WTNT44 KNHC 211444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010
 
AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED
PEAK FLIGHT WINDS OF 40 KT...RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 37 KT...AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB.  BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KT.  THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF INCREASING MASS
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL SEEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.  OVERALL...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
MANY CURVED BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.   

GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET IN THE SHORT-TERM.
WHILE SHEAR HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THIS DRY AIR WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SLOWING THE
STRENGTHENING RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY A TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE...
CREATING A RATHER LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS HIGHER THEREAFTER. THE
NEW FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH
IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF RICHARD DEVELOPS THE RIGHT INNER CORE
STRUCTURE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN ERRATICALLY MOVING DURING MOST OF ITS LIFE...AND
A LONG-TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 135/5.  CURRENTLY RICHARD IS UNDERGOING
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AS IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  BY LATE TOMORROW...RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO
THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. 
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE THE
KEY FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST.  GENERALLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD
ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS
THE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE
RIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  CONSIDERING THAT THE
NEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 16.2N  80.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N  80.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N  80.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N  81.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.2N  82.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.4N  85.2W    80 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N  88.0W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  89.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS
TO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION.  THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN
OF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST.  THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS 
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH
CIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO
THE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD.  HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS.  SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 16.0N  80.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.8N  80.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.7N  81.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N  81.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N  83.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N  86.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.5N  89.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT44 KNHC 220237
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007
MB.  BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.  THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
 
RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS
MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT
LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE
CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE
SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW
TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD.  THE
CYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U.
S. TROUGH.  BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING
INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT.  AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  AS A RESULT OF THIS
EVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING.  THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 15.9N  80.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.8N  81.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N  81.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N  82.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N  84.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N  87.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N  89.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/0000Z 21.5N  89.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 220835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR HAS
RELAXED A LITTLE BIT MORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0
AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
LAST RECON A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND A WEAK CYCLONE...MICROWAVE DATA
DOES NOT SHOW AN INNER CORE...AND FURTHERMORE...ASCAT DATA SHOW
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK RICHARD ABOUT 12
UTC.0.

NOW THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE
AREA...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.  RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
ONCE OVER YUCATAN THE EFFECT OF LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR...ARE
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING RICHARD AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CYCLONE
TO BE CLOSER TO LAND INSTEAD OF OVER THE OPEN NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

RICHARD HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE IT IS
STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS STEERING
PATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE CURRENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS
OUT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE.  THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL FORCE RICHARD ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A STRONGER RIDGE
THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT. NONE OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD AND ARE FOLLOWING THE WESTWARD TREND INITIATED BY THE
GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 16.0N  80.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.9N  80.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N  81.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N  83.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N  84.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N  87.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT44 KNHC 221441
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
 
DESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER
ORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35
KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB.  IN ADDITION...THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER
SOUTH.  THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRENGTHENING.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE
CENTER THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO
THIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...
THOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT
UNREALISTIC.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST
BELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND
72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL.  AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING
UNLIKELY. 

A WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
STEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 15.8N  81.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N  81.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  83.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.6N  85.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  88.4W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT44 KNHC 222052
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT
DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
SHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM
1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE STORM.   DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS
REPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT
FROM THE CIMSS ADT.  GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
SET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT.
 
THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER.  THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT
ABOUT 4 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN
ACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER
RIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
TROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.  
 
AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS
STRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE
MODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED.  VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP
WITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY
WINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE
RAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM
DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS
THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.2N  81.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.2N  82.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N  83.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.7N  85.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N  86.9W    75 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.2N  89.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  92.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT44 KNHC 230248
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

RICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  THE
CONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA
FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIR
FORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND
SFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT.  BASED ON THESE AND
EARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND
MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.
 
WHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
THE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING
UNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM.  THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15
KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO
THE CORE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH
BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS
DEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL
NO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON
THIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
RICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR.  AFTER EMERGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 15.8N  82.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  83.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 230856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD.  DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A
40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  DURING THAT
TIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE
INLAND.   AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN 
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN
THAT DIRECTION.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW
THESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS
COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 15.8N  83.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N  84.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N  87.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N  89.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  91.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  94.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 231458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
HURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS.  MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT
DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.   
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.9N  83.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N  89.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  94.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT44 KNHC 232034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED.  BANDING FEATURES
ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF
RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED.  MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW
SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND
SHIPS MODELS.  THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.
DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER
RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  
 
RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT.   A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.  RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N  84.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N  87.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.8N  88.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  93.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT44 KNHC 240231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AT 925 MB...SURFACE SFMR WINDS OF 58-63
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.  A 2259 UTC SSM/IS OVERPASS
SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND THE PLANE REPORTED A FORMATIVE
20-25 N MI EYEWALL WITH A ROUGHLY 12 N MI RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND. 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TILT OF THE VORTEX MAY BE
GRADUALLY LESSENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL WESTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING.  THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES...CALLING FOR A LESSER AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL AIR NEAR THE STORM CIRCULATION AND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD ARGUE IN FAVOR OF THIS
TREND.  ON THE OTHER HAND...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION
WITH LAND...THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD PORTEND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IN BELIZE. IF RICHARD SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...
REGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.  THE INTENSITY
WAS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER
THAT.
 
USING RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THERE
HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD STEER RICHARD ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW AND INLAND OVER
BELIZE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.  AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING
RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS...THEN A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 16.3N  84.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N  85.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  87.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.1N  89.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N  93.0W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N  94.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 240856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM WITHIN A RING OF CLOUD TOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES OF -70C AND COLDER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE NOTED IN AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS AND IN
BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICHARD...AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND WITH THIS CYCLONE WHEN
THE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES AT AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED AND
RAGGED NATURE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR
IN QUADRANTS...BUT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL.

RICHARD IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON RICHARD MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF RICHARD NEAR THE BELIZE COAST IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 96-120
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OR SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AT ONLY 5-10 KT RIGHT
UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE BELIZE-YUCATAN COAST. IF THE EYE
FEATURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO
PHYSICAL REASONS WHY RICHARD SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY RIGHT UP UNTIL
LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
ARE NEAR 29.5C AND MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. AFTER
LANDFALL OCCURS...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND RICHARD IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DUE TO THE RECENT
APPEARANCE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 16.5N  85.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  87.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.6N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 241448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  
BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL.  GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10.  ASIDE FROM BEING
SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.  RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 16.9N  86.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N  88.4W    85 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  90.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N  91.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  94.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT44 KNHC 242051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
RICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING
THE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED
WAS 69 KT.  HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE
SURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB.  BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND
BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW
UNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
 
RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR
ABOUT 285/11.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.    THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
BE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE
STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 17.2N  88.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.6N  89.4W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.7N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N  92.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.3N  94.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 250249
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.  THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND.  RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.  MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER. 
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK
CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE 
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 17.3N  88.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.6N  89.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.2N  91.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N  92.2W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.4N  93.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
 

WTNT44 KNHC 250846
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS FALLEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE INNER-
CORE IS LOSING DEFINITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55
KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM REMAINS INLAND. ALTHOUGH RICHARD IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR. THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE CYCLONE BY 72
HOURS...THEREFORE...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
DAY AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...RICHARD...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS
OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 17.6N  89.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.1N  90.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N  91.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  92.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N  93.9W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
 

WTNT44 KNHC 251435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. 
ALTHOUGH RICHARD SHOULD ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18 HOURS OR SO
THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE REGENERATION.  RICHARD IS
LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
ABOUT 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 17.8N  90.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N  91.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N  92.2W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.7N  93.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.8N  94.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

WTNT44 KNHC 252033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING.  HOWEVER...
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE GULF...IT
SHOULD BE A VERY WEAK CYCLONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
REINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICHARD BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO BUT THIS EVENT COULD VERY WELL OCCUR
SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK.  BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY RICHARD OR ITS
REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 18.1N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N  92.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  93.4W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N  94.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT44 KNHC 260242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
 
RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY.  A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 18.4N  91.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  92.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N  93.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  94.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 260832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICHARD HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND
WHAT CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WITH THE CYCLONE IS WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...THIS
COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N  92.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N  93.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.9N  94.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT44 KNHC 261432
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
 
RICHARD LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROHIBIT REGENERATION.
 
THE LOW IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THIS
MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 20.4N  93.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 21.6N  93.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.2N  94.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

