WTNT41 KNHC 152105
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
 
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE
WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON
THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR.  WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL
TRACK.  THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA.  COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. 
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL
BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE.  THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE
STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 18.5N  69.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.9N  71.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  74.1W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  76.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  81.0W    40 KT...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
120HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 152127
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...CORRECTION OF THE 72H POSITION TEXT 
 
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE
WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON
THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR.  WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL
TRACK.  THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA.  COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. 
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL
BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE.  THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE
STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 18.5N  69.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.9N  71.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  74.1W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  76.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  81.0W    40 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
120HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 160239
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
 
WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME
THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING.
IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA.  ONLY
THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY
A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS
FORECAST.  
 
BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING
CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS.  FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
 
IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 18.7N  70.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.8N  72.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  75.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  77.8W    50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N  79.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N  81.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.5N  83.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 31.0N  84.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 160858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY IS
LOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT IS STILL INLAND...OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE ENTIRE
ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENDURING SOME
RATHER TURBULENT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WE APPRECIATE THE HARD
WORK OF THE CREW.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.  FAY REMAINS BENEATH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RESULTING IN WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW
ALOFT...AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE
STORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 270/12 TO THE
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING...DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FAY TO TURN TO THE RIGHT INTO THE
WEAKNESS...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN
3-5 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE ARE RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH
SIDES OF THAT TRACK.  THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE
SHORTER TERM...THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT
THE PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES.

INTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT...BUT IN THIS CASE IS MADE
EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...SO THE
MORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER...THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME...AND VICE VERSA.  DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A MODEST BUT TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ROUGHLY 48 HOURS.  WHEN FAY IS OVER
WATER...THOSE WATERS WILL BE VERY WARM.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IMPLIES AMPLE AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL.  FAY COULD BE
WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF ITS STAY OVER HISPANIOLA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY
DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION...OR IF IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
AND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER CUBA.  A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...HOWEVER...COULD ALLOW FAY TO GET STRONGER THAN WHAT IS
SHOWN BELOW.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.7N  72.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N  76.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  78.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.8N  79.9W    65 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N  82.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  84.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 161507
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.  WHILE
THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER
THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO
PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13.  FAY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN.  THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR
FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE
GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST.  THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA.  THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THUS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER 48 HR.  EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.

WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY
FORECAST.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER.  ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.0N  73.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  75.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  77.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.1N  79.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.7N  80.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 26.0N  82.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  83.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 162058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY
IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER...WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB.  THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT A NEW CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AFTER 36 HR.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN
AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN.  THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY
THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THESE
MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL.  THE GFS...HWRF...
GFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT.  EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.
 
WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
INTENSITY FORECAST.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES
WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT
STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED
STATES AFTER LANDFALL.  SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72
HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.3N  75.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  77.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N  79.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 23.6N  81.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 170246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN
FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND
IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS
A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.
 
FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS
INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.    
 
ON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 19.4N  76.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  80.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N  82.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 31.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 170902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
 
THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE
TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT
MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE CENTER.  HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE STEERING FLOW
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO
SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND UKMET...TURN FAY NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
LATTER SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER
CORE IS IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDES NEAR THE
CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE HAS NOT YET CHANGED MUCH.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA.  IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  77.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.7N  81.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.4N  82.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
 

WTNT41 KNHC 171507
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
 
FAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND A
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT.  BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR
AGO.  FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF
A TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL FORECAST A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
ATLANTIC.  THE HWRF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A
NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THEN...THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 
OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48
HR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS
A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE
TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 20.5N  78.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 21.3N  80.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.9N  81.4W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 26.2N  82.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 29.5N  82.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  81.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 172105
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
 
FAY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANZIED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SINGS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE
WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB.

THE CENTER OF FAY SURGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY...AT ONE TIME MOVING BETWEEN 18-20 KT.  THAT MOTION APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 300/13.  FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING
DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...
BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHARPER TURN WITH LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING FAY CROSSING TO THE ATLANTIC THEN
MOVING WESTWARD TO HIT FLORIDA AGAIN.  THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE
SHIFTED WEST SINCE THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE UKMET HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  THESE MODELS HAVE JOINED THE HWRF IN
CALLING FOR A TRACK NEAR OR JUST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION CAUSED BY THE
MOTION SURGE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHIPS MODEL NOW
FORECASTS PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHEAR FROM 18-48 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF FAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF WHICH IS CORRECT.  IT APPEARS THE
SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
SHOWN IN THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS
FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THOSE LINES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
HWRF CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A PEAK JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY
FROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION.  THE
NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 21.0N  80.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N  81.7W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 23.8N  82.8W    55 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 25.3N  83.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  83.2W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 33.5N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  82.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 180253
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION
SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR
DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE
MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST.  STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 
INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY.  FAY IS LIKELY
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE.  NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH.  SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE
SHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST.  THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL
CONDITIONS.  I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 45 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY SINCE EARLIER
TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENTLY OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.  HOWEVER IT IS BELIEVED THAT THESE
WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE STRONG CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER WHICH WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY
EVEN BE CAUSING SOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE STORM.  ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE FAY IS OVER WATER DURING THE
EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 48 HOURS OR SO...SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFDL AND HWRF MODEL PREDICTIONS.  IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST HOWEVER.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A BETTER
WAY OF ASSESSING YOUR RISK IS TO MAKE USE OF THE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITIES.  THESE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GIVEN
LOCATIONS WHEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 21.4N  80.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.3N  81.7W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.8N  82.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 25.3N  82.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 27.0N  82.8W    70 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 30.5N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/0000Z 37.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT41 KNHC 180915
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
 
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY.  WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. 
ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
ASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA. 
ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAY WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY
CONNECTED.  THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR.  GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WITH THESE WINDS OCCURRING
JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
GIVEN THIS PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FAY FROM
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 22.5N  80.9W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  81.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 25.1N  82.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 26.6N  82.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 28.2N  82.2W    60 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 31.1N  82.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 33.0N  82.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 181504
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
 
THE CENTER OF FAY HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THIS ASYMMETRY IS LIKELY DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT...WITH
RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT.    BASED ON THIS AND
SIMILAR DOPPLER RADAR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT.  THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 1003 MB.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11.  FAY IS
ENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST FAY TO
TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND STALL BY 120 HR...WHILE
THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER NOTED
THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THESE OUTLIERS ARE IGNORED FOR THE MOMENT. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD SCENARIO...LYING
JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HR.

FAY IS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE...WILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS MAKING FAY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  AFTER LANDFALL...FAY SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.  THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE FAY
MIGHT NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 23.6N  81.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 24.6N  81.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 26.2N  82.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N  82.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 29.3N  81.8W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 33.6N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/1200Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 182104
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS
TO INCREASE...AS AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM.  LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10.  FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.  BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO
THIS PATTERN.  THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND
THEREAFTER.  THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR.  THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST.  THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND
MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR.  FINALLY...THE GFDL
AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY'S
PROGRESS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK...WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING.  THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AFTER 24 HR...THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND...AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS
DISSIPATING.  IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.
 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 24.6N  81.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 25.8N  82.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 27.4N  81.9W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 28.8N  81.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 31.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 32.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 190255
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
 
FAY'S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING.  THE STORM
BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL
PRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON
THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FAY.  NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING.  OUR
FORECAST FOR FAY'S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS
FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. 

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8.  FAY IS
MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST.  SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND U.K. MET
OFFICE MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY'S TREK
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  AFTER 1-2 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY
IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
FAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS.  THE FORECAST OF
FAY'S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER.  SHOULD FAY
REMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 25.3N  81.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 26.6N  81.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 28.1N  81.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 29.2N  81.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 30.3N  81.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 31.0N  81.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 32.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/0000Z 32.0N  84.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 190902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
 
SFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY
DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE.  A
DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE
BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS
SET AT 50 KT.  THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT
MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T
MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS
HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL
BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 25.9N  81.7W    50 KT...LANDFALL
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  81.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 28.3N  80.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 29.3N  80.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 30.0N  81.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 31.0N  83.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 191445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
 
DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB.  FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR
THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR
GEORGIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 26.7N  81.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 27.9N  80.9W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 28.9N  80.6W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 30.0N  80.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 30.6N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
 
FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON. 
 
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 27.3N  81.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 28.2N  80.5W    55 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 29.0N  80.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 30.0N  81.4W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 30.5N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 31.4N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 200242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE
NORMAL FASHION.  THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 45 KT.  FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS
CENTER IS OVER LAND.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.  THEREFORE FAY
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER
ON WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST SHIPS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.

RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND
THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.  THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 27.7N  80.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 28.4N  80.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 29.5N  80.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 29.9N  81.7W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 30.5N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT41 KNHC 200242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE
NORMAL FASHION.  THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 45 KT.  FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS
CENTER IS OVER LAND.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.  THEREFORE FAY
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER
ON WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST SHIPS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.

RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND
THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.  THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 27.7N  80.7W    45 KT
12HR VT     20/1200Z 28.4N  80.3W    50 KT
24HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     21/1200Z 29.5N  80.8W    65 KT
48HR VT     22/0000Z 29.9N  81.7W    65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     23/0000Z 30.5N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT41 KNHC 200855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 28.2N  80.6W    45 KT...JUST INLAND
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.8N  80.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 29.3N  80.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 30.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT41 KNHC 201444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
 
FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY
OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. 
SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE
TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS
SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR.
 
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT
BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN
FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 28.6N  80.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 29.4N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 29.8N  82.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 200855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 28.2N  80.6W    45 KT...JUST INLAND
12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.8N  80.6W    50 KT
24HR VT     21/0600Z 29.3N  80.9W    60 KT
36HR VT     21/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     22/0600Z 30.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT41 KNHC 201444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY
OVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR.
SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE
TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS
SOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
LANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT
BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN
FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 28.6N  80.6W    45 KT
12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.6W    45 KT
24HR VT     21/1200Z 29.4N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     22/0000Z 29.8N  82.2W    35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 202032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
 
FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS
SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.
SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL.
 
FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED
AS A VERY WET STORM.  THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS
FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 28.8N  80.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 29.2N  80.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  81.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 29.8N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 30.2N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 31.3N  86.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  88.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D
RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM
HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE.  WSR-88D
VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE MOST
RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
FAY IN A FEW HOURS.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.  ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.  A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IF
FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. 
IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 28.9N  80.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.4N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 30.1N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 210849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
 
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR.  THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.
 
AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 29.1N  80.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 29.4N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.6N  82.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 30.0N  83.9W    30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 30.3N  85.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/0600Z 31.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 211441
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
 
THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
 
STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 29.3N  80.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.8N  84.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
 
NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. 

FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. 

SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.    
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  81.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 220300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
 
FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.  THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D
VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT
RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING.

EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING
WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE
LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. 
SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE
GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE
PANHANDLE.  LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS
ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS
AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  IF THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND
24 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 29.3N  81.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 29.4N  82.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W    35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 30.4N  86.7W    35 KT...NEAR COAST
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 31.2N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 220905
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE STRUCTURE OF FAY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS 50 N MI OR MORE FROM THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST
RAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. 
WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE
INTENSITY...WHICH IS SET AT 45 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR
ELSEWHERE.

FAY HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION OF 280/5.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HR.   THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD...WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR THAN IT DID 6 HR AGO.  AFTER 72 HR...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AT THIS POINT...SO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHEASTERLY MOTION.
 
DUE TO FAY'S PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL
NOT LIKELY BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH TO INTENSITY.  ON THIS
BASIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  IF FAY MOVES
TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER
AND WEAKEN FASTER.  IF IT MOVES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MORE
OVER OPEN WATER...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  HOWEVER...
THE CURRENT BROAD STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO
IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP
INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 29.6N  82.2W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 29.8N  84.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 30.1N  86.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 31.0N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 221439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
 
FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT
HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED.  BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40
KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT
BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND
FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
A REMNANT LOW.  
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.7N  83.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 30.3N  86.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.6N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 222027
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
 
THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY
COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
 
THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. 
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 29.8N  83.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.2N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  91.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 230300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
 
THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC...EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER
ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY...BUT A
POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE
ABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN EXPANSIVE RAIN
SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND WHILE
WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7...AS
FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THAT RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED.  AS A RESULT...FAY
WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS
ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS
TO COLLAPSE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND
HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW
RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE. 
BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING
UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS.
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 29.7N  84.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.8N  85.3W    45 KT...NEAR COAST
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.5W    40 KT...NEAR COAST
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 30.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 

WTNT41 KNHC 230858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008
 
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY MADE LANDFALL
ABOUT 0600 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA.  THE LATEST
IMAGERY FROM THE WSR-88D IN TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION BANDING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE ARE NO
RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS FROM
EITHER LAND OR MARINE STATIONS...SO THE INTENSITY IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN.  BASED MAINLY ON DOPPLER WIND VELOCITIES...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER
WINDS OF NEAR 65 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE NOT
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 275/6...AS THE CENTER
OCCASIONALLY SURGES AHEAD FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT. 
FAY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER 24-48 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES.  AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FAY WESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...THEN STEER THE
CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AFTER 48 HR THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH FORECASTS
FAY TO MAKE A LOOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IS THE SLOWEST. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FAY WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE
CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HOW MUCH LAND THE STORM ENCOUNTERS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ENOUGH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER WATER FOR
THE NEXT 72 HR TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM
COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.  AFTER 72 HR...FAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND AND IN ENOUGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CAUSE IT TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW. 
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 29.9N  84.9W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  86.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 30.3N  87.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  89.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 30.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 32.1N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT41 KNHC 231439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008
 
FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION
OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS
THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING
WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY
MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 30.1N  85.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.6N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.7N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 232034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY
COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY
THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT
LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 30.6N  86.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 31.2N  89.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT41 KNHC 202032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS
SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.
SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL.

FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED
AS A VERY WET STORM.  THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS
FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 28.8N  80.5W    45 KT
12HR VT     21/0600Z 29.2N  80.9W    50 KT
24HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  81.8W    45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     22/0600Z 29.8N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     22/1800Z 30.2N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     23/1800Z 31.3N  86.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  88.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D
RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM
HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE.  WSR-88D
VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE MOST
RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
FAY IN A FEW HOURS.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.  ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.  A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IF
FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW.
IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 28.9N  80.5W    50 KT
12HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.4N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     22/1200Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     23/0000Z 30.1N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT41 KNHC 210849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR.  THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.

AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0900Z 29.1N  80.7W    50 KT
12HR VT     21/1800Z 29.4N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.6N  82.5W    40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     22/1800Z 30.0N  83.9W    30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST
48HR VT     23/0600Z 30.3N  85.1W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/0600Z 31.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT41 KNHC 211441
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/1500Z 29.3N  80.8W    50 KT
12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     22/1200Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.8N  84.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE.

SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  81.4W    50 KT
12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.8W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 220300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.  THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D
VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT
RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING.

EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING
WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE
LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.
SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE
GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE
PANHANDLE.  LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS
ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS
AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  IF THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND
24 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0300Z 29.3N  81.4W    50 KT
12HR VT     22/1200Z 29.4N  82.3W    40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W    35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
36HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.3W    35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     24/0000Z 30.4N  86.7W    35 KT...NEAR COAST
72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     26/0000Z 31.2N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT41 KNHC 220905
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE STRUCTURE OF FAY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS 50 N MI OR MORE FROM THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST
RAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE
INTENSITY...WHICH IS SET AT 45 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR
ELSEWHERE.

FAY HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION OF 280/5.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HR.   THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD...WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR THAN IT DID 6 HR AGO.  AFTER 72 HR...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AT THIS POINT...SO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHEASTERLY MOTION.

DUE TO FAY'S PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL
NOT LIKELY BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH TO INTENSITY.  ON THIS
BASIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  IF FAY MOVES
TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER
AND WEAKEN FASTER.  IF IT MOVES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MORE
OVER OPEN WATER...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  HOWEVER...
THE CURRENT BROAD STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO
IMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP
INTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0900Z 29.6N  82.2W    45 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.2W    40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     23/0600Z 29.8N  84.6W    35 KT
36HR VT     23/1800Z 30.1N  86.1W    35 KT
48HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     26/0600Z 31.0N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT41 KNHC 221439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT
HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED.  BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40
KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT
BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND
FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT
12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.7N  83.5W    40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     24/0000Z 30.3N  86.5W    35 KT
48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.6N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 222027
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY
COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 29.8N  83.2W    40 KT
12HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.1W    40 KT
24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.2N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     26/1800Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  91.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 230300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
NEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC...EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER
ITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY...BUT A
POTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE
ABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN EXPANSIVE RAIN
SHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND WHILE
WINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7...AS
FAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THAT RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED.  AS A RESULT...FAY
WILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS
ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS
TO COLLAPSE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND
HOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW
RELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING
UP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z 29.7N  84.2W    45 KT
12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.8N  85.3W    45 KT...NEAR COAST
24HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.5W    40 KT...NEAR COAST
48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     26/0000Z 30.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT41 KNHC 230858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY MADE LANDFALL
ABOUT 0600 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA.  THE LATEST
IMAGERY FROM THE WSR-88D IN TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION BANDING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE ARE NO
RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS FROM
EITHER LAND OR MARINE STATIONS...SO THE INTENSITY IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN.  BASED MAINLY ON DOPPLER WIND VELOCITIES...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER
WINDS OF NEAR 65 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE NOT
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 275/6...AS THE CENTER
OCCASIONALLY SURGES AHEAD FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT.
FAY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER 24-48 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES.  AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FAY WESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...THEN STEER THE
CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AFTER 48 HR THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH FORECASTS
FAY TO MAKE A LOOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IS THE SLOWEST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FAY WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE
CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HOW MUCH LAND THE STORM ENCOUNTERS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ENOUGH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER WATER FOR
THE NEXT 72 HR TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM
COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.  AFTER 72 HR...FAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND AND IN ENOUGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CAUSE IT TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 29.9N  84.9W    40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  86.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT     24/0600Z 30.3N  87.5W    40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  89.1W    40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     26/0600Z 30.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     27/0600Z 32.1N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT41 KNHC 231439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION
OVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS
THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING
WESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY
MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 30.1N  85.6W    40 KT
12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.8W    40 KT
24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.4W    40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.6N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.7N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 232034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY
COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY
THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT
LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 30.6N  86.3W    40 KT
12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     24/1800Z 31.2N  89.7W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT41 KNHC 240258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7.  RAIN
BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND
ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.  FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS.  SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH.  AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE
STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR
EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING
THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.  MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON
WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH
AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY
TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 30.9N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT     24/1200Z 31.3N  88.6W    30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.2N  90.3W    25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




