WTNT44 KNHC 161749
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. BASED ON A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND 54 KT MEASURED AT AN ELEVATION OF ABOUT 2500
FEET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE WIND
RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1800Z 29.1N  85.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 30.2N  85.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 32.1N  87.1W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  88.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
 

WTNT44 KNHC 162032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009
 
EARLIER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAD BECOME EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION SGOF1...TYNDALL AFB TOWER C...LOCATED
ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLAUDETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR
WEAKENS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12. THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATING NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 29.5N  85.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 30.9N  86.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 32.7N  87.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  88.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
 

WTNT44 KNHC 170247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009
 
CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.   MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND
APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE
CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.  WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.
 
THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS
MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND
REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND
WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 30.2N  86.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.3N  87.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  88.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 170851
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
400 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE
MADE LANDFALL AROUND 0510 UTC...ALONG THE EASTERN END OF SANTA ROSA
ISLAND...JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.  DOPPLER
VELOCITIES HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING AND THERE HAVE NOT BEEN
ANY RECENT REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 35 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE STRONG
CONVECTION OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ON THIS
BASIS...CLAUDETTE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN  
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER
INLAND.  
 
CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST MODEL ENVELOPE.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND
WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 30.9N  87.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 32.1N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 33.9N  88.9W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 35.8N  89.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

