WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
STILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER.  A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14.  A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
STEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.   THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  
 
THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.8N  30.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 15.5N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.3N  36.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.5N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 17.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 042032
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER OF FLORENCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCASE PATTERN.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. 
SINCE A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SUGGESTED THAT SOME
PRIMITIVE INNER CORE FEATURES HAD FORMED...AND BOTH AMSU AND ADT
DATA INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
BUMPED UP TO 45 KT.  

THE CURRENT SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN WITH FLORENCE APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS
PASSING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26.5C...AND IS APPROACHING A MORE
STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY EUMETSAT RGB AIRMASS
IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. 
THE STATISTICAL-BASED TOOLS FORECAST FLORENCE TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS CONTRASTED WITH THE
WEAKENING FORECAST BY THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS JUST A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  GIVEN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE STRUCTURE...IT IS
TEMPTING TO RAISE THE WIND PREDICTION MORE THAN WHAT IS INDICATED
BELOW...BUT I HAVE ELECTED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...295/13.  A BUILDING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE FLORENCE TO BEND TO A WESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A WIDER SPREAD THAN
EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.  GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT ARE FORECASTING A MORE
POWERFUL SYSTEM...SUCH AS THE GFS...ARE CAUSING FLORENCE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. 
A WEAKER CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF...WOULD PROBABLY JUST
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD.  SINCE THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 15.3N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.8N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 16.2N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 16.6N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 17.1N  41.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 18.5N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 23.0N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 050250
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
FLORENCE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  EARLIER TRMM AND WINDSAT OVERPASSES REVEAL A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE UNDERNEATH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE MASS...
WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION NOW PRESENT.  A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC AND THREE-
HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES OF AROUND 3.3 ARE THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY.  DESPITE BEING IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH A TONGUE OF
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...
EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY A RATHER DRY AIR MASS...AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY FLORENCE ON ITS WESTWARD TREK. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS
SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WOULD NOT LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  EVEN THOUGH THE
STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BY THIS TIME...THE SHEAR
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER
THAT TIME.  THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TRACK OF FLORENCE TO BEND TOWARD
THE WEST.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. ALTHOUGH
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...IT
REMAINS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK
SOLUTIONS AT LATER TIMES APPEARS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL DEPTH/
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF FORECASTING A
WEAKER VERSION OF FLORENCE AND THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER SYSTEM.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES
BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE CAMP OF MODELS FAVORING A WEAKER
CYCLONE GIVEN THE SHEAR FORECAST.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 16.1N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 16.5N  34.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 17.0N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 17.5N  39.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 18.1N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 19.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 20.9N  55.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 23.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 050837
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST TO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTELY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRUCTURAL
CHANGES...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS BEFORE...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT.
 
FLORENCE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-R PROVING
GROUND SHOWS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND GFS AND ECMWF MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR BY TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN SHEAR.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 13
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT FLORENCE
WILL BEND TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE NHC
FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST
OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS UP TO THIS POINT.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 16.8N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.1N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 17.5N  41.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 18.0N  44.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 19.3N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 21.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT41 KNHC 051439
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON
THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF
A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH SOME DEGRADATION NOTED ON
MICROWAVE IMAGES.  A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES STILL GIVES
A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  THERE
HAS BEEN A CHANGE WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  PERHAPS THIS IS
BECAUSE OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAN WAS
EXPECTED YESTERDAY.  IN ANY EVENT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE
MOVING DEEPER INTO THE DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ALTHOUGH
SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE RISING...STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY WITHIN
48 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE NHC PREDICTION IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM
BECAME A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED BELOW GIVEN THE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW THAT FLORENCE HAS TURNED
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  A FASTER WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT TIME...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD BRING FLORENCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  WHILE THE ECMWF IS A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE STORM.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AT ALL FORECAST TIMES...BUT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 16.5N  35.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.7N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 16.9N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 17.4N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 18.0N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 21.5N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.0N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 052034
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS FALLEN APART NEAR FLORENCE...WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS REMAINING.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND THE WIND
SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT.  DESPITE THE RECENT
DECAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RATHER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.  THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN THE
GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER CLUSTER IS LOWER THAN
BEFORE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR OR BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 3...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD HAPPEN A LOT
SOONER.  

FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT.  THIS
MOTION AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD...AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 16.3N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.4N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.7N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 17.2N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 17.8N  47.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 19.5N  54.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z 21.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z 24.5N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 060242
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
FLORENCE HAD BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE UNTIL A
BURST OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE MASS OF SAHARAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH THE
EFFECTS OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR FLORENCE TO MAINTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB.
 
EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO WARMER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER FLORENCE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR FLORENCE TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.  THIS FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS...THE LATTER
OF WHICH FORECAST DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BEING DISCOUNTED...SHOWS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OF FLORENCE SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...LYING CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 16.2N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 16.3N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.7N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.3N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 18.1N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.9N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z 22.0N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  67.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 060832
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012
 
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST
PRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND
SUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON.
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 16.2N  38.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.3N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.6N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 17.2N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z 18.1N  51.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z 20.4N  58.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z 23.5N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

