WTNT45 KNHC 141505
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE
INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT
SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST
TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR
GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER
THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2
AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.0N  69.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N  67.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.3N  65.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N  60.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 142059
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT...RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB...BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE...
THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR...THE FLIGHT CREW
REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS
OMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD
SPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS RACE
OMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION... IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL... AND HWRF MODELS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT...
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 14.0N  68.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.6N  68.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  66.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  64.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N  62.1W    85 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N  58.4W    80 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 31.1N  55.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  49.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 150251
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS
BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES
ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA
OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.
IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN.  IT SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A
60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5.  THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  THE HWRF AND
GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL
SPREAD IS NOT LARGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.3N  68.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  67.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  65.4W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.9N  61.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  58.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  54.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  44.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 150842
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
NO APPRECIABLE STRENGTHENING OF OMAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  AN
ELLIPTICAL AND PARTIALLY OPEN EYE WAS OBSERVED BUT THE INNER CORE
IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN AND
MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 65
KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT OMAR CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...AS WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS OMAR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME.   

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 050/6.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE ALONG WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
CREATING A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS A LITTLE AROUND DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT AHEAD OF OMAR.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER. 
THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION COULD REQUIRE
CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THAT
ISLAND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.6N  67.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N  66.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  64.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.8N  62.2W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.8N  60.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  51.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 43.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 151451
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

ON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z
SYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A
RANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND
RADAR SIGNATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS
BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY
EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR
OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER
DEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
PRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE
THAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18
HOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION
COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THAT ISLAND.  ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.2N  67.2W    75 KT
12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  65.9W    80 KT
24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.9W    90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  61.8W    90 KT
48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N  60.2W    85 KT
72HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  56.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  48.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 45.0N  32.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT45 KNHC 152044
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

TWO RECENT PASSES THROUGH OMAR'S EYE INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 4 MB...DOWN TO 973 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 89 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT AN
80-KT SURFACE WIND...DESPITE THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE MEASURED
HAVING ONLY BEEN 74 KT. HOWEVER...THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND THE
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN PLAYING A GAME OF CAT-AND-MOUSE...AND I DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 80 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE-WIND
RELATIONSHIP FOR 973 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 85 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/013. AFTER AN EARLIER JOG TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THAT OMAR HAS RESUMED ITS BASE COURSE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY AS ALL OF THE TRACK
MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
12-18 HOURS HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS
IT GETS DRAWN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY 3. DURING DAYS 4-5...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MUCH COOLER
WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS HAD A NOTICEABLE FAST FORWARD
SPEED BIAS.

STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE EYEWALL
AND RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL DISTINCT
MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE INNER PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS
FAVORABLE SMALL-SCALE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH MEANS THAT OMAR HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GFDL MODEL WAS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH OMAR ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN AND
BRINGS THE HURRICANE UP TO 109 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THAT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF A
RAPIDLY SHRINKING CDO FEATURE...PLUS THE INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SINCE OMAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
29C SSTS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE
...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.  ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE REMINDED THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE
CATEGORY HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 15.9N  66.1W    80 KT
12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W    85 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.4N  62.9W    90 KT
36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.2N  60.9W    90 KT
48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.1N  59.2W    85 KT
72HR VT     18/1800Z 31.7N  54.8W    75 KT
96HR VT     19/1800Z 39.0N  44.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000

WTNT45 KNHC 160313
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT...AND
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB.  ON THIS
BASIS...OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION...SHOWING
INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL.

OMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 050/17.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
FORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD.  OMAR IS
EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.  WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP
OMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH
ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES.  THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH SOME
SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.  THIS
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24
HOURS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...
OMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS.  IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0300Z 17.4N  64.5W   100 KT
12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.4N  63.1W   105 KT
24HR VT     17/0000Z 22.2N  61.2W   100 KT
36HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N  59.3W    90 KT
48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.6N  57.5W    80 KT
72HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  53.0W    65 KT
96HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  41.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/0000Z 47.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT45 KNHC 160849
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE.  OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO
INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE
AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS
AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS
FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND
A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.1N  63.2W   110 KT
12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.7N  61.0W   110 KT
24HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N  58.5W   100 KT
36HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N  55.5W    90 KT
48HR VT     18/0600Z 33.5N  52.0W    80 KT
72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.0N  45.0W    65 KT
96HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/0600Z 42.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT45 KNHC 161513
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

IT IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO ME AT HOW QUICKLY A HURRICANE CAN SPIN UP
AND JUST AS QUICKLY FALL APART.  OMAR REACHED NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF
CATEGORY 4 EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 06Z AND NOW WE HAVE AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOWING UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST A
FEW HOURS LATER.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES WERE
SUGGESTING AROUND 90-100 KT AT 12Z.  BUT GIVEN THE RAPID
DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED...WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 75 KT.

DESPITE VERY WARM WATERS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...HAS PRODUCED THE WEAKENING IN OMAR AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A DECREASE IN ITS INTENSITY.  BECAUSE THE TREND
OF OMAR'S INTENSITY WAS NOT CORRECTLY ANALYZED AT SYNOPTIC
TIME...THE STATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...ARE PROVIDING
VALUES THAT ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH.  THE FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
HWRF MODEL WHICH DID VERY WELL IN ANTICIPATING THIS MORNING'S RAPID
WEAKENING OF OMAR.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AROUND DAY
4...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL
TAKE PLACE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THE GLOBAL MODELS' CONSENSUS.

THE NOW EASY-TO-SEE CENTER DID FORCE US TO MAKE A LAST SECOND
RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION AS WELL AS THE SHORT TERM TRACK
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION THAN AT FIRST
ESTIMATED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HR...BUT THEN SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND
HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SLOWER PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1500Z 20.2N  61.3W    75 KT
12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  59.5W    70 KT
24HR VT     17/1200Z 28.0N  56.9W    65 KT
36HR VT     18/0000Z 31.3N  54.3W    60 KT
48HR VT     18/1200Z 33.4N  51.9W    55 KT
72HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  45.0W    55 KT
96HR VT     20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/1200Z 40.0N  23.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART




WTNT45 KNHC 162059
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008
 
OMAR'S CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WHILE THE
PRINCIPAL BAND TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH STILL CONTAINS VIGOROUS
DEEP CONVECTION.  CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ARE STILL
FORCING TAFB AND SAB TO INDICATE ABOUT A 90 KT HURRICANE. 
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL
FEATURES...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
30 DEGREES AT 23 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO
ITS NORTH AND MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR ALONG A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS...THE VARIOUS
MODELS SPLIT INTO TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
RE-INTENSIFICATION AND EXPANSION IN SIZE NEAR THE AZORES. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...GFS...AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BE MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...AND
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OFF OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THIS ADVISORY IS THE
LATTER SCENARIO...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WEST OF THE
CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
DESPITE BEING OVER VERY WARM WATER...THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE INNER CORE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OMAR.  HOWEVER...THE RAPID MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST MAY SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
THE SHEAR.  THE FAST FORWARD MOTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE
WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE VORTEX.  THUS ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST MORE RAPID WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THOUGH THESE TECHNIQUES ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTING THE
LARGE NEGATIVE PERSISTENCE FACTOR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 22.1N  59.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N  57.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 28.2N  55.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.1N  53.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 32.2N  50.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 36.0N  46.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 38.0N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 170239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

OMAR HAS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATES THAT OMAR HAS LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE DUE TO
SHEAR...BUT RETAINS A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM CORE.  THAT...COMBINED
WITH NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARBY...MEANS THAT IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE
APPEARANCE.  A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING
65 KT WIND VECTOR AND SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS.  BASED ON THIS...OMAR
IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE UP TO 00Z...BUT HAS NOW LIKELY
WEAKENED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...040/22.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK.  OMAR IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OMAR TO SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 72
HR.  THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
THE TOP OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST IT
TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THESE
SCENARIOS WILL BE CORRECT.  THUS...THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR AN
EASTWARD MOTION AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OMAR WILL BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE CALLED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW THAT OMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ABOUT 40 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE
SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR
FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT OMAR WILL DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION TO
KEEP IF FROM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT FROM WEAKENING.  THUS...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48 HR...OMAR WILL CROSS THE 26C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR...
AND BEGIN MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72-96 HR...AND KEEPS OMAR AT
35 KT DURING THIS TIME.  IF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECASTS VERIFY...
OMAR COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 23.8N  58.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 26.4N  56.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 29.3N  54.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 31.3N  51.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 33.3N  49.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 37.0N  43.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 38.0N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/0000Z 38.0N  28.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 170836
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO WIND SHEAR. ON THE
CONTRARY... DATA FROM A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED
ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND DATA FROM ASCAT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS HEADING
TOWARD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SAME
WEAKENING RATE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.  OMAR SHOULD BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR LESS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND OMAR
IS STILL HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS.
OMAR SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN FORCING OMAR TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS WEAKENING
RESULTING IN LIGHTER STEERING CURRENTS.  BASICALLY....ALL TRACK
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODEL
THE SPREAD INCREASES BUT THEY ALL BRING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL
EASTWARD TRACK AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.        

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 26.0N  56.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 28.7N  54.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 31.0N  52.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.0N  50.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  48.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 38.5N  42.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/0600Z 40.0N  28.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 171505
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008
 
OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY
CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC...THOUGH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT
ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60
KT...ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE.
 
OMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND...LIKELY CAUSING
THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH
MAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS
OF THESE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...AND THE FASTER
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING
COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
CURRENTLY...OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF...BUT FASTER THAN...
THE SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE
OTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE.  ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR
IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
LOW TROPOSPHERE.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER
...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL
MODELS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 28.9N  55.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 31.4N  53.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 33.4N  51.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.1N  49.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 36.6N  47.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 39.0N  42.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  36.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008
 
OMAR HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...ALBEIT EMBEDDED IN WEAK
CONVECTION...IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT SUPPORTS MAKING OMAR A
HURRICANE AGAIN. THE 1601Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT DEPICTED A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT
OMAR WAS LIKELY A HURRICANE AT 12Z AS WELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 030/25. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS STARTED
TO WEAKEN...MAKING THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION MORE SHALLOW...THE
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
CORRESPONDING STEERING FLOW ALSO WEAKENS. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER OMAR...AND THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OMAR IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE EASTWARD
WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY-MONDAY. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ABSORB OMAR IN 96 TO
120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN FORWARD SPEED
TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO A PERCEIVED SHARP SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS AND TURN BY
THE NOGAPS MODEL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
THE 65-KT INTENSITY RECENTLY ACHIEVED BY OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
CYCLONE...ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OMAR...A RE-FIRING OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...THE INTENSITY IS NOT BEING FORECAST TO DECREASE TOO
QUICKLY SIMPLY BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IN
THE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS BENEATH THE
CYCLONE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND THE HWRF DYNAMICAL MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 31.2N  53.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 32.9N  52.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 34.9N  49.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  47.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  44.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 39.5N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 39.5N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 180234
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 20Z SHOWS
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A DEEP-LAYER WARM CORE...WHICH SSM/I IMAGERY
SHOWS IS SURROUNDED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY/COOL AIR.  A QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM
THE EARLIER OVERPASS...WITH NO RELIABLE-LOOKING VECTORS SHOWING
WINDS OF MORE THAN 45 TO 50 KT.  AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 20Z
WERE 55 TO 60 KT...WHILE REGULAR SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
THESE ESTIMATES...AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.  THE INITIAL
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

OMAR HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/14.  IN THE SHORT TERM...OMAR SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH.  THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.  AFTER 48 HR...THE GFS...
ECMWF...UKMET..AND HWRF SHOW OMAR BEING ABSORBED INTO A BAROCLINIC
LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS AFTER OMAR
TURNS MORE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.  THE NOGAPS...THE
BAMD...THE BAMM...AND THE LBAR FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF
SOLUTION...CALLING FOR OMAR TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HR. 
HOWEVER...OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT OF THOSE
MODELS.
 
OMAR IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C...AND
IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AFTER 24 HR.  WHILE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OMAR SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR
AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  IF THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SCENARIO VERIFIES...OMAR WILL BE ABSORBED BY
THE WARM FRONT OF THE ONCOMING BAROCLINIC LOW...WITH THE FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWING LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 48-96 HR PORTION OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 31.5N  52.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 33.3N  51.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 35.1N  48.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 36.7N  46.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 38.3N  43.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  39.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 42.0N  36.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 180833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008
 
CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND I USE THAT TERM QUITE LOOSELY IN THIS
CASE...HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AND INNER-CORE CLOUD TOPS
ARE BARELY -20C...WITH MOST TOPS WARMER THAN -10C. ONE COULD
CERTAINLY ARGUE THAT OMAR MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...I DON'T LIKE DROPPING SYSTEMS AT NIGHT OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN JUST IN CASE A BRIEF FLARE UP OF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS BASED THE WELL-DEFINED
EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OMAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2
DAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AHEAD OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE U.S.EAST COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORCE OMAR ON A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK. BY 72 HOURS...OMAR IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BE PULLED SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING LARGER EXTRATROPICAL TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY BE
ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

OMAR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND BENEATH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING APPEARS
LIKELY. IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEGENERATION TREND CONTINUES...
THEN OMAR COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 32.9N  51.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  49.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 36.1N  47.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 37.6N  44.6W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 38.7N  42.1W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 40.3N  38.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 43.0N  35.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 181433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008
 
OMAR HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A QUIKSCAT AND AN ASCAT PASS
OVER THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OMAR HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...IT DOES NOT MEET THE CRITERIA
FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW .
 
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. NOW THAT
OMAR IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OMAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 33.4N  50.7W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 34.7N  48.9W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 36.5N  46.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 37.5N  43.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 39.0N  38.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 41.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

