WTNT41 KNHC 141458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF
THE INTENSITY.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH
BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  HOWEVER...IT
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
HONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD
APPEAR LIKELY.  OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND
THE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.6N  83.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  83.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  85.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 142052
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING
THE DAY TODAY.  HOWEVER...A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT
HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGEST
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS.  FOR THE
TIME BEING...WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE
MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  REGARDLESS...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND NO MORE THAN AROUND
25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.
 
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER
INLAND OVER HONDURAS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING.  A
TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WHILE A TRACK
SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 15.7N  83.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.9N  84.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.1N  85.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N  86.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  88.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 150256
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER
RECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
WATER...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS...BUT ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND
SOONER...POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...A
GENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 16.2N  83.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.3N  85.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.2N  87.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N  88.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK
 

WTNT41 KNHC 150840
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY CONSISTS OF TWO CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION
THAT ARE RATHER DISTANT FROM THE APPARENT CENTER.  IT IS DIFFICULT
TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE HONDURAS COAST.  THE SYSTEM HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED
BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT OVERNIGHT...AND SINCE THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
25 KT.  AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T MOVE OVER LAND...ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER. 
HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TAKE A TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT MAY NEVER BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AT ALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE FOR THE
ENSUING NHC FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.0N  84.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  85.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  86.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  87.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 151511
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

CONVECTION AROUND THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY MORE
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ITS CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS BUOY/HONDURAS STATION
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.  MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 265
DEGREES AT 4 KT.  A SLOW MOTION WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
DRIVE THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN...THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASED INITIAL MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE RATHER UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY...MAY BE
ISSUED WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...I.E. LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...AND A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HWRF AND GFDL MODELS' TRACKS REMAINING OFFSHORE
LONGER THAN UTILIZED HERE ALLOW THOSE MODELS TO INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION UP TO A 40-45 KT TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE DECAY
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS REMAIN JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD
FOR A TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION STILL IS
CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...A
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL IF
THE CENTER AND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINBANDS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF HONDURAS AND
PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS CALL FOR DISSIPATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITHIN FOUR DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  84.5W    25 KT...ON THE COAST
12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N  85.1W    30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.8N  86.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT     17/0000Z 15.6N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.4N  88.8W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 152049
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING NEARLY NON-EXISTANT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN
OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42056...A SHIP REPORT...AND QUIKSCAT/ASCAT
PASSES.  AT LEAST A PORTION OF THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE MODERATE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THE SHIP H3VR DID REPORT 33 KT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THIS OBSERVATION MAY BE A FEW KT HIGH AFTER EXAMINING
THE SHIP'S HISTORY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 30
KT...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOW INLAND OVER NE HONDURAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH HONDURAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALLOW FOR A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S POSITION AND
MOTION - 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME SPURIOUS TRACK OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF...CONTINUES
THE CYCLONE OFF TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED UPON THIS SELECTED CONSENSUS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST TRACK...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS TO KEEP THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER LAND...NO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGE STATISTICAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ITS NORTH MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED FOR AN
INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN A DAY OR TWO AND THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THREE DAYS.  ONE
POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF THIS CYCLONE MAY
REDEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS TIME.

THE MAIN RISKS FROM THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS THAT MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 15.5N  85.4W    30 KT
12HR VT     16/0600Z 15.4N  86.4W    30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     16/1800Z 15.3N  87.7W    25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.3N  88.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.7N  89.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 160238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

SURFACE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.  THE DEPRESSION HAS THUS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0300Z 15.3N  85.9W    25 KT
12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.1N  86.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N  88.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     17/1200Z 15.1N  89.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME




