WTNT45 KNHC 012335
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER.  AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO. 
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. 

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA
AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE
RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS. 

GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.  

NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD
0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL THE
THE FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC/1100 PM AST/EDT.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2330Z 15.2N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.6N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 17.4N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.4N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  05/1800Z 24.0N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 26.0N  79.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 020243
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011
 
EMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE.  BASED ON THE LACK OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS SEEN BY THE COPIOUS
DRY AIR IN THE 00Z SAN JUAN RADIOSONDE AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA.  ASSUMING THAT EMILY RECOVERS
FROM INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF 275/15 ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AND BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.  OVERALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE
NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  THIS WILL ALLOW EMILY TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND
SOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE
DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST
GFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD.  THE HWRF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT
MOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 15.5N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 15.9N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 16.8N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 17.8N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 18.9N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 020848
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL.  MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY.  IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.
 
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14.   THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO.  AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 15.5N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.2N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.0N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.8N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/0600Z 26.0N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 30.0N  80.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 021451
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. 
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.
 
FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY.  A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 15.3N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 15.7N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 16.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 30.0N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 022042
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE
IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET 
WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY
SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH 
DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 15.8N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.2N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.3N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.5N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z 20.5N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 28.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 32.0N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 030244
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
A CDO-LIKE PATTERN...HOWEVER A 2157 UTC SSMIS PASS SUGGESTED THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...45
KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...THAT THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY OVERNIGHT.
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 12 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER EMILY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TILTED STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VELOCITY
DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.  OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
CYCLONE REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME.  IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS TRIP
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW EMILY WILL FARE AFTER LAND INTERACTION.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK
OF AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SSMIS
PASS...THE CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...
YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/12...TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING EMILY TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT A
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EMILY SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5 AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT
THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD
THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN
USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 
BASED ON THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 16.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.0N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.4N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 20.2N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/0000Z 22.0N  74.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 26.0N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 29.5N  78.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 33.0N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 030840
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 46 KT AND THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 42
KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE
THAT ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
WHICH INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED EASTWARD WITH
HEIGHT.  ALSO...CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE VERY
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA.
NORTH OF THAT ISLAND...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT THAT LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 DAYS IS CONSERVATIVE...
HOWEVER...AS IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW SEVERELY EMILY WILL BE DISRUPTED
BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  IN
GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND
DAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 16.5N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.3N  69.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.0N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 20.7N  73.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/0600Z 22.5N  75.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 26.5N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 30.0N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 33.5N  74.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

WTNT45 KNHC 031450
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST
WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE
CYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 16.7N  69.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.5N  71.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0000Z 21.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 26.6N  78.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 34.1N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 032057
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB.  WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
 
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS.  EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 16.9N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 17.5N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.5N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 21.5N  76.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 27.0N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 31.0N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040246
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MULTIPLE
FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z WERE ALL ESSENTIALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION.  DATA FROM
THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY...WHICH REMAINS
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SLOW MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO COME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY LAND
INTERACTION WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THAT PERIOD.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND WELL BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRUCTURE OF
EMILY AFTER IT TRAVERSES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT
TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER.  THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING
EMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES
AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS.  OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW
FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.  

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL
CHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN TO RUN.  IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.  
    
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 17.1N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 17.9N  72.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.1N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.8N  77.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 31.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040246
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011
 
EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MULTIPLE
FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z WERE ALL ESSENTIALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION.  DATA FROM
THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY...WHICH REMAINS
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SLOW MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO COME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY LAND
INTERACTION WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THAT PERIOD.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND WELL BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRUCTURE OF
EMILY AFTER IT TRAVERSES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT
TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER.  THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING
EMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES
AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS.  OVERALL...
THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO
72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT THOSE TIMES.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW
FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.  

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL
CHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FROM RUN TO RUN.  IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.  
    
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 17.1N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 17.9N  72.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.1N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.8N  77.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 31.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 040853
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB.  THE JET DATA
INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE
TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY.  THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY.  IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET
ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR.  DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE
TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.
 
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.  IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 17.3N  71.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.9N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.0N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 22.5N  76.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 24.7N  77.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 28.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 32.5N  74.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 36.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 041443
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER. TODAY THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION WITH
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS STEADY. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL
MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELS
CAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.
THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WITH SUCH
INDICATIONS FROM THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIPS
AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THIS HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY...OR PERHAPS FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BY HAITI AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE EMILY REACHES THE AREA OF
THE BAHAMAS. 
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.
IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST EMILY WILL REACH BEFORE RECURVATURE...
PRIMARILY GIVEN THAT GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF EMILY WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GIVEN THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 17.3N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 18.6N  73.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 23.0N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 25.0N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 29.0N  77.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 062038
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. 
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-
LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY.  EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.
 
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.  THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 26.9N  78.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 27.9N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 31.6N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 33.6N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 070244
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND
1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 48 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY. HOWEVER...THESE
WINDS WERE OCCURRING NEAR ISOLATED SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND WERE
NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...OTHER FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD OR 360/07 KT. EMILY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST
ALONG 28N LATITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE EMILY AND
ACCELERATE IT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. EMILY IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
AFTER LOOKING REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...EMILY
IS NOW EXPERIENCING 10-15 OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS
ELONGATED BOTH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. MODEST NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY 24 HOURS...
HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE AND INDUCES WEAKENING. THE EXACT
TIMING OF MERGER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO NEAR BERMUDA IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR OVER SUCH WARM SSTS. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR EMILY TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY OUT TO 72 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
 
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 27.4N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 29.2N  76.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 30.9N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 32.5N  69.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 34.0N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT45 KNHC 070845
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED...DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WOULD SEEM TO BE THE CASE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
IN WHICH EMILY IS EMBEDDED BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S
CURRENT ORGANIZATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHIPS ANALYSES
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR.  UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES
ALSO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITHIN 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER THAT
TIME BEFORE ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...
DISSIPATION IS NOW INDICATED SOONER.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09.  UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N68W.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR
EVEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 28.5N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 31.7N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 33.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT45 KNHC 071434
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT ON THE
BASIS OF CONTINUITY AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE
CENTER...EMILY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
OR THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLIER THAN DISSIPATION
IS INDICATED HERE.
 
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES
AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES...AT 15 KT.
OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS EMILY
WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE NEW
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 30.1N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 33.4N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

