WTNT45 KNHC 021450
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S
ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A
DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE.  THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.
JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28
CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIND SHEAR IS
ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE CYCLONE...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND COULD BE RAPID GIVEN THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND THAT THE SHIPS-BASED RI INDEX GIVES A
50% CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...JOSEPHINE WILL TRAVERSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS...AND DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY
INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  EVEN THOUGH ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND TO START BY 72 HOURS...TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY
SHOWS AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 60 KT IN THE LONGER TERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS BRISK ALONG A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE
WEST...OR 280/13...BUT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PROCEED
WESTWARD AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP-LAYER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF
JOSEPHINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY JUST CAUSE A SLIGHT BEND TO THE
RIGHT AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3-5.  MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE MARKEDLY...WITH
THE GFS TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING
IT NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 13.2N  25.3W    35 KT
12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.6N  27.4W    45 KT
24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  29.9W    55 KT
36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.2N  32.4W    60 KT
48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.1N  34.9W    60 KT
72HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  39.5W    60 KT
96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  43.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  47.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



000

WTNT45 KNHC 022041
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE INFRARED CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL NOT
ALL THAT COLD...WITH SOLID AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  LACKING
ACTUAL WIND DATA ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT.  SOME DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUGGEST THE STORM
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT WE CAN WAIT UNTIL THE VARIOUS
ESTIMATES PERHAPS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  NEVER MIND THE
DETAILS...JOSEPHINE APPEARS POISED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE.  THE
STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER RATHER WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS WILL REMAIN THAT
WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  COMBINE THAT WITH THE COMPLETE
ABSENCE OF WIND SHEAR...AND STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM.  ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE
HWRF FORECAST A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS AT 65 KT
AT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...
WHICH IS AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAKENING TREND AT
DAYS 3-5...HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO JOSEPHINE PASSING OVER COOLER
SSTS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND
SHEAR ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  GIVEN THIS
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKER CYCLONE AT FIVE
DAYS...AND EVEN 55 KT IS ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL PREDICTIONS.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE IS USHERING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/12.  MODELS ARE
CLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY AROUND THIS SAME HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A FASTER
MOTION THAT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EITHER SLOWER OR
FARTHER SOUTH.  SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION...THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.7N  25.9W    45 KT
12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.2N  27.9W    60 KT
24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N  30.5W    65 KT
36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.9N  33.0W    70 KT
48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.9N  35.5W    70 KT
72HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  40.0W    60 KT
96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  44.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  48.5W    55 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



000

WTNT45 KNHC 030249
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SEEN EARLIER TODAY WITH JOSEPHINE HAS
STOPPED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW AN ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN WITH LOTS OF BANDING...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45
KT. JOSEPHINE COULD INTENSIFY SOME WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER ALL GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
STORM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
CAUSE AT LEAST SOME SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER
FORECAST JOSEPHINE TO BE A HURRICANE...A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER.

MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...ABOUT 280/10.  WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE STORM IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FASHION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE NOT AS
CLUSTERED AS BEFORE WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE OTHER
MODELS WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE HWRF/GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0300Z 13.6N  26.8W    45 KT
12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.0N  28.8W    55 KT
24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.7N  31.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N  33.5W    60 KT
48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  36.0W    55 KT
72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  40.0W    50 KT
96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  44.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N  49.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000

WTNT45 KNHC 030838
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF
JOSEPHINE THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EXPANDING OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50
KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF
JOSEPHINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND THE 36
PERIOD.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WITHIN THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
36 HOURS WITH ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET AND THE GFS TO
THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW
DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
BLEND...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SUPER ENSEMBLE ARE
INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A DEEPER LAYER FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0900Z 13.7N  27.5W    50 KT
12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.2N  29.4W    55 KT
24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  31.9W    60 KT
36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.8N  34.4W    60 KT
48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N  36.8W    50 KT
72HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  41.0W    45 KT
96HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  45.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N  50.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH



000

WTNT45 KNHC 031457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOW NEAR 55 KT.   IF
JOSEPHINE HAS ASPIRATIONS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...IT NEEDS TO DO
SO QUICKLY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST...IS BEGINNING TO
IMPINGING UPON JOSEPHINE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED
TO THE NORTHWEST.  ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS
EMANATING FROM THE CLOUD CANOPY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR MIGHT BE
AFFECTING JOSEPHINE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GET EVEN
STRONGER AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GET COOLER... WEAKENING
APPEARS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRACIOUSLY ALLOWS FOR A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS SO JOSEPHINE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN
SHOWN HERE.

WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALMOST
DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  SINCE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD...A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 13.8N  28.8W    55 KT
12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.1N  30.7W    60 KT
24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.8N  33.2W    60 KT
36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.4N  35.6W    55 KT
48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N  38.0W    45 KT
72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  43.0W    40 KT
96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  47.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N  52.5W    35 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME




WTNT45 KNHC 032037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON
JOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AFTER LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
SINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A
NOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES BUT
THIS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN JOSEPHINE'S CURRENT APPEARANCE.
IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE ENVIRONMENT GETS MORE
HOSTILE FROM HERE.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME
MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  ADDITIONALLY...SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT WILL
BE LEFT OF JOSEPHINE BY THAT TIME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

WITH JOSEPHINE'S FUTURE VERTICAL DEPTH NOW IN QUESTION...THE
STEERING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN.  IF THE CYCLONE CANNOT GENERATE
NEW CONVECTION...IT COULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE SHALLOW CURRENTS
AND MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFS.
CONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE CAN REGENERATE CONVECTION AND REMAIN A
DEEP SYSTEM...IT WOULD TEND TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
HAVE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEPPED
TRACK.  GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND ANTICIPATED
STRONG SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS RESULTING
IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 13.8N  29.9W    50 KT
12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N  31.8W    50 KT
24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.6N  34.1W    50 KT
36HR VT     05/0600Z 15.2N  36.5W    45 KT
48HR VT     05/1800Z 15.9N  38.8W    40 KT
72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  43.5W    35 KT
96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  48.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N  52.5W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME




000

WTNT45 KNHC 040241
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PATTERN WITH NO BANDING FEATURES AND ONLY A STRETCHED BURST
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVE COME DOWN FROM SAB/TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 45 KT IN LINE WITH THOSE ESTIMATES.  AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO SHEAR THE STORM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FACTOR TO MODULATE THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST.  THUS A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN SHEAR BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT
THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN AND I'D PREFER TO SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/10. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IF JOSEPHINE BECAME A STRONGER
SYSTEM...IT WOULD PROBABLY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DEEPER STEERING CURRENT LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER...
I'M GOING TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS REASONING OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING WEAKER AND BEING STEERED BY THE MORE SHALLOW CURRENTS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0300Z 13.9N  30.7W    45 KT
12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  32.5W    45 KT
24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N  34.9W    40 KT
36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.0N  37.2W    40 KT
48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.5N  39.5W    35 KT
72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N  44.0W    30 KT
96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N  48.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  53.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000

WTNT45 KNHC 040836
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT
AND T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CONVECTION...THEN JOSEPHINE WILL
BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. JOSEPHINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE
...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A POLEWARD JOG AT DAYS 3 AND
4...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A LITTLE
MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH JOSEPHINE IS EXPERIENCING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT...THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
MODERATE DIFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW THAT IS SITUATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JOSEPHINE AND MAJOR
HURRICANE IKE. THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH JOSEPHINE AND IKE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AFTER WHICH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL AND
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS
SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BY HOLDING THE
INTENSITY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
JOSEPHINE REMAINS NEAR OR SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY DAYS 4 AND
5...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK SHEAR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE EVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0900Z 14.2N  31.3W    50 KT
12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N  32.9W    50 KT
24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.0N  35.0W    50 KT
36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N  37.1W    50 KT
48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  39.1W    50 KT
72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N  42.8W    50 KT
96HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  47.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N  51.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000

WTNT45 KNHC 041433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0754 UTC SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING 50 KT
WIND.  HOWEVER...THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME
HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF SMALL AREAS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.  BASED ON
THIS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT JOSEPHINE HAS WEAKENED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOSEPHINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A NORTHWARD JOG AT
72-96 HR...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS.  THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE UKMET BEING THE
SLOWEST...THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE FASTEST...AND THE OTHER
MODELS IN BETWEEN.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED
BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR WHILE JOSEPHINE
MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ON THIS
BASIS... THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
WEAKENING...THEN MAINTAINS A 40 KT INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HR.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE TO
CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THIS.  ON THE BASIS THAT THE
SHEAR DECREASES AS JOSEPHINE REACHES WARMER WATERS...THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL... ALTHOUGH IT IS ABOVE ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT SHIFOR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.5N  32.2W    45 KT
12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.9N  33.5W    40 KT
24HR VT     05/1200Z 15.3N  35.2W    40 KT
36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.8N  36.7W    40 KT
48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.4N  38.3W    40 KT
72HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N  42.0W    40 KT
96HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N  46.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 21.5N  50.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000

WTNT45 KNHC 042032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

JOSEPHINE CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT IS VOID OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  INDEED...THE ONLY
CONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ARE A FEW CELLS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35-40 KT WINDS SEEN IN AN ASCAT
PASS NEAR 12Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9.  AGAIN...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOSEPHINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A NORTHWARD JOG AT
72-96 HR...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
DIRECTION.  THE BAMD...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF CALL FOR A
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE UKMET...GFS...AND BAMS ARE AT THE
OTHER EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
UKMET AND BAMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHETHER THE SHEAR
OVER JOSEPHINE WILL LET UP.  THE GFS FORECASTS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 48 HR...WHILE THE UKMET FORECAST A
RATHER HOSTILE LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.  IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER FOR
60 HR BEFORE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES START INCREASING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING...THEN HOLDING
JOSEPHINE AT 35 KT THROUGH 72 HR.  THEREAFTER...IF THE GFS/
SHIPS MODELS ARE CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR DECREASING...SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...FAVORED
BY THE HWRF AND GFDN...IS THAT JOSEPHINE COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT PERSIST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 14.6N  33.2W    40 KT
12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.9N  34.4W    35 KT
24HR VT     05/1800Z 15.3N  35.9W    35 KT
36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.8N  37.5W    35 KT
48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  39.3W    35 KT
72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N  43.0W    35 KT
96HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  47.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 22.0N  50.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT45 KNHC 050244
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A STAIR STEPPED FASHION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS BUT A 12 HR AVERAGE YIELDS 290/09.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER
THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECASTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET...
GFS...MODELS KEEP JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BUT STILL LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.  WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SSTS FALL ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK... SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IF
JOSEPHINE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE ENVIRONMENT
COULD BECOME MORE  FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER JOSEPHINE
AND THE SSTS RISE ALONG THE FORECAST.  STILL...NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JOSEPHINE WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOWS A LITTLE
RESTRENGTHENING AT DAYS 3-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 15.1N  33.8W    40 KT
12HR VT     05/1200Z 15.4N  34.9W    40 KT
24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.8N  36.3W    35 KT
36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N  37.9W    35 KT
48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N  39.8W    35 KT
72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  44.0W    40 KT
96HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  48.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  51.0W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME



000

WTNT45 KNHC 050859
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT AND IS DERIVED FROM A
BLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE SHEAR PATTERN.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRODUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING IN TANDEM TO THE WEST.  CONSEQUENTLY...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3.
AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH
WILL FILL ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE SHEAR CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT.  IN FACT...THE UKMET ACTUALLY INDICATES AN
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM AROUND DAY 5 JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A WEAKENED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH.  A 0422Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
ESTIMATED AT 305/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN FURTHER DURING WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE HWRF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING AND TURNS JOSEPHINE MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A REESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE WHICH MAY TURN JOSEPHINE BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 15.7N  34.3W    45 KT
12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N  35.2W    45 KT
24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.8N  36.6W    45 KT
36HR VT     06/1800Z 17.8N  38.5W    40 KT
48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  40.6W    40 KT
72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  44.5W    40 KT
96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  47.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.5N  50.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB




WTNT45 KNHC 051436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON JOSEPHINE
THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF A BLOW-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
1000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH FARTHER SEPARATED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. ACCORDINGLY...
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. JOSEPHINE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN TANDEM WITH
JOSEPHINE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
RESTRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 12 HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/7...BUT IT HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERED BY A
BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 15.8N  34.8W    40 KT
12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.2N  35.8W    35 KT
24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  37.5W    35 KT
36HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  39.4W    35 KT
48HR VT     07/1200Z 19.2N  41.5W    35 KT
72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  45.0W    35 KT
96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  48.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  51.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE



000

WTNT45 KNHC 052033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST IN
TANDEM WITH THE STORM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
JOSEPHINE MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THESE SCENARIOS HOLDING JOSEPHINE STEADY STATE. 

JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 16.0N  35.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  36.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.3N  37.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  39.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  41.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  45.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  48.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  51.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
 

WTNT45 KNHC 060252
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
 
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ABOUT 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE...THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS. IN MOST CASES A SYSTEM LIKE THIS
WOULD NORMALLY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME CHANCE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR NOW. ADVISORIES COULD BE
DISCONTINUED SOON...BUT COULD ALWAYS BE RESTARTED AGAIN IF THE
SYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES DOWN THE ROAD.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF JOSEPHINE ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. DYNAMICALLY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR
ANOTHER 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
WEAKENING...ON THE VERGE OF A REMNANT LOW...THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AND THE FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS SHOW JOSEPHINE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 4-5
DAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING SURVIVES THE
NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE ACCEPTING THIS SOLUTION.
 
JOSEPHINE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT 295/6. WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 16.3N  35.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.8N  36.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.6N  38.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.7N  40.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.8N  43.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  46.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  49.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  52.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 

WTNT45 KNHC 060903
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
...CORRECTED FOR HEADER...

JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS
ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW.

WITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE...
REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
LIKELY.  HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE
SHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S
REMNANTS.  DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE
DISSIPATED.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.8N  36.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  38.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  40.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  42.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.9N  44.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  48.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 

WTNT45 KNHC 052033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL
OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST IN
TANDEM WITH THE STORM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
JOSEPHINE MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THESE SCENARIOS HOLDING JOSEPHINE STEADY STATE.

JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 16.0N  35.2W    35 KT
12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  36.2W    35 KT
24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.3N  37.9W    30 KT
36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  39.7W    30 KT
48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  41.9W    30 KT
72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  45.5W    30 KT
96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  48.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  51.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE



000

WTNT45 KNHC 060252
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ABOUT 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE...THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS. IN MOST CASES A SYSTEM LIKE THIS
WOULD NORMALLY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME CHANCE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR NOW. ADVISORIES COULD BE
DISCONTINUED SOON...BUT COULD ALWAYS BE RESTARTED AGAIN IF THE
SYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES DOWN THE ROAD.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF JOSEPHINE ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. DYNAMICALLY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR
ANOTHER 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
WEAKENING...ON THE VERGE OF A REMNANT LOW...THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AND THE FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS SHOW JOSEPHINE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 4-5
DAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING SURVIVES THE
NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE ACCEPTING THIS SOLUTION.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT 295/6. WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 16.3N  35.8W    30 KT
12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.8N  36.9W    30 KT
24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.6N  38.7W    25 KT
36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.7N  40.9W    25 KT
48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.8N  43.0W    25 KT
72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  46.5W    30 KT
96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  49.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  52.0W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA



000

WTNT45 KNHC 060903
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

...CORRECTED FOR HEADER...

JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS
ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW.

WITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE...
REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
LIKELY.  HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE
SHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S
REMNANTS.  DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE
DISSIPATED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.8N  36.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  38.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  40.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  42.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.9N  44.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  48.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB



000

