WTNT41 KNHC 281200
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.
 
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1200Z 30.8N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 32.4N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 281437
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF JOSE IN RECENT
HOURS.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN RE-DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IRENE HAS PREVENTED ANY BURST FROM LASTING
TOO LONG. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR
35 KT...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN...
THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT WOULD NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOSE
BECOMES DEFORMED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-36
HOURS IN PART BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12.  JOSE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  AFTER WEAKENING...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE SHOULD TURN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LOSING ITS
IDENTITY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 31.5N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 33.6N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 36.6N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 282043
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
JOSE REMAINS A SMALL AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF ABOVE 35 KT. ALSO...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR ON
BERMUDA AND ALSO BY A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT DATA AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ASIDE FROM THE EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF JOSE QUICKLY BECOMING DEFORMED AND DISSIPATING IN A
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE AND
INDICATES DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
JOSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/14.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK.  JOSE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 33.2N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 35.7N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 39.7N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290246
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...JOSE HAD THE CLASSIC APPEARANCE...ALBEIT
QUITE COMPACT...OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RADAR DATA
FROM BERMUDA. SINCE THAT TIME JOSE HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CYCLONE STILL HAS
VERY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION
SPIRALING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0/30 KT...THE
INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT GIVEN THE TIGHT SPIRAL
BAND APPEARANCE NOTED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/18 KT. JOSE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS A RESULT OF NO DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG 55W LONGITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...JOSE SHOULD BECOME A
SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VERY COLD WATER...AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AFTER PASSING BRIEFLY THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...JOSE IS NOW MOVING INTO A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST 
AND AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THESE
TWO CONVERGING STREAMS OF AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...ALONG
WITH SSTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C IN 12-18 HOURS...SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN
OF THIS COMPACT CYCLONE...WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS
WHEN THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE OVER SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 35.0N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 37.8N  64.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 41.3N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290841
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

JOSE WAS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ABOUT SIX HOURS
OVERNIGHT BUT HAS RECENTLY REGAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT
NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...NEAR THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0100 UTC STILL SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF WINDS AROUND 35 KT...AND THAT
WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE VERY COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY AND MOVE OVER WATERS NEAR 25C THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE COOL WATERS...VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND THE
EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF JOSE
SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24
HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. 
STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL STEER JOSE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.    
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 37.2N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 40.1N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

