WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD
CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL
A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH
AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE
CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS
FIRST ADVISORY.  SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7.  HOWEVER THE
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF
THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.  THROUGH
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.5N  68.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  68.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 31.0N  69.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 50.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1800Z 53.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT41 KNHC 260257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
 
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE
EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF
994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT.  THERE WERE ALSO A
FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON
BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO
HIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN
WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS
NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM...HWRF...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE
GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE
KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE
PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.  IN
ADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.8N  68.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  68.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  68.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 32.4N  68.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 36.3N  68.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 44.5N  65.5W    60 KT...INLAND...NOVA SCOTIA
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 50.0N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 260903
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB SLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 63 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A
47-KT SURFACE WIND. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 50 AND 53 KT
WERE MEASURED BENEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO A BLEND
OF THESE VALUES YIELDS AN AVERAGE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 50
KT. THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 997 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE THAT WAS MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE. 
 
RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THE MOTION IS NOW
350/10 KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KYLE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH EVENTUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK
IS NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THAT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE POINT OF RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. 00Z
UPPER-AIR HEIGHT DATA FROM BERMUDA WAS IN ERROR TO DUE A BAD
BASELINE...BUT THE 00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FILTERED OUT THIS
ERRONEOUS MASS FIELD DATA. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA WAS GOOD...AND
THE BACKING WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INDICATES THAT
RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. ALSO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND A MUCH LARGER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AZORES.
SINCE OMEGA BLOCKS ARE GENERALLY STABLE PATTERNS...THE MODELS MAY
BE BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA TOO QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PREMATURE RECURVATURE BY
THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS. SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE U.S. CAPE COD AREA
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL
RUNS. ONLY THE UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP KYLE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. ONCE KYLE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THE
VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE
REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FAST
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE HWRF MODEL.
 
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 25.6N  68.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  68.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 30.5N  69.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.0N  69.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 38.5N  69.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 45.7N  66.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 51.0N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 261451
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
 
KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHILE
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT.  BASED ON
THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE
IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER
THAT...KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT
APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE
NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE
AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
A STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY
DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.  AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE
RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE
TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT.  WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE
STRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOST GUIDANCE...BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER 48
HR...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY
COLD WATER.  WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN...IT MAY STILL BE OF
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE
MARITIMES.  AFTER LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
 
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 26.4N  68.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 28.6N  69.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 31.7N  69.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 35.5N  69.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 46.5N  66.0W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 52.0N  62.0W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 262100
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
 
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003
MB...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB...WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING...KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO
THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS
345/11...BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH.  KYLE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE
NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. 
BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  HOWEVER...IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

IF ANYTHING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT
WAS 6 HOURS AGO.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. 
AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG...BUT
DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE RESULTING
SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO
STRENGTHEN IT.  A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING
KYLE FROM THE EAST...WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE
WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR.  AFTER
THAT TIME...KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER
LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.
 
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 27.6N  68.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 29.5N  69.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 32.6N  69.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 36.5N  69.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 40.3N  67.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 47.5N  64.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 52.0N  62.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN
992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD
WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS
KYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED TO 14 KNOTS. KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA
SCOTIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE
MORE ON GUARD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 29.4N  68.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 31.5N  69.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.8N  69.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 38.5N  68.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  66.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 49.0N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270856
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
 
AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND
STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS
OF 70 KT AT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 55 KT SURFACE WINDS. SFMR WINDS
IN THAT SAME AREA ALSO ONLY SUPPORT ABOUT 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OCCURRED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
HAVE BEEN MISSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLIGHT LEG. THE HIGHER
LATITUDE AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST ALSO SUPPORTS
KEEPING THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE STANDARD
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR A 996 MB PRESSURE WOULD SUPPORT.
 
KYLE HAS MADE A SHORT TERM JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A 9-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION YIELDS 345/14...
AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS WEDGED
BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER BUT
WEAKENING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COMBINED
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KYLE NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE VARIOUS SURFACE TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BEING STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF
RECURVATURE OF KYLE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS DELAYED BY JUST 6 HOURS ...THEN KYLE WOULD
PASS CLOSER TO CAPE COD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN CONTRAST TO
WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS
WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS A RESULT...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED. ONE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KYLE LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD RESUME AND
KYLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ICON...SHIPS...AND THE
GFDL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 30.5N  69.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 33.0N  69.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 36.8N  69.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 41.0N  68.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 44.9N  66.7W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 50.5N  64.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 271506
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE
AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.

KYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
THE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
NORTHWARD JOG.  THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS
345/13.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES.  THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE
CENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE...OR WHETHER IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  WHILE THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE
CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT
48 HR.  THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

KYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS
ALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD
WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER...IT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS.  KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.

THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 32.1N  69.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 34.7N  69.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 38.8N  68.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 43.0N  67.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 46.7N  66.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 51.0N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 272057
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG
WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR.  WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT...THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
COVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT
HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WITH THE CENTER
REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB.  THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD
MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.

KYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...
AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND
CALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW
BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT
SHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL
FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR
AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME.
 
KYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD
ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS 
FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR
AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL.  AFTER
LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...WITH THE
CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 34.3N  69.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 37.2N  69.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 41.3N  68.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 45.3N  66.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 48.3N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 51.5N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 280251
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
 
KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST.  THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 36.2N  69.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 43.7N  67.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  65.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 49.2N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.0N  63.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 280844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
 
KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY
FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80
KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD
TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER
DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10
KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996
MB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD
BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT
KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR
MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH
COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG
40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY
LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND
PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 38.4N  69.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  68.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 45.2N  66.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  64.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  64.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 50.8N  63.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 281451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS
TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM.  THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN
PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z. 
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF
KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  

LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.

IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 40.4N  67.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 43.3N  66.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 46.3N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 48.5N  63.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 50.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 51.5N  63.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO. 
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290235
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE...AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  CONSEQUENTLY...KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23...WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
BYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE
MORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING...AND AS A RESULT I'VE PLACED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 44.8N  65.9W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 49.5N  63.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 50.6N  63.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 51.5N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD
CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL
A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH
AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE
CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS
FIRST ADVISORY.  SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7.  HOWEVER THE
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF
THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.  THROUGH
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.5N  68.3W    40 KT
12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N  68.3W    45 KT
24HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  68.7W    55 KT
36HR VT     27/0600Z 31.0N  69.0W    60 KT
48HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W    65 KT
72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    65 KT
96HR VT     29/1800Z 50.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1800Z 53.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS




WTNT41 KNHC 260257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE
EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF
994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT.  THERE WERE ALSO A
FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON
BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO
HIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN
WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS
NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM...HWRF...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE
GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE
KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE
PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.  IN
ADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.8N  68.0W    45 KT
12HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  68.1W    50 KT
24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  68.7W    60 KT
36HR VT     27/1200Z 32.4N  68.9W    65 KT
48HR VT     28/0000Z 36.3N  68.3W    70 KT
72HR VT     29/0000Z 44.5N  65.5W    60 KT...INLAND...NOVA SCOTIA
96HR VT     30/0000Z 50.0N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BERG




WTNT41 KNHC 260903
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB SLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 63 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A
47-KT SURFACE WIND. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 50 AND 53 KT
WERE MEASURED BENEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO A BLEND
OF THESE VALUES YIELDS AN AVERAGE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 50
KT. THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 997 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE THAT WAS MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE.

RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THE MOTION IS NOW
350/10 KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KYLE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH EVENTUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK
IS NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THAT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE POINT OF RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. 00Z
UPPER-AIR HEIGHT DATA FROM BERMUDA WAS IN ERROR TO DUE A BAD
BASELINE...BUT THE 00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FILTERED OUT THIS
ERRONEOUS MASS FIELD DATA. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA WAS GOOD...AND
THE BACKING WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INDICATES THAT
RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. ALSO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND A MUCH LARGER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AZORES.
SINCE OMEGA BLOCKS ARE GENERALLY STABLE PATTERNS...THE MODELS MAY
BE BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA TOO QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PREMATURE RECURVATURE BY
THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS. SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE U.S. CAPE COD AREA
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL
RUNS. ONLY THE UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP KYLE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. ONCE KYLE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THE
VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE
REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FAST
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE HWRF MODEL.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0900Z 25.6N  68.3W    50 KT
12HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  68.8W    55 KT
24HR VT     27/0600Z 30.5N  69.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.0N  69.8W    65 KT
48HR VT     28/0600Z 38.5N  69.0W    70 KT
72HR VT     29/0600Z 45.7N  66.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     30/0600Z 51.0N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 261451
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

KYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHILE
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT.  BASED ON
THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE
IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER
THAT...KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT
APPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE
NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE
AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
A STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY
DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.  AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE
RESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE
TRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT.  WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE
STRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOST GUIDANCE...BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER 48
HR...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY
COLD WATER.  WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN...IT MAY STILL BE OF
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE
MARITIMES.  AFTER LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 26.4N  68.8W    50 KT
12HR VT     27/0000Z 28.6N  69.4W    55 KT
24HR VT     27/1200Z 31.7N  69.9W    60 KT
36HR VT     28/0000Z 35.5N  69.8W    65 KT
48HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.7W    70 KT
72HR VT     29/1200Z 46.5N  66.0W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     30/1200Z 52.0N  62.0W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT41 KNHC 262100
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003
MB...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB...WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING...KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO
THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS
345/11...BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH.  KYLE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE
NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY.
BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  HOWEVER...IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

IF ANYTHING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT
WAS 6 HOURS AGO.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG...BUT
DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE RESULTING
SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO
STRENGTHEN IT.  A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING
KYLE FROM THE EAST...WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE
WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR.  AFTER
THAT TIME...KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER
LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/2100Z 27.6N  68.7W    50 KT
12HR VT     27/0600Z 29.5N  69.3W    55 KT
24HR VT     27/1800Z 32.6N  69.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     28/0600Z 36.5N  69.0W    65 KT
48HR VT     28/1800Z 40.3N  67.8W    65 KT
72HR VT     29/1800Z 47.5N  64.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     30/1800Z 52.0N  62.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT41 KNHC 270257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN
992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD
WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS
KYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED TO 14 KNOTS. KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA
SCOTIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE
MORE ON GUARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0300Z 29.4N  68.8W    60 KT
12HR VT     27/1200Z 31.5N  69.0W    65 KT
24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.8N  69.0W    65 KT
36HR VT     28/1200Z 38.5N  68.0W    65 KT
48HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  66.7W    60 KT
72HR VT     30/0000Z 49.0N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 270856
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND
STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS
OF 70 KT AT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 55 KT SURFACE WINDS. SFMR WINDS
IN THAT SAME AREA ALSO ONLY SUPPORT ABOUT 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OCCURRED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
HAVE BEEN MISSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLIGHT LEG. THE HIGHER
LATITUDE AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST ALSO SUPPORTS
KEEPING THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE STANDARD
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR A 996 MB PRESSURE WOULD SUPPORT.

KYLE HAS MADE A SHORT TERM JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A 9-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION YIELDS 345/14...
AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS WEDGED
BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER BUT
WEAKENING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COMBINED
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KYLE NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE VARIOUS SURFACE TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BEING STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF
RECURVATURE OF KYLE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS DELAYED BY JUST 6 HOURS ...THEN KYLE WOULD
PASS CLOSER TO CAPE COD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN CONTRAST TO
WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS
WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS A RESULT...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED. ONE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KYLE LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD RESUME AND
KYLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ICON...SHIPS...AND THE
GFDL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0900Z 30.5N  69.4W    60 KT
12HR VT     27/1800Z 33.0N  69.7W    65 KT
24HR VT     28/0600Z 36.8N  69.4W    70 KT
36HR VT     28/1800Z 41.0N  68.4W    70 KT
48HR VT     29/0600Z 44.9N  66.7W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     30/0600Z 50.5N  64.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 271506
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE
AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.

KYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
THE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
NORTHWARD JOG.  THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS
345/13.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES.  THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE
CENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE...OR WHETHER IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  WHILE THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE
CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT
48 HR.  THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

KYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS
ALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD
WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER...IT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS.  KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.

THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/1500Z 32.1N  69.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     28/0000Z 34.7N  69.8W    65 KT
24HR VT     28/1200Z 38.8N  68.9W    70 KT
36HR VT     29/0000Z 43.0N  67.5W    65 KT
48HR VT     29/1200Z 46.7N  66.0W    45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     30/1200Z 51.0N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT41 KNHC 272057
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG
WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR.  WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT...THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
COVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT
HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WITH THE CENTER
REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB.  THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD
MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.

KYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...
AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND
CALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW
BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT
SHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL
FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR
AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME.

KYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD
ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS
FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR
AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL.  AFTER
LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...WITH THE
CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.

THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/2100Z 34.3N  69.7W    65 KT
12HR VT     28/0600Z 37.2N  69.5W    70 KT
24HR VT     28/1800Z 41.3N  68.2W    70 KT
36HR VT     29/0600Z 45.3N  66.6W    60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     29/1800Z 48.3N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     30/1800Z 51.5N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT41 KNHC 280251
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST.  THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0300Z 36.2N  69.5W    65 KT
12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.8W    65 KT
24HR VT     29/0000Z 43.7N  67.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  65.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/0000Z 49.2N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.0N  63.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




WTNT41 KNHC 280844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY
FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80
KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD
TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER
DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10
KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996
MB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD
BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT
KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR
MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH
COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG
40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY
LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND
PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0900Z 38.4N  69.1W    65 KT
12HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  68.2W    60 KT
24HR VT     29/0600Z 45.2N  66.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  64.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  64.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     01/0600Z 50.8N  63.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 281451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS
TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM.  THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN
PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z.
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF
KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.

IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1500Z 40.4N  67.7W    70 KT
12HR VT     29/0000Z 43.3N  66.3W    60 KT
24HR VT     29/1200Z 46.3N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/0000Z 48.5N  63.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     30/1200Z 50.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/1200Z 51.5N  63.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE




WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT
12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT41 KNHC 290235
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE...AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  CONSEQUENTLY...KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23...WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
BYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE
MORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING...AND AS A RESULT I'VE PLACED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 44.8N  65.9W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     30/0000Z 49.5N  63.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/1200Z 50.6N  63.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     01/0000Z 51.5N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




