WTNT41 KNHC 311710
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.    

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1700Z 18.1N  88.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  94.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  95.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 18.5N  96.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME
 

WTNT41 KNHC 312044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
 
ARTHUR REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DESPITE BEING CENTERED OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ARTHUR HAS A
LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CLOUD PATTERN
ARTHUR IS KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER
INLAND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS.  A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR EVEN INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.4N  88.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.7N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N  93.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N  97.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME
 

WTNT41 KNHC 010258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
 
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z
BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD
TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS.  OTHER
LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE.  DATA FROM
THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
LONG IT WILL LAST.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER. 
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND
CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.  IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 18.4N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N  93.6W    30 KT...NEAR COAST
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 010853
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN NIGHT-VIS
IMAGERY...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BUT NONE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER.  SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS....ARTHUR WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST AT 6 KT...AND WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE.  ALL OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR INLAND OVER
MEXICO...AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH.  

WITH THE CENTER OF ARTHUR FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...MOST LIKELY
THE BEST THAT IT CAN DO IS TO MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO
A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...WITH DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW
EXPECTED IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.  A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT THE
CENTER COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE....ALTHOUGH
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WOULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD THIS OCCUR.     

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ARTHUR REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 18.3N  90.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.2N  90.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.1N  91.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N  95.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 011436
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
ARTHUR'S CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
ARTHUR COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. 
 
ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 250/07.  A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
 
DESPITE THE DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST
WEAKENING...ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 18.1N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N  91.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N  92.5W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N  93.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 17.4N  94.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 012047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
WHILE ARTHUR'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE...A
RECENT REPORT FROM SHIP A8MI2 OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
INDICATES THE MAX WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT.  ADDITIONALLY...
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  STILL...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAVING BEEN
INLAND FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND INCREASINGLY HIGH TERRAIN IN ITS
ANTICIPATED PATH...ARTHUR APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME.  THE
CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...245/5...IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.
 
ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  91.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N  92.9W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.9N  93.9W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.9N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 020244
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
FOR MANY HOURS ARTHUR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING MORE RUGGED TERRAIN WHILE
PROCEEDING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND IT HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED
AND ELONGATED AND MIGHT NOT EVEN BE CLOSED.  THEREFORE...THIS WILL
BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THIS CHANGE IN STATUS...
HOWEVER...DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD HAS
ENDED.  SINCE THE CLOSED CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING...NO
FORECAST POINTS ARE PROVIDED...BUT THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND
NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW....SO
HEAVY RAINS COULD PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PERHAPS
LONGER.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 17.4N  91.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

