WTNT31 KNHC 281456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 82.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.  
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 


WTNT31 KNHC 290853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
 
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION EMERGING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIT...HEAVY
RAINS SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE ON THURSDAY.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA AND
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
TODAY.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 


WTNT31 KNHC 291149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
 
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...CENTER
RELOCATED...
 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 81.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA.  AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND 
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING 
AREAS TODAY.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 


