42.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.3N  44.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 23.0N  54.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N  57.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 230300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND
1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -90 C.  AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY
SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
3.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A
RECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
STRENGTHENING.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 14.2N  35.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.9N  37.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.9N  40.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N  43.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N  46.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.7N  50.8W    75 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 24.5N  54.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  57.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT41 KNHC 230833
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -85C DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0351 AND 0541 UTC...
RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER LIES ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAN
PREVIOUSLY NOTED.  THE BURSTING PATTERN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH BEFORE.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE 3.4. USING A BLEND
OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.
 
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A
MOTION TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...300/12.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN A FEW DAYS. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE.  TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND
IS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DANIELLE
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A GENERALLY UNIFORM LAYER OF EASTERLY FLOW. 
SINCE THE STORM WILL BE OVER 27-28C WATER TEMPERATURES AND IN A
LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A PERIOD OF GREATER INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT DANIELLE COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 14.8N  37.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N  39.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.9N  42.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 18.3N  44.9W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.9N  47.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 23.5N  51.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 26.5N  54.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 231438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010

AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING...
AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 290/14.  THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY
DAY 5.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN WATERS.  AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  BY DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE
INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH.  THERE
IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON
HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.1N  39.4W    55 KT
12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  41.5W    65 KT
24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  44.5W    75 KT
36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N  47.2W    80 KT
48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  49.5W    85 KT
72HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  53.5W    90 KT
96HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  55.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  57.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG




WTNT41 KNHC 231438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010
 
AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING...
AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 290/14.  THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY
DAY 5.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN WATERS.  AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  BY DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE
INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH.  THERE
IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON
HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.1N  39.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  41.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  44.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N  47.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  49.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  53.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  55.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  57.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 232033
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
 
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING.  A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION.  DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS.  THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15.  A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 15.4N  41.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  43.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N  46.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.6N  48.8W    95 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N  51.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N  55.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  57.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  58.5W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 240237
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE THIS EVENING. A 2148 UTC SSMIS
OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL
TILT...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT ON
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE
SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65
KT...RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE HURRICANE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WARM OCEAN
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY...OR EVEN
RAPID...INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THAT WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/17. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES NEAR THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.6N  43.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.7N  45.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.3N  47.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.1N  49.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.2N  52.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  55.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  57.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 31.0N  59.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT41 KNHC 240834
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
PULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
IS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.

AN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...BUT A 0434
UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.  THAT
OVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...280/17.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W.  DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
28-29C.  THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A
35% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
SHEAR...BUT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.9N  44.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.9N  46.6W    95 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  48.9W   105 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N  51.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N  52.9W   100 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  55.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 28.0N  57.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  59.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 241442
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
 
THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
TO ITS WEST.  ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC
SHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED.  DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE
HURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS
ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME...
WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS
HELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF
CONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH 
AND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17.  THIS MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  LITTLE CHANGE IS
REQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION
BUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 5.  THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK
MOTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 16.6N  46.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N  48.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.1N  50.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  52.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.8N  53.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N  56.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 28.5N  58.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 32.0N  59.5W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 242040
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
 
WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS
UNRAVELED DURING THE DAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY
BEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY.
FINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR
T3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL
STORM.  WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE
ENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY
DANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A
HURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE
BECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY
AFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL
AT THIS TIME.
 
DANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5
OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 17.5N  48.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  49.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 20.2N  51.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N  53.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 23.7N  55.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N  58.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.5N  61.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 33.0N  61.5W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 250256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT
DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING.  FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48
HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE
STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING
FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS
HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE.
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH
CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 18.2N  49.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N  51.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 21.3N  53.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N  55.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.4N  57.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  60.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  61.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 33.0N  61.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 250319
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT
DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING.  FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48
HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE
STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING
FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS
HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE.
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH
CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 18.2N  49.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N  51.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 21.3N  53.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N  55.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.4N  57.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  60.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  61.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 33.0N  61.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 250328
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT
DANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
FEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING.  FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48
HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE
STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING
FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS
HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE.
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH
CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 18.2N  49.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N  51.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 21.3N  53.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N  55.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.4N  57.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  60.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  61.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 33.0N  61.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 250838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM
0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL.  CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST.  USING A BLEND
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY.  BOTH OF
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE
WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL.  A SHORT WAVE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A
FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. 
LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 18.8N  51.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  52.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.8N  54.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.3N  56.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  58.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  61.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  62.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 250930
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

CORRECTED 70 KT TO 75 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM
0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL.  CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST.  USING A BLEND
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY.  BOTH OF
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE
WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL.  A SHORT WAVE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A
FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. 
LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...
SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 18.8N  51.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  52.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.8N  54.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.3N  56.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  58.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  61.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  62.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 251441
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

DANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH
CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO
EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT
FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15.  DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  AFTER
THAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST
RIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
ECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE
TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE
IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
THE SHEAR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72
HR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 19.6N  52.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 20.8N  53.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N  55.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 23.7N  57.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 24.9N  59.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.5N  61.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  62.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 34.0N  62.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 252030
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C...AND A FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN SEEN
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ANALYSES
FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS
STILL AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/15.  FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING
THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED. 
THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.  THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING
NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF IT THEREAFTER.
 
DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN 12-18 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
THE SHEAR.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR DANIELLE DURING THE 24-72 HR
TIME FRAME...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER SHEAR
THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE LIGHTER-SHEAR SCENARIO AND CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT
IN 72 HR.  THIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/GFDN AND
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SHIPS/LGEM.  AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 21.2N  53.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N  54.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N  56.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 24.8N  58.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.1N  60.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  62.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 32.0N  62.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 35.0N  62.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 260240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EXTENDS
AROUND THE HURRICANE...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME
MORE CIRCULAR WITH SIGNS OF A RAGGED EYE. MICROWAVE PASSES FROM
2000-2200 UTC CONFIRM THIS TREND AND SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYEWALL THAT IS MOSTLY CLOSED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO
85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE SIZE OF
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING ON SATELLITE...AND WIND
ANALYSES FROM CSU/CIRA ALSO SHOW THIS GROWTH. BASED ON THE ABOVE
DATA...THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED.
 
IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING
AS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE BY LATE
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIELLE. 
THIS IS A COMMON SYNOPTIC SITUATION THAT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION
AND NOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE DANIELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND AN INCREASE
IN SHEAR.  THIS SCENARIO IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.   
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 320/15 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND
EVEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT RECENTLY.  A LARGE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CAUSING IT TO MOVE A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH...BUT THE TROUGH IS
RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM DANIELLE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RIDGE TO
REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE
TRACK BY TOMORROW NIGHT. IN A FEW DAYS...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE
REMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THE HURRICANE WILL SIMPLY RECURVE OUT
TO SEA WITH THAT TROUGH...OR WHETHER IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND
RESUME A SLOWER MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE MOST RELIABLE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THAT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 22.4N  54.1W    85 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 23.7N  55.6W    90 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N  57.4W    95 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.1N  59.3W   100 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  60.8W   100 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  62.3W   100 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 33.5N  62.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 37.0N  61.5W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 260856
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010
 
AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING IN COVERAGE.  BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
5.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS EXCELLENT EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AS THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DANIELLE TO
INTENSIFY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER
72 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO
THOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  DURING THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DANIELLE WILL BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN 30N AND 35N.
AFTER THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE
MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF HOW QUICKLY DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWARD...AND
IF AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT
FOR THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS
AND NOGAPS FARTHEST WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND FASTER TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT
IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 23.4N  54.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N  56.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.8N  58.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  59.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 28.3N  61.1W   105 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  61.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 35.5N  60.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     31/0600Z 38.0N  59.5W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 261440
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

DANIELLE HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES IN ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE.  THE EYE THAT WAS APPARENT FROM 05-07Z DISAPPEARED AT
ABOUT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION. 
SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS RE-APPEARED...EMBEDDED IN A RAGGED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BE SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/13.  IN THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE
NORTHEAST.  THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE
INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE
FIRST 48 HR...AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
FROM 72-120 HR.  ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT
DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR 48 HR OR SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24-48 HR AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT IN 24 HR. 
AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 24.4N  55.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  57.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  59.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.8N  60.4W   100 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.3N  61.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 33.0N  60.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 36.5N  58.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     31/1200Z 39.0N  55.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 262035
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -75C IN
THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED.  THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  THE CIRRUS IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13.  FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD
BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT...A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO
RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THOSE
EXCEPTIONS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST DANIELLE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN STALL NORTH OF BERMUDA.  THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR DANIELLE
TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW
TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY.
 
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT
DANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KT IN 24 HR.
AFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION MAY BE UNDERWAY BY 120 HR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETED AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 25.2N  57.0W    95 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  58.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  60.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 28.6N  61.1W   105 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  61.2W   105 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 34.0N  59.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 37.5N  56.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     31/1800Z 39.5N  51.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270235
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010
 
RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS
CONTRACTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL
CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 0000Z WERE 90...90...
AND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. ALTHOUGH THE
EYEWALL CONTRACTION IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM...IT IS PREFERABLE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL CONSERVATIVELY REMAIN 95 KT.
DANIELLE HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS LEFT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH
LIGHT-TO- MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. AFTER THAT TIME...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  

DANIELLE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315/10.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. 
THEREAFTER... THIS RIDGE ERODES AWAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
THAT DANIELLE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THAT TROUGH AND RECURVED OUT TO
SEA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...THEN IS MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO NOW BECOMING VERY
LIKELY.  THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 25.8N  57.6W    95 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.7N  59.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  60.4W   105 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  60.9W   105 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  60.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 38.5N  50.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270541
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
 
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS
CONTRACTED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT...AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A RING
OF TOPS COLDER THAN -60C.  A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB
AT 0415 UTC YIELDED A DATA-T NUMBER OF 6.0/115 KT.  BASED ON A
BLEND OF THIS ESTIMATE AND AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES OF 5.5/102
KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK
OF 115 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0600Z 26.2N  58.1W   105 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.7N  59.0W   110 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  60.4W   115 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  60.9W   115 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  60.3W   110 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 38.5N  50.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270848
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...WITH INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS.  BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CURRENT ADT
VALUES AROUND 6.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT.  LOW
SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SHOW A PEAK AT 120 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND 36 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING BY DAYS 3 AND 4.  BY DAY 5...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 72
HOURS...DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS.  AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NEW FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 26.5N  58.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  60.0W   115 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 28.9N  60.9W   120 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 30.6N  60.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 32.9N  59.2W   105 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 37.5N  54.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     31/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 41.5N  31.5W    65 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 271451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF DANIELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT
AND EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE STARTED TO COOL AND THE COLDEST CLOUD RING NOW ENCIRCLES THE
EYE ABOUT 75 PERCENT. THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T5.9/114 KT
AND AN ODT OF T6.1/117 KT FROM NHC. A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
DANIELLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW
BRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE
MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
THROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION
AT 12Z. THE GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30N
LATITUDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF DANIELLE ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT IS CONVERGING INTO A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHEAST COULD BUILD THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND SLOWER
RECURVATURE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER
RECURVATURE OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND TURN
IT MORE POLEWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER
AND MORE POLEWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
OUTFLOW REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THE IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...DECREASING SHEAR...AND SSTS OF 29C...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IN THE
96-120 TIME PERIOD...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS-GFDL-HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 26.9N  59.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 27.9N  60.8W   115 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  61.2W   115 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  60.3W   110 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 34.3N  57.6W    95 KT
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 38.0N  52.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     31/1200Z 40.5N  43.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 46.0N  28.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 272043
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
 
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DANIELLE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE
DURING THE DAY AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS VERY
DISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED DANIELLE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND MAXIMUM
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 119 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 107 KT
SURFACE WINDS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE ONLY 101 KT...HOWEVER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A CONSENSUS
T6.0/115 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.4/125 KT... AND HAVE
BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...AND IS STILL
INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY 24 HOURS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE
OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD 
OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AT HIGHER
LATITUDES BY 96 HOURS...AND THEN TURN IT SHARPLY POLEWARD BY 120
HOURS AS A STRONG AND DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 96
HOURS...AND THEN A MORE POLEWARD AT DAY 5...WHICH REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC.
 
DANIELLE MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER 29C
SSTS. BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DECREASING SSTS TO INITIATE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND 96 HOURS OR
SO...DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES
WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 120
HOURS AS A VERY LARGE 60-KT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST
OF BERMUDA...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 27.3N  60.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 28.6N  61.0W   120 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  60.8W   110 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 32.8N  59.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 35.1N  56.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 38.4N  49.7W    75 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 41.8N  39.1W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 50.0N  28.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 280245
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE
HAS STARTED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A 60 NM WIDE OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AROUND THE 15-20 NM
WIDE INNER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS
COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
DANIELLE. THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 335/8.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DANIELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER.  THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE SPEED OF MOTION DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE EUROPEAN AND THE UKMET.  THE TRACK FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES.
 
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DANIELLE WILL HAVE TIME TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR IN 24 HR OR SO.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR 12 HR...WITH
STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN
AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST DANIELLE TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH TRANSITION...
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 28.1N  60.6W   115 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 29.2N  60.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  59.4W   110 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 34.2N  57.1W   100 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 36.8N  53.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  37.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 51.5N  28.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 280850
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH
RADII OF 20 AND 60 NM AROUND 0345 UTC...AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAD CONTINUED TO ERODE.  THE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT AND A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE WILL
NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
EYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED
BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THE TRANSITION PROCESS.
 
THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AND SHOWED THAT DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/8.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS
DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL SLOW
TEMPORARILY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE FIRST UPPER-TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...AND THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS
ANOTHER TROUGH CAPTURES THE CYCLONE AND THEN PULLS IT SHARPLY
NORTHWARD BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WAS MADE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 28.6N  61.0W    95 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  60.6W    95 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 33.2N  58.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 36.7N  56.1W    90 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 38.9N  54.3W    85 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 41.5N  47.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 47.1N  32.4W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  35.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 281455
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
 
THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS AND A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF
DANIELLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THE OUTER
CONCENTRIC RING LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI FROM THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IS WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC...AND APPEARS TO
BE CLOSE TO COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS TRACK OVER
COOLER WATER. IT IS WORTH NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT THE SHIPS MODEL
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS
DECREASED FROM 14 TO 4 PERCENT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE OF THIS
SCENARIO COMING TO FRUITION. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY WILL MAINTAIN A WIND SPEED OF 95 KT FOR 12
HOURS...THEN SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. BY THE 96
HOUR PERIOD...DANIELLE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING DURING THIS EVENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 020/8. 
DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH MOVING
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. A TEMPORARY
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST NEAR THE 36-48 PERIOD AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT DAY
3...ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEAST CANADA...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
CAUSE DANIELLE TO SHARPLY TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT BECAUSE OF THE 6 HOUR MOTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN
BEYOND DAY 3. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 29.3N  60.5W    95 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 31.2N  59.5W    95 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 34.6N  57.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 37.7N  54.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 39.5N  53.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 42.5N  42.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 51.0N  30.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     02/1200Z 55.0N  35.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 282033
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL EXISTS. THE AMSU IMAGE ALSO SHOWED
THAT THE 45 NMI DIAMETER OUTER CONCENTRIC RING HAS ERODED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO HAS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE.  THE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT PREVENTING DANIELLE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND
REFLECTS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY THEREAFTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/11.
DANIELLE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
NEAR THE 36 PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. AT DAY 3...ANOTHER CANADIAN PULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
INDUCE A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING A 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 30.3N  59.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 32.3N  58.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 36.1N  55.6W    85 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 38.8N  53.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 40.3N  50.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 45.0N  38.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 53.0N  33.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     02/1800Z 54.0N  41.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290248
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
 
CONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR
THE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE
BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90
KT.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE
IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.   IN 24-36 HOURS...THE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.   INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY
WILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 31.5N  58.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 34.2N  56.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 37.5N  54.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 39.4N  52.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 40.8N  48.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 45.0N  34.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 52.5N  30.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...
DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS
ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE
TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 33.2N  57.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 35.9N  55.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.3N  53.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.8N  50.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 41.1N  46.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290248
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

CONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR
THE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE
BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90
KT.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE
IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.   IN 24-36 HOURS...THE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.   INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY
WILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 31.5N  58.8W    90 KT
12HR VT     29/1200Z 34.2N  56.8W    85 KT
24HR VT     30/0000Z 37.5N  54.7W    75 KT
36HR VT     30/1200Z 39.4N  52.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     31/0000Z 40.8N  48.7W    65 KT
72HR VT     01/0000Z 45.0N  34.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     02/0000Z 52.5N  30.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




WTNT41 KNHC 290838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...
DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS
ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE
TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 33.2N  57.3W    80 KT
12HR VT     29/1800Z 35.9N  55.5W    75 KT
24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.3N  53.6W    70 KT
36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.8N  50.7W    65 KT
48HR VT     31/0600Z 41.1N  46.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000

WTNT41 KNHC 291501
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS DEPICTED IN THE
GEOSTATIONARY AND POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY.  VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE 0948Z TRMM AND 0950Z SSMIS
SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM
TAFB...OR 77 KT...AND 4.0 FROM SAB...OR 65 KT. A 0830Z AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
WINDS...BASED UPON A WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE.
 
DANIELLE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...23 KT...TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THE MODELS ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEPICTING MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR
THE 96 HR POINT. THAT FORECAST POSITION IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF IT BECOMING
ABSORBED.

DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME BAROCLINICITY WHICH IS
BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER ITS TRACK. ALL DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT A FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN
ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND ET IS INDICATED HERE AT 48 HOUR. AFTER THIS
TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND
REMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4 DAYS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BIT
HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND HURRICANE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A HIGH
END TROPICAL STORM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  BY DAY
5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED
POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF DANIELLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 35.5N  55.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 38.0N  53.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 39.7N  51.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 40.9N  48.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 43.1N  42.3W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  34.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 57.5N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 292046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND DANIELLE HAS BECOME RATHER ASYMMETRIC WITH
MOST OF THE COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. CORRESPONDING...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND TAFB ARE DROPPING WITH 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND 4.0...OR 65
KT...RESPECTIVELY. FORTUNATELY...A FORTUITOUS ASCAT PASS WAS
RECEIVED FROM 1404Z WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE HURRICANE 
FORCE WIND VECTORS. A CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM A 1626Z
NOAA-19 OVERPASS EVEN SUGGESTED CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...THOUGH
THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT
AS A BLEND OF THESE. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME
BAROCLINICITY... WHICH IS BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A
CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 25 KT. THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE WERE
FOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX RATHER THAN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND POLAR ORBITING MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX IS STILL COHERENT VERTICALLY. DANIELLE
SHOULD DECELERATE SOME AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE
MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX IN ABOUT 48 HR WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS A PROMINENT BAROCLINIC
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF DANIELLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE VORTEX
FROM DANIELLE BECOMING ABSORBED AT THAT TIME. ASSUMING THAT 
DANIELLE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...A TRACK FORECAST IS PROVIDED THROUGH 96 HR. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HR BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION
THAN ANTCIPATED...AND THEN SIMILAR TO BOTH THEREAFTER. UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER
ITS TRACK. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED POSITION...
INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF
DANIELLE.
 
THE 1404Z ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT ENLARGEMENT OF THE
34...50...AND 64 KT WIND RADII ESTIMATED FOR THE INITIAL TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 38.0N  54.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 40.1N  52.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 41.3N  50.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 42.3N  45.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  39.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 51.0N  30.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 57.6N  32.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 300250
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO AN ELONGATED BAND IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER
AND TAKES ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...
A UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 29/2133 UTC STILL INDICATED
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE...AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND
A PRESSURE OF 968 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF
THE AMSU ESTIMATE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB.
 
DANIELLE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DANIELLE HAS CLEARLY BEEN CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE FLOW PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES SLOWER THAN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS LATITUDE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAYS
3 AND 4 AS A LARGER AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND ACTS TO KICK OUT THE EXTRATROPICAL
DANIELLE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AFTER THAT.
 
DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY 72 HOURS
FROM THE LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA...
WHICH WILL HELP THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY
STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.
 
THE 34-KT WIND RADII REMAIN LARGE AND ARE UNCHANGED BASED ON LIMITED
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. 12-FT SEAS
RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM TAFB AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 39.3N  53.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 40.8N  51.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 42.0N  47.4W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 43.5N  42.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 45.1N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 51.5N  27.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 60.0N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 300841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED
DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 87 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS 
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN
SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH
LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN
LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.
 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII
AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 40.4N  52.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 41.6N  49.3W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 42.7N  44.3W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  38.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  32.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 53.0N  26.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 63.0N  32.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 301449
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.
SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED
70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB
PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
 
DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS
EVENING.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION
WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.
 
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT.  THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND
FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 40.9N  50.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 41.9N  47.7W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 43.4N  41.2W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  24.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 53.0N  21.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 61.5N  38.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 291501
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

DANIELLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS DEPICTED IN THE
GEOSTATIONARY AND POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY.  VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE 0948Z TRMM AND 0950Z SSMIS
SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM
TAFB...OR 77 KT...AND 4.0 FROM SAB...OR 65 KT. A 0830Z AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT HIGHER
WINDS...BASED UPON A WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE.

DANIELLE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...23 KT...TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THE MODELS ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEPICTING MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR
THE 96 HR POINT. THAT FORECAST POSITION IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF IT BECOMING
ABSORBED.

DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME BAROCLINICITY WHICH IS
BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER ITS TRACK. ALL DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE THAT A FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN
ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND ET IS INDICATED HERE AT 48 HOUR. AFTER THIS
TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND
REMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4 DAYS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BIT
HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND HURRICANE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A HIGH
END TROPICAL STORM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  BY DAY
5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED
POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF DANIELLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 35.5N  55.5W    75 KT
12HR VT     30/0000Z 38.0N  53.8W    70 KT
24HR VT     30/1200Z 39.7N  51.9W    65 KT
36HR VT     31/0000Z 40.9N  48.5W    60 KT
48HR VT     31/1200Z 43.1N  42.3W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  34.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     02/1200Z 57.5N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG




WTNT41 KNHC 292046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND DANIELLE HAS BECOME RATHER ASYMMETRIC WITH
MOST OF THE COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. CORRESPONDING...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND TAFB ARE DROPPING WITH 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND 4.0...OR 65
KT...RESPECTIVELY. FORTUNATELY...A FORTUITOUS ASCAT PASS WAS
RECEIVED FROM 1404Z WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE HURRICANE
FORCE WIND VECTORS. A CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM A 1626Z
NOAA-19 OVERPASS EVEN SUGGESTED CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...THOUGH
THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT
AS A BLEND OF THESE. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME
BAROCLINICITY... WHICH IS BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A
CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 25 KT. THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE WERE
FOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX RATHER THAN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND POLAR ORBITING MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX IS STILL COHERENT VERTICALLY. DANIELLE
SHOULD DECELERATE SOME AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE
MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX IN ABOUT 48 HR WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS A PROMINENT BAROCLINIC
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF DANIELLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE VORTEX
FROM DANIELLE BECOMING ABSORBED AT THAT TIME. ASSUMING THAT
DANIELLE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...A TRACK FORECAST IS PROVIDED THROUGH 96 HR. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HR BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION
THAN ANTCIPATED...AND THEN SIMILAR TO BOTH THEREAFTER. UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER
ITS TRACK. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED POSITION...
INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF
DANIELLE.

THE 1404Z ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT ENLARGEMENT OF THE
34...50...AND 64 KT WIND RADII ESTIMATED FOR THE INITIAL TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 38.0N  54.5W    70 KT
12HR VT     30/0600Z 40.1N  52.9W    65 KT
24HR VT     30/1800Z 41.3N  50.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     31/0600Z 42.3N  45.5W    55 KT
48HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  39.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     01/1800Z 51.0N  30.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     02/1800Z 57.6N  32.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG



000

WTNT41 KNHC 300250
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO AN ELONGATED BAND IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER
AND TAKES ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...
A UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 29/2133 UTC STILL INDICATED
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE...AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND
A PRESSURE OF 968 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF
THE AMSU ESTIMATE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB.

DANIELLE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DANIELLE HAS CLEARLY BEEN CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE FLOW PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES SLOWER THAN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS LATITUDE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAYS
3 AND 4 AS A LARGER AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND ACTS TO KICK OUT THE EXTRATROPICAL
DANIELLE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AFTER THAT.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY 72 HOURS
FROM THE LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA...
WHICH WILL HELP THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY
STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII REMAIN LARGE AND ARE UNCHANGED BASED ON LIMITED
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. 12-FT SEAS
RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM TAFB AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0300Z 39.3N  53.0W    70 KT
12HR VT     30/1200Z 40.8N  51.2W    60 KT
24HR VT     31/0000Z 42.0N  47.4W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT     31/1200Z 43.5N  42.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT     01/0000Z 45.1N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     02/0000Z 51.5N  27.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     03/0000Z 60.0N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 300841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED
DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 87 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN
SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH
LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN
LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII
AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY
OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 40.4N  52.0W    65 KT
12HR VT     30/1800Z 41.6N  49.3W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT     31/0600Z 42.7N  44.3W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  38.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  32.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     02/0600Z 53.0N  26.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     03/0600Z 63.0N  32.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000

WTNT41 KNHC 301449
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.
SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED
70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB
PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.

DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS
EVENING.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION
WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT.  THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND
FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1500Z 40.9N  50.7W    65 KT
12HR VT     31/0000Z 41.9N  47.7W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT     31/1200Z 43.4N  41.2W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  24.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     02/1200Z 53.0N  21.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     03/1200Z 61.5N  38.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG



000

WTNT41 KNHC 302034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
DANIELLE IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
YESTERDAY AND RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE.  USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 3.5...OR 55 KT.  AN AMSU
MEASUREMENT OF THE WARM CORE INDICATED 62 KT AT 1616Z USING THE
CIMSS TECHNIQUE.  BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...DANIELLE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  A 1340Z ASCAT
PASS ALLOWED US TO CONTRACT IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
SOMEWHAT.
 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD PROCEED QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  ALL
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE
DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  DANIELLE SHOULD
REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH PEAK
INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE FOR A DAY OR SO.
 
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. 
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE IS
ANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR. THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED
POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF DANIELLE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 41.3N  49.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 42.0N  45.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 45.5N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 48.0N  23.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 55.5N  23.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 310249
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...AMSU MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM-CORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT BUT IS
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN
THE VICINITY OF DANIELLE IN RECENT HOURS.  DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION...WEAKENING OF THE WARM-CORE AND A NON-TROPICAL
SATELLITE APPEARANCE...DANIELLE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL
STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OVERTAKING DANIELLE BY LATE TOMORROW. 
 
THE CENTER IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH...MAKING THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/13 SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DANIELLE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND ACCELERATING AROUND
A LARGE 500 MB CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF GREENLAND
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 41.3N  47.1W    60 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 42.3N  41.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 44.3N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  26.6W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 50.7N  22.8W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

