WTNT41 KNHC 260847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT. 
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED.  BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7.  FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S.  THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX.  THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST.  THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.  THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.  IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER. 
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 16.9N  84.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.4N  86.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.4N  88.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.4N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N  90.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N  92.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N  94.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  95.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 261446
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON  3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE
STRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS
THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE
COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE
NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.3N  86.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  87.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 22.0N  92.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 24.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 261446
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY
ORGANIZED INNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON  3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE
STRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS
THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE
COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE
NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.3N  86.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  87.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 22.0N  92.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 24.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 262033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED ALEX AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A
LITTLE STRONGER...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THERE WERE
SEVERAL SFMR VALUES AROUND 55 KNOTS...AND THIS IS THE VALUE USED
FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST T-NUMBERS WHICH REACHED 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR ALEX TO INTENSIFY MUCH MORE SINCE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. ALEX IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT ONCE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN. ALEX HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE
MEXICAN COAST IN AROUND 96 HOURS.
 
THE CENTER WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EARLIER TODAY BUT NOW THAT
THE STORM IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
PROVIDED A GOOD FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS
ESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
TO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT.  THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING
THE RELIABLE ECMWF.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 17.3N  87.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.7N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N  92.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  93.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N  95.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270251
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALEX MOVED INLAND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF BELIZE CITY...WHERE RECENT OBSERVATIONS SERVE AS THE BASIS
FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...A
RECENT BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVED INLAND. GIVEN
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 50 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
ALEX MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 17.7N  88.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  89.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.6N  91.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.4N  92.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  93.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N  96.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 23.0N  99.0W    55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 101.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
 
RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 18.3N  89.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.1N  90.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.2N  91.9W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.9N  92.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N  93.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 22.6N  95.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 23.2N  97.4W    85 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N  99.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 271440
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  BASED ON THESE TRENDS...AND A LACK OF ANY OBSERVATIONS
OF STRONGER WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  AFTER ALEX
EMERGES INTO THE GULF...WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL OFFER THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING. GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS WELL DEFINED...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
ALEX TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY TONIGHT...AND FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE
ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL BEYOND THAT TIME. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ALEX SPENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BE THE PIVOTAL FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.
 
WHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A
LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF ALEX. THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY TAKING ALEX MORE POLEWARD. THE REMAINING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX WILL RESULT IN A MORE
WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND THE HWRF ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS GROUP OF MODELS...BUT DO
NOT SHOW A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT
TIME IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ALL OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX OFFERS A
REMINDER TO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE 200 TO 300 MILES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 18.7N  90.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.6N  91.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.4N  92.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.8N  94.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 23.0N  96.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES.  NEAR THE
CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND.  THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ
RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8.  THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. 
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO.  OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
 
WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE
GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 19.2N  90.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.9N  91.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.6N  92.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N  93.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 22.3N  94.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 23.2N  96.3W    80 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 24.0N  98.5W    55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 280241
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ALEX THIS
EVENING AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 41 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION IS REFORMING...
BANDING FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST.  BASED
UPON THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...ALEX IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
 
ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.
 
NOW THAT THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ALEX MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BOTH OF
THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
UNTIL LANDFALL.  PERHAPS THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS...
IT IS STILL PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW ALEX
STRENGTHENING TO MORE THAN A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.  IN ANY EVENT...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE SKILL OF 2 TO 3-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS IS VERY
LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 19.4N  91.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.1N  92.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  92.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 21.9N  93.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 22.6N  94.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 23.5N  96.7W    85 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 24.3N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 280851
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -84C HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
TO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO
51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO
MEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON
ITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE
IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...
CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE
MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL
SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.

THE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING
GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 19.7N  91.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.3N  91.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 21.4N  92.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 22.4N  93.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 23.3N  94.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 24.6N  97.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 25.6N  99.2W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 101.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 281445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALEX HAS BECOME A LITTLE DISTORTED
THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 66 KT...SFMR VALUES OF 51 KT...AND A DECREASE IN PRESSURE
TO 989 MB. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD
BACK IN SLIGHTLY AND STEER ALEX MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD
HELP DETERMINE WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR MAKES MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD. THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALEX...ALTHOUGH THIS
HAS NOT PREVENTED THE STORM FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING.  THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO ABATE BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD THEN ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 20.3N  91.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.1N  92.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.3N  92.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N  94.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 24.3N  95.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 25.5N  97.7W    80 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  99.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 282037
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT THE INTENSITY OF ALEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 990 MB...UP JUST A BIT FROM
THIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ALEX IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND
ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRY AIR
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE LIKELY BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX TODAY. ALSO...SINCE ALEX HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE
SHALLOW SHELF WATERS WEST OF THE YUCATAN ALL DAY...SOME UPWELLING
OF COOL WATER COULD BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
 
ONCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND ALEX MOVES TOWARD A
WARM EDDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE THE STRONGEST OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS. ALSO...ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST...BUT NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THIS
TIME.
 
ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST
LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
330 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MOVES EAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALEX. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
SOUTHWARD AND FASTER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BUT NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 20.5N  91.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N  92.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 22.9N  93.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 23.8N  95.1W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  96.4W    80 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 25.5N  99.5W    60 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE
THAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 68 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED WINDS WERE 53 KT. 
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 985 MB...A RATHER LOW VALUE FOR A TROPICAL STORM. 
BASED ON THE WIND MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
CENTER FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
STORM HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4.  THIS MOTION IS BELIEVED TO
BE TEMPORARY BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT. 
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE
NORTH DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL.  ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AVERAGE
TRACK FORECAST ERROR IN THE 48- TO 72-HOUR TIME FRAME IS 100-150
NAUTICAL MILES.
 
THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING ALEX HAS ABATED AND THE SHIPS
MODEL DIAGNOSES A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR...TO BELOW 10 KT IN 24
HOURS.  AS ALEX MOVES AWAY FROM THE SHELF WATERS NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN...IT SHOULD PASS OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTED TRACK IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM EDDY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF.  IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS STILL DO NOT FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS WE SPEAK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE STATISTICAL LGEM GUIDANCE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
GIVEN THE LATEST 36-HR FORECAST POINT AND THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS TIME TO UPGRADE
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 21.0N  91.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 22.2N  92.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 23.6N  93.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  95.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.2N  96.9W    80 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 25.7N  99.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 290855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
 
A 0525Z AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT FOUND TWO PEAK 925 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT LOCATED ABOUT 20 AND 45 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS ALONG THAT LEG WERE
AROUND 57 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB. SINCE THAT
RECON FLIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SMALL DEVELOPING EYE HAS ALSO INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR
JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0114Z SSMIS AND 0243Z AMSU OVERPASSES INDICATED
A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL RECON CENTER
POSITION. THIS INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED
INNER CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
GIVEN THE VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS THAT
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 21.7N  91.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 22.8N  92.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N  94.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 24.8N  95.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 25.3N  97.4W    85 KT...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 26.0N 100.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 27.5N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 291454
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER AND AN APPARENT DRY SLOT WEST OF THE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 70 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...
THE LATTER ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE CENTER.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 982 MB.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

ALEX HAS TURNED LEFT AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
THE 12 HR MOTION IS 325/10...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE
FASTER.  RAWINSONDE DATA THIS MORNING SHOW HEIGHT RISES FROM
850-500 MB OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...INDICATING THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THIS AREA IS STRENGTHENING AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALEX WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE AS IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. 
INDEED...THE ECMWF AND THE NAM SUGGEST ALEX COULD TURN SOUTH OF
WEST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH
OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BURST IS PRODUCING TOPS COLDER THAN
-80C...AND THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  THESE ARE
SIGNS THAT ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN SOON.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THERE IS APPARENTLY
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  IN ADDITION...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN
DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DESPITE A SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE LIGHT-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER
ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER
FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
WARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 22.7N  93.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 23.7N  94.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 24.7N  95.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 25.2N  97.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 25.7N  98.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 26.0N 101.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 292047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT.  SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  THIS
PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.  
 
ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF.  THUS...
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
NECESSARY.

ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
OCCURRING.  THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK
INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT.  THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST
POINTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 23.2N  94.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 23.9N  95.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  96.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.9N  98.1W    75 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 25.2N  99.9W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 300233
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
 
ALEX HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER ON A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LEG AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB BY
DROPSONDE.  THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 62
KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SOON THEREAFTER...THE
AIRCRAFT HAD TO DEPART THE AREA DUE TO RADAR FAILURE.  BASED ON THE
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE SINCE EARLIER TODAY AND THE
FACT THAT HIGHER SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT...ALEX IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10
KT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO LANDFALL.  THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 33 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...I.E. A 30-KT INCREASE OVER 24 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX
STRENGTHENING BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND ABOUT THE
SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
ALEX WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AFTER SOME
SMOOTHING...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8.  SHORT-TERM
FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND GFS SUGGEST
THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION IS TEMPORARY AND THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK SHOULD RESUME SOON.  THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
ALEX REACHING THE COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE JOG TO
THE LEFT...THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PREDICTED LANDFALL POINT BECAUSE OF
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...AND ALSO BECAUSE THIS IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 23.1N  94.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 23.7N  96.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 24.2N  97.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.6N  99.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 300851
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
ALEX HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING BASED ON
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A SMALL EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 0842Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
961 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 82 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A RELIABLE SURFACE
WIND OF 62 KT AND A RAIN-CONTAMINATED PEAK WIND OF 71 KT. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T4.5/77 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
ALEX HAS WOBBLED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND EVEN
BRIEFLY STALLED. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH THE SATELLITE AND RECON
FIXES YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 290/06. UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT
00Z INDICATED MODEST 10-30 METER HEIGHT RISES FROM 700-400 MB
ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS
MEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING
FLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON
BRINGING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO
STEER ALEX ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE 00Z AND 06 MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF
SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THIS MDOEL HAS GONE FROM
BEING THE PERSISTENT LEFT-MOST OF THE MODELS TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE MODEL SUITE...AND IT NOW HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO HWRF. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
AND REMAINS NEAR THE EXTREME RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME
OF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS
REASONABLE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE
RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 23.3N  95.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 23.8N  96.2W    80 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.3N  97.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N  99.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.4N 101.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 301448
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
 
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING WITH T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB REACHING 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 958 MB AND 961 MB. 
HOWEVER...BOTH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ON THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND WINDS ARE SPREAD OUT IN
OTHER QUADRANTS. GIVEN SUCH A LOW MINIMUM PRESSURE...THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION...THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AND ALEX COULD
REACH CATEGORY TWO BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE
REPLACED BY A RIDGE SOON. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ALEX
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A SHARP
TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST DEPENDING UPON THE
FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN EACH MODEL. THIS TRACK SHOULD
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALEX IS A LARGE
HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING A GREAT
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  RADAR DATA SHOW THAT STRONG SQUALLS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
COASTS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 23.8N  95.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 24.1N  96.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.5N  98.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 302036
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
EARLIER TODAY...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT
ALEX HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11
KNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT
TURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXICO.
 
ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP THE HURRICANE
WARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR
ARE 96 KNOTS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES
AND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 24.5N  96.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 010239
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ALEX
CROSSED THE COAST IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AROUND 0200 UTC.  JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 87 KT FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 947 MB.  ASSUMING THAT THE PEAK WINDS
WERE NOT SAMPLED...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONTINUED DROP IN
CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS SET AT 90 KT.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLIGHT
DECREASE SINCE LANDFALL.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS ALEX
MOVES OVER LAND...AND THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER RAPID
AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE VERY HIGH AND RUGGED TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. 
DISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 260/9...JUST A TAD SOUTH OF DUE WEST. 
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ALEX IS PREDICTED TO BE MORE OR
LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD MOVE THE
CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

AS THE WINDS DECREASE AND THE SURGE AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ALEX WILL BE
TORRENTIAL RAINS TOTALING AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF MEXICO.  ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX.

IT MAY BE OF INTEREST THAT ALEX WAS THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO...AND THE
STRONGEST...HURRICANE TO OCCUR IN JUNE SINCE ALMA OF 1966.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 24.3N  97.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N  99.4W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 24.3N 101.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.8N 103.8W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 

WTNT41 KNHC 010836
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
 
ALEX IS STILL MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A
LARGE CURVED RAINBAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SUGGEST THAT ALEX HAS WEAKENED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS
DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC
AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ALEX WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/10. 
A STRENGTHENING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION.  BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF ALEX SPLITTING...WITH ONE PART MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ANOTHER PORTION RECURVING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S.
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THESE REMNANTS...ALONG
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALEX DISSIPATES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 24.0N  99.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.9N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.1N 102.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 011431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
 
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...AND ALEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/11.
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT...
THEN THE REMNANTS OF ALEX SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 23.1N 100.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 102.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 012033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT ALEX HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
RAGGED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER.   IN ADDITION...
THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS OF ALEX HAVE DECOUPLED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER MOVING SOUTHWEST AND THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  ZACATECAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SO ALEX WILL STAY A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALEX WILL FURTHER WEAKEN...THEN PROBABLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY
UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE REMNANTS OF ALEX ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 23.2N 101.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 102.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT41 KNHC 020233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010
 
ALEX HAS MOVED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO AT
ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 5000 AND 8000 FEET...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS.  IN ADDITION...THE ONLY DEEP
CONVECTION LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF ALEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW WELL TO THE EAST ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. 
ALEX HAS THEREFORE DISSIPATED...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
ON THIS SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND
25 KT...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT ZACATECAS MEXICO.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES...OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FOR THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 23.3N 102.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

