WTNT45 KNHC 151543
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN
BASED ON DATA FORM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. THE CENTER WAS
FOUND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND
THEREFORE THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
AND NOW ERIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTS.
NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1530Z 25.6N  93.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  95.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  97.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 152041
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ARE WELL
DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM
BUOYS NEARBY AND ANALYSIS OF LOW-CLOUD MOTION SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED.
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FAVOR
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON.      

BECAUSE ERIN IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
REFORMING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ERIN...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING ERIN INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR
LESS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 26.3N  94.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 27.2N  95.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  97.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 160236
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
THESE WINDS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...AND THAT
REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  AT PRESENT...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COVER ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL AREA ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT OVER THE CENTER...AND
THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE.  AT LANDFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...RATHER THAN A WIND EVENT. 

ALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A SHORT-TERM
WESTWARD JOG...A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/12.  A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 26.5N  95.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 27.4N  97.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 28.4N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 160852
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIN
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. NOAA BUOY 42019
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AND VELOCITY DATA FROM
THE CORPUS CHRISTI WSR88D INDICATE WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE ABOVE
THE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. WHILE THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...ERIN STILL HAS 6-12 MORE HOURS
OVER WATER SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
 
ERIN HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER
TERM MOTION YIELDS AND INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 300/10.  A CONTINUATION
OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 27.3N  96.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  98.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 28.8N  99.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 161436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
 
ERIN CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST NEAR LAMAR AND IS NOW MOVING FATHER
INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION
STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WHICH IS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
TIME.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 13 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ERIN. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT  400 PM CDT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 28.5N  97.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 29.5N  99.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 30.5N 101.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 32.0N 103.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

