WTNT42 KNHC 260243
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS
FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS
COALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  AROUND 2200
UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH
PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE
AROUND 1001 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY COOLED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND
TAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5.  GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT
THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...
THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08...THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING.  A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY
LEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN
ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN
THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION...WITH THE CENTER LIKELY
EMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS
ABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MARGINALLY WARM WATERS
AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS
INTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM.  ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 32.5N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 31.4N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 30.5N  79.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 30.2N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL
 72H  29/0000Z 30.5N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0000Z 31.2N  82.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/0000Z 32.5N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 260850
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS
STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR
THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
OVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY
IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO
BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS
QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT
MOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND
ACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226
UTC ASCAT PASS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 31.8N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 31.0N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 30.6N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 30.6N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/0600Z 31.0N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/0600Z 34.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 261445
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
BERYL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL. 

BERYL HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE
THAN EARLIER...NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BERYL MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BERYL TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COASTLINE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL THE MODELS BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT...HOWEVER...AND DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE CYCLONE GETS
BEFORE IT RECURVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
HWRF BRING BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE IT REVERSES
ITS COURSE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY
NEAR THE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF BERYL IN THE MODELS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THEN VERY NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL
EVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 31.6N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 31.1N  77.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 30.5N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 30.4N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 30.5N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1200Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1200Z 32.5N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 262055
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER OF BERYL...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS OTHERWISE CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST BEGUN ITS INVESTIGATION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND WILL SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS
INTENSITY.
 
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/4. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BERYL INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE BERYL TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN SHARPLY RECURVE. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT DISAGREE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE
GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS TAKE BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
INLAND BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH THE LANDFALL...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WEST OF IT THEREAFTER.
 
ALTHOUGH BERYL LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...DRY AIR AND THE OVERALL BROAD STRUCTURE OF ITS WIND FIELD
SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BERYL WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A
STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 31.5N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 30.9N  77.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 30.4N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 30.4N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/1800Z 30.9N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 31.5N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 34.0N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/1800Z 38.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 270241
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE STORM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF
40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  STRUCTURALLY...THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS TRANSIENT BANDS OF
CONVECTION FORM NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A
LITTLE FASTER.  BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS
NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 H...AND
THEN WEAKEN IT AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN
WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BETWEEN 24-36 H.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL STALL AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
THE EASTERNMOST ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
48 H...BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN
DEFERENCE TO THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF.  AFTER RECURVATURE...THE
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR BERYL IS BECOMING MORE MOIST...AND THE
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. 
THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO THE TRANSITION OF BERYL INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PROCESS. 
BERYL SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
LAND.  AFTER RECURVATURE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE NEW FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
MAINLY ON THE LGEM MODEL.

THE ANALYZED AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 30.8N  77.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 30.4N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 30.2N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL
 36H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/0000Z 30.7N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0000Z 35.0N  75.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  01/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 30.5N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 30.4N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  81.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/1800Z 30.8N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  01/0600Z 40.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
 

WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS.  BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
 
THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09.  BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF.  AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 30.1N  79.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 30.2N  80.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL
 24H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z 30.8N  82.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1200Z 31.4N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  31/1200Z 37.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 41.0N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 272044
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS
ALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5
FROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY.
 
BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...
AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 30.0N  80.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 30.0N  81.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1800Z 30.2N  82.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0600Z 30.6N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1800Z 31.6N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1800Z 33.8N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  31/1800Z 37.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 280247
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
 
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A
RAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR
THE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER
RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE
MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS
REGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE STRONG DOPPLER WIND SPEED ESTIMATES WINDS
HAVE DECREASED WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT
3.5. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT BERYL IS NO LONGER
INTENSIFYING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LEAVING NO TIME FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN
FACT...SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
DSHIPS MODEL WHILE BERYL IS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN BERYL EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CARRY BERYL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 30.2N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0000Z 30.5N  82.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 31.2N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0000Z 34.5N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0000Z 37.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0000Z 40.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 280846
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED
WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.
 
BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 30.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/1800Z 30.6N  82.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1800Z 31.9N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z 32.8N  79.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0600Z 35.7N  73.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0600Z 38.5N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z 43.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
 

WTNT42 KNHC 281448
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
COULD STILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MOVING OVER LAND. ONCE OVER
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LATTER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5
KNOTS. BERYL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHLY PACKED THIS
MORNING.
 
AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL IS VERY
HEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 30.5N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 31.0N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 31.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0000Z 32.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1200Z 33.5N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1200Z 40.0N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1200Z 44.5N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT42 KNHC 282031
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT
IS MOVING OVER LAND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT
MUCH...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 48 HOURS. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BERYL WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN 96 HOURS AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
 
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
325 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED ESTABLISHMENT OF
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 30.8N  83.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 31.2N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 32.1N  82.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 33.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 34.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 37.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1800Z 38.5N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 290258
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
WHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TO
WELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTS
AS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS.
 
BERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3.  AS A VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
AS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT IS
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THERE
IS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THE
COOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYL
HAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLEND
OF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
BERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 30.8N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1200Z 31.3N  83.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0000Z 32.1N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1200Z 33.2N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/0000Z 34.6N  76.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/0000Z 37.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0000Z 40.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 290846
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
BERYL IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION IN A FEW BANDS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SO IT STILL QUALIFIES AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR
PRESENTATION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEGRADED.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
AS WELL AS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION HAS ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/2. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KT...ARE OVER WATER
AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE BERYL NORTHEASTWARD VERY SHORTLY...LIKELY TAKING
THE CENTER BACK OVER WATER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  FOR AN
ACCELERATING SYSTEM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE...WITH MORE
WEIGHT PLACED ON THE SLOWER ECMWF.
 
BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.

A FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE IS SHOWN
OVERTAKING BERYL IN ABOUT 66 HOURS IN THE GFS...AND IN ABOUT 84
HOURS IN THE ECMWF.  BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED COOLER
WATERS BELOW THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
CALLED FOR ON DAY THREE...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 30.9N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 31.5N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0600Z 32.4N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 33.7N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  31/0600Z 35.5N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 38.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 291431
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
24 AND 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER...AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES.
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 31.5N  82.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 32.2N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1200Z 33.3N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/0000Z 34.7N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  31/1200Z 36.2N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 40.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 292039
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
CENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY
THAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48
HOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055
DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 31.8N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0600Z 32.8N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT42 KNHC 300239
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE  
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41008 AND SHIP KCDK.
 
AS EXPECTED...THE DEPRESSION IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS BERYL PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...
THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER LOW MOVING MORE EASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND
IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL BY CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS FOR BERYL TO BECOME THE PRIMARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
AFTER BERYL EXITS THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BERYL WILL
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 32.2N  81.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  31/0000Z 34.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 36.5N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 37.7N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/0000Z 40.0N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 300839
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
 
BERYL HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 H.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001
MB...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT IN A BAND
OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DESPITE THE
INTENSIFICATION...THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE TO A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE CENTER.
 
DURING THE NEXT 24 H...BERYL WILL PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE PRODUCES UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  BY 36-
48 H...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW WILL BERYL WILL EVOLVE AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CANADIAN MERGES THE SYSTEM WITH A
COLD FRONT IN 72 H...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST BERYL TO
BECOME THE FOCUS OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BY MERGER WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL WAVE.  THE
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW BERYL AND THE FRONTAL WAVE REMAINING SPEARATE
THROUGH 120 H.  A 96 H FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/11.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 36 H...WITH THE CENTER MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE REACHING THE OPEN
ATLANTIC.  THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL
LOCATION AND MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING A
POSITION EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY 96-120 H...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM 12-24 H...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 33.1N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 38.6N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/0600Z 39.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0600Z 41.0N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT42 KNHC 301431
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BERYL IS
LOSING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND WELL
REMOVED AND EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AS NORMALLY OCCURS DURING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OVER WATER
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH INCREASING SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
THAT BERYL WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER
WATER.
 
BERYL HAS ACCELERATED AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ABOUT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED. SINCE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED...THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 34.2N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 35.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  31/1200Z 37.0N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  01/0000Z 38.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1200Z 39.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1200Z 38.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

