WTNT31 KNHC 291452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER STILL NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  A MOTION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF NICOLE WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE NICOLE IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON
THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. 
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 


WTNT31 KNHC 291745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
 
...CIRCULATION OF NICOLE BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 80.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.  

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST.  NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A MOTION
BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE NICOLE IS
ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 


