WTNT43 KNHC 202038
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED NORTH OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM
CINDY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A 35-KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF
41 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/22.  CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CINDY WILL PASS OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 24-26C FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATER AND
INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  CINDY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY 96 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 35.2N  53.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 37.1N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 39.9N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 42.4N  42.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  22/1800Z 45.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z 52.5N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 210258
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011
 
CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE
REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
 
CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21.  THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL
CONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS
LIFE.  THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS.  THIS
TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS
OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER.  THE GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT
TIME.
 
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY
44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL-
CALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 36.3N  51.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 38.5N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 41.3N  44.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 44.0N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0000Z 46.8N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT43 KNHC 210859
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER 
IN ABOUT 124 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT43 KNHC 210923
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011

CORRECTED TIME IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
 
CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER 
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT43 KNHC 211441
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CINDY HAS SEVERAL RAGGED CONVECTIVE
BANDS AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND REMAIN 35 KT FROM
SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM DURING
THE LAST 24 HR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/25.  CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST. 
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS
WELL.

CINDY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM AND SHOULD
SOON ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS
AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CALLING FOR CINDY TO DISSIPATE BY THE 72 HR POINT.  ONE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IS TO DELAY THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 12 HR BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 40.3N  47.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 42.7N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 45.9N  38.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 49.8N  32.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1200Z 52.0N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24.  CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 42.3N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 44.5N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 47.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 51.6N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 55.0N  22.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 220258
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
CINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING
TO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED
BASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE
OF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE
COLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT
23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED
PREVIOUSLY.
  
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A
CIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 43.5N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 45.9N  39.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 49.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1200Z 53.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 

WTNT43 KNHC 220846
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011
 
CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM
SAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS. 

CINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

CINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF
IT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
 
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 44.5N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 46.7N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 50.0N  29.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 52.7N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT43 KNHC 221435
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011
 
CINDY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD PATTERN CHARACTERISTIC OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND
35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/23.  ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CINDY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT
25-30 KT UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS
THAT CINDY WILL NOT MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MAKE AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT COOL TO LESS THAN 15C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
 
THE WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED
ON JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 45.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 47.6N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 50.6N  25.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 53.2N  17.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT43 KNHC 222045
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE NOW
HAVING A NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON CINDY.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN ADDITION...THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE CIRCULATION ARE BECOMING STRATIFORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON DECREASING AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  CINDY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOUR...AND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/25...AND A RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 46.9N  34.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 49.5N  28.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 53.5N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

