WTNT24 KNHC 210231
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
0300 UTC THU OCT 21 2010
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  81.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  81.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N  80.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N  80.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.4N  81.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N  81.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N  84.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N  90.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  81.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
 
 

WTNT24 KNHC 210842
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
0900 UTC THU OCT 21 2010
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  80.7W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  80.7W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  80.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N  80.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N  81.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  20SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  20SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.0N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  80.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

