WTNT33 KNHC 112031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
 
...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. 
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 112337
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
800 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
 
...PAULA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN HONDURAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT33 KNHC 120244
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010
 
...PAULA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 84.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

WTNT33 KNHC 120554
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 120835
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 120838
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN HEADER
 
...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION
 
...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 121141
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...AND THE BAY ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 121440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA POSES A THREAT TO EASTERN YUCATAN AND
WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 85.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. 
PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK PAULA
LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 121738
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...
 
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 

WTNT33 KNHC 122043
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF
PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 

WTNT33 KNHC 122341
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST.  PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT33 KNHC 130239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...MOVING TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 

WTNT33 KNHC 130551
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
100 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING SMALL 
HURRICANE PAULA SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 86.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA SHOULD
REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 130851
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...STILL PACKING 100 MPH WINDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA
SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MEXICAN COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 131132
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

THE WARNINGS FOR YUCATAN MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 131445
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...PAULA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...EYE CLEARLY
SEEN ON CANCUN AND WESTERN CUBAN RADARS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...BUT THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT. 
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. 
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 

WTNT33 KNHC 131754
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...PAULA HESITATES...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT PAULA MIGHT HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT CHECKED THE ENTIRE HURRICANE
YET. NEVERTHELESS...PAULA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 

WTNT33 KNHC 132041
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...PAULA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...WEATHER DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN
CUBA...
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA
WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 

WTNT33 KNHC 132343
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...SMALL PAULA INCHING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST.  PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...PAULA
WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY.  WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
 

WTNT33 KNHC 140236
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...PAULA WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 85.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
  
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON THURSDAY. 
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY.  WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 140550
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
100 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY LATER TODAY.  WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 140857
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST.  PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
 
PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 141139
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM...W OF PUERTO ESPERANZA 
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST.  PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR OVER WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO  A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.
 
PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE WEATHER
STATION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A 60
MPH...97 KM/HR WIND GUST.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA TODAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 141436
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 141750
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
200 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...CENTER OF PAULA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA ON THE NORTH COAST OF PINAR
DEL RIO PROVINCE CUBA... 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA JUST EAST OF PUERTO ESPERANZA.  AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER CUBA TODAY.
 
PAULA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS
COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 142044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WIND GUSTS TO 68 MPH...110
KM/HR REPORTED NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST.
PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. LA PALMA NEAR PUERTO
ESPERANZA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...110 KM/HR...AND BAHIA
HONDA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

WTNT33 KNHC 142344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA
WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. PAULA PASSED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
HAVANA CUBA THIS EVENING AROUND 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
IN HAVANA DURING THE PAST HOUR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
 

WTNT33 KNHC 150239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA SKIRTING THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR VERADERO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 81.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...
95 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

WTNT33 KNHC 150832
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010
 
...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA BY SATURDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CENTRAL
CUBA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

WTNT33 KNHC 151431
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010
 
...PAULA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 79.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.   THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE LOW COULD STILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

