WTNT45 KNHC 062058
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009
 
ALTHOUGH IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS NOW MIGRATED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...AND A
1336 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS TO 35 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI.
HENRI WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.  THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW HENRI DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT.  HENRI IS LOCATED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  WATCHES ARE NOT
REQUIRED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS.
 
THE FORMATION OF HENRI ILLUSTRATES HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ANTICIPATE
THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION THAT DISTINGUISH STRONG TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES FROM WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES...PARTICULARLY WHEN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

HENRI IS A FRENCH NAME AND IS PRONOUNCED AS AHN-REE WITH THE ACCENT
ON THE SECOND SYLLABLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 17.8N  54.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  56.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.4N  58.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  61.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

WTNT45 KNHC 070239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009
 
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSATE NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRI THIS
EVENING AND THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY.  
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED...SUGGESTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN 
ORGANIZATION.  A 2151 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 40 KT WIND
VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAT SEEM BELIEVABLE. 
ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR HENRI TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE.  HENRI IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 18.4N  55.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.3N  57.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.5N  59.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.8N  61.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 070848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2009
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF
VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C. IN FACT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...
THOUGH THERE ARE NO BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...A 0531 UTC AMSR-E
PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED...
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. BASED
UPON THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND RECENT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 3.0 FROM UW CIMSS.
 
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO PREVENT
HENRI FROM STRENGTHENING MUCH. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
HIGH WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER HENRI FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE RELAXATION THEREAFTER. THIS DOES NOT
SEEM ENTIRELY REALISTIC...AS A MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT HENRI SHOULD CROSS A SHARP SHEAR AXIS NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 36-48 HOURS AND ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT ALSO FORECASTS
HENRI TO ENCOUNTER A CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND A RATHER
ANTICYCLONIC LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD
HAVE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A
MAJORITY OF LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...CALLING FOR THE
DISSIPATION OF HENRI WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A RATHER UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION.
FORTUNATELY...A 0531 UTC AMSR-E PASS HAS ALLOWED FOR A MORE
CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/11...FARTHER LEFT THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF HENRI...WITH A MINOR
WEAKNESS AT UPPER LEVELS NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL
POSITION AND MORE WESTERLY MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 18.1N  56.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.9N  58.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  60.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.2N  62.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 21.2N  63.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 071435
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BECOME EXPOSED
AGAIN TO THE WEST OF A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION...THE
LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER LOOKS A LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN
YESTERDAY.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...AND
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY. 
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
HENRI WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THEN COME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG...CONVERGENT...NORTHEASTERLY UPPER
FLOW.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER HOSTILE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES BY SHOWING THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD
FAVOR A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF HENRI OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED BECOME STRONGER AFTER THAT
TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OR ITS REMNANT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 18.9N  57.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.6N  59.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.6N  61.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 21.2N  62.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 21.2N  64.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 072032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009
 
HENRI IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH A
SECONDARY CENTER NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES.  A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES GIVEN AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...
BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SHEAR IS LIKELY FOR A DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE.  IF HENRI SURVIVES THAT SHEAR...AN UPPER-TROUGH AXIS WITH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE KNOCKOUT BLOW TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...
IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
 
USING A MEAN MOTION OF THE TWO CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/12.  A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CAUSE HENRI...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN
SOUTH OF WEST UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.  THIS SOLUTION HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR BAM SHALLOW.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 19.4N  58.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.1N  60.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 20.9N  62.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.2N  63.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N  66.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT45 KNHC 080233
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF HENRI IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE IS DUE TO ABOUT
25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND ON THIS BASIS...HENRI IS BEING
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET
AT 30 KT.  THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THE CYCLONE.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT HENRI...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL BE MOVING
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN 12 AND 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
CALLS FOR HENRI TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
DAY.  THEREAFTER...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING HENRI...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO TURN WESTWARD
OR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL HEADING AND IS NEAR THE BAM
SHALLOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 19.5N  59.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 20.1N  61.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.7N  63.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N  65.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.6N  67.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 080833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009
 
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND PROBABLY TRANSIENT.  HENRI HAS A VERY SMALL
CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DIAGNOSED AT AROUND 20 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL. 
THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 
12 TO 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.  THE SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR OVER HENRI OR ITS REMNANT DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LESSEN
SOMEWHAT IN A DAY OR TWO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING. 

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 285/13. 
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 19.9N  61.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  62.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  64.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 20.7N  66.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N  69.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 081431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009
 
HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE
FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.
A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND
THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  HENRI OR ITS REMNANT
LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 19.8N  62.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 20.1N  63.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.2N  65.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 20.2N  67.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.2N  70.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 PM AST THU OCT 08 2009
 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVOURED YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
YEAR.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER.  THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HENRI ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 20.4N  62.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.6N  64.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N  66.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N  69.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

