WTNT42 KNHC 251815
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 KT...AND TO CHANGE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
FOR HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1800Z 15.8N  70.5W    50 KT
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    60 KT
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    65 KT
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    70 KT
72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT
96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 252036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY...THE
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT.  USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY...STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH LAND.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/12. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO
GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE
LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST. NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS...AND ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.

THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/2100Z 16.3N  71.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.2N  72.0W    60 KT
24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N  73.3W    65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.4N  74.4W    65 KT
48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.2N  75.5W    65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.3N  77.5W    55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     29/1800Z 22.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     30/1800Z 23.0N  81.0W    50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 260258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY
FIND A HURRICANE.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL.  GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.  AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS
WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT...WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC...IS AT LEAST
DIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR.  THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES
MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT.  BOTH THE
GFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE
GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT
IN A SLOWING OF GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE LEFT.
EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP GUSTAV
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT MOST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IS EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0300Z 16.6N  71.4W    60 KT
12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  72.6W    65 KT
24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N  73.9W    80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.3N  75.1W    75 KT
48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.8N  76.2W    80 KT
72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  78.0W    75 KT
96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N  80.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 23.0N  83.5W    75 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT42 KNHC 260849
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 90 KT...PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 76 KT...AND A RECENT
ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 984 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING
PATTERN WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND
GUSTAV IS LIKELY NOT DONE INTENSIFYING BEFORE IT PASSES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY.  SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN 24 HR
DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EXTREMELY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS
FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN
EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE.  MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0900Z 17.2N  71.9W    75 KT
12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N  72.9W    85 KT
24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.8N  74.3W    75 KT
36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.2N  75.6W    80 KT
48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.4N  76.9W    85 KT
72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N  79.3W    90 KT
96HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  82.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     31/0600Z 23.0N  85.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA




WTNT42 KNHC 261445
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT...AND AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT.
THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.  A
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE OF GUSTAV DURING THE LAST AIRCRAFT
PASS THROUGH THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...FOUND A SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 982 MB...BUT WITH 12 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE...SO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SLIGHTLY LOWER.  THE AIRCRAFT
AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
VERY SMALL EYE...HOWEVER THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8.  TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER FLORIDA.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV'S PASSAGE OVER
LAND...AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE
MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.  THEREAFTER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH FAVORS
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL...
BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF.

ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO
POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.9N  72.4W    80 KT
12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.6N  73.3W    75 KT
24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N  74.6W    80 KT
36HR VT     28/0000Z 19.3N  75.9W    85 KT
48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.4N  77.3W    90 KT
72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  80.2W   100 KT
96HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  83.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N  87.0W   105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 262040
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...ON
WHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT...INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC.  A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED
INLAND...HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT.  SO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB.  IN ANY
EVENT...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING
STRENGTH.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THEREFORE GUSTAV
IS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE
RECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE
LITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9.  THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING
PATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND OVERALL THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.  THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/2100Z 18.4N  73.2W    65 KT
12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.9N  74.0W    75 KT
24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N  75.2W    80 KT
36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N  76.6W    85 KT
48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.6N  78.0W    90 KT
72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.3N  81.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     30/1800Z 22.5N  85.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     31/1800Z 25.5N  88.5W   105 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 270306
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING...RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CUBAN
RADAR SITE AT GRAN PIEDRA DEPICTED A NICE DOUGHNUT SHAPED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME BOTH RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE EYE FEATURE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
RAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED FEATURE. THEREFORE...GUSTAV HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE INTENSITY LOWERED TO 60
KT...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES DERIVED AT 00Z. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY
RESTRICTED BUT IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT... AND IS
EXCELLENT IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST.  THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTAV
TO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUOS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAY A MORE PROMINENT ROLE THAN
INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND ECMWF.

GUSTAV IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
WHICH IS INDUCING SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS ALSO STRONGLY DIFLUENT...WHICH SHOULD AID THE
RE-INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ONCE GUSTAV CLEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF HAITI. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY BRINGING GUSTAV TO JUST BELOW
CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...POSSIBLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0300Z 18.6N  73.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.9N  74.5W    65 KT
24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  75.7W    75 KT
36HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N  77.1W    85 KT
48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.4N  78.5W    95 KT
72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N  82.2W   110 KT
96HR VT     31/0000Z 23.0N  86.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N  89.5W   110 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN




WTNT42 KNHC 270843
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT. LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IS
FORESEEN UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HAITI. THEREAFTER...A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS
NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...AND
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO
THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN
GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH RECENTLY BUT AN AVERAGED OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 300/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS LIKELY TODAY AS THE STORM BUMPS INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. GUSTAV SHOULD THEN BE STEERED
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON...TAKING THE
STORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0900Z 18.6N  73.5W    50 KT
12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N  74.3W    50 KT
24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.6W    60 KT
36HR VT     28/1800Z 19.2N  77.2W    70 KT
48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N  78.8W    80 KT
72HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  82.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     31/0600Z 23.5N  86.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA




WTNT42 KNHC 271435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE LAST AERIAL
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT...BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR
THAT INTENSITY BY NOW.   CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM
HAITI.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH DAY 3.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5... SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTWITHSTANDING...THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.  INDEED...IF ONE
LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS
PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT
GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1...CATEGORY 2...OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.  HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...290/4...APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING.  A 500 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEGINNING
AROUND DAY 3...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5.  ONE SHOULD
NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE
TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/1500Z 18.8N  74.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  74.8W    55 KT
24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N  76.0W    60 KT
36HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N  77.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  79.4W    80 KT
72HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  83.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     31/1200Z 24.5N  86.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 28.5N  88.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME




WTNT42 KNHC 272039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999
MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...LIKELY
TONIGHT.  STILL...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/03.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN 2-3 DAYS...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BY DAY 5...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN
A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV'S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5...AND IT
IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/2100Z 19.1N  74.4W    45 KT
12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.2W    50 KT
24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.2N  76.6W    60 KT
36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  78.1W    70 KT
48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N  79.8W    80 KT
72HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W   100 KT
96HR VT     31/1800Z 25.5N  86.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 28.5N  88.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 280250
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z.  DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE
41 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX
AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION.  A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE...ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED
WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES
MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND
GFS...WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL...AND IS JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT.

GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE
TERRAIN OF HAITI.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST.   IN ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS...HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER
THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER
RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY...BUT IS
OTHERWISE SIMILAR...AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY
OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES...AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY
INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0300Z 18.8N  75.4W    40 KT
12HR VT     28/1200Z 18.8N  76.5W    45 KT
24HR VT     29/0000Z 18.9N  78.0W    50 KT
36HR VT     29/1200Z 19.4N  79.5W    60 KT
48HR VT     30/0000Z 20.1N  81.0W    70 KT
72HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  84.5W    85 KT
96HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 29.0N  89.5W    95 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT42 KNHC 280904
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 10 MB
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE
STORM...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THE WINDS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
45 KT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA MAY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY RAISED FROM EARLIER. THEREAFTER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO BE NEAR THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV...WHICH WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A POWERFUL
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 215/7.  THE REFORMATION OF
THE CENTER HAS CAUSED A BIG SOUTHWARD CHANGE IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST...AND GUSTAV IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST OF JAMAICA.  THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THIS SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTAV TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE
TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE
STEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LONGER-TERM...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0900Z 17.8N  75.6W    45 KT
12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  77.0W    55 KT
24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N  78.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  80.3W    65 KT
48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  82.0W    75 KT
72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N  85.5W    95 KT
96HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  89.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  91.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA




WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1130Z 17.8N  75.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  76.1W    65 KT
24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N  78.3W    65 KT
36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  80.3W    70 KT
48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  82.0W    75 KT
72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N  85.5W    95 KT
96HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  89.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  91.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA




WTNT42 KNHC 281500
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  MY SENSE
FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...PERHAPS 265/4.  IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER
WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH
COAST...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...ALL MODELS
FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS.  THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK
GUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS.  THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MINORITY.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH
THE CONSENSUS.  RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL
TRACK.

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE
SCENE THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY
TIME TODAY.  AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...FAVORING INTENSIFICATION.  ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW
LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE WATERS WILL BE
WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1500Z 17.9N  76.1W    60 KT
12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.9N  77.1W    65 KT...NEAR JAMAICA
24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N  79.0W    70 KT
36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.1N  80.8W    80 KT
48HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N  82.6W    95 KT
72HR VT     31/1200Z 23.5N  86.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     01/1200Z 27.0N  89.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W   100 KT...NEAR COAST OF LA

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 282100
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA
AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE
CENTER NEAR THAT TIME.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT
GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE INTENSITY...BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH
TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT
SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND.  A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND...BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  DUE TO THE VERY WARM
WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER...SO GUSTAV
COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS FORECAST
BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY
CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5.  A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.  TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE
WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER...BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH
AND FORWARD SPEED...BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A
MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT.  DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS...THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5
DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.  IN FACT...TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE
FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF LOUISIANA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 18.1N  76.6W    60 KT
12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.4N  77.8W    55 KT...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.1N  79.7W    70 KT
36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N  81.7W    80 KT
48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  83.6W    95 KT
72HR VT     31/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W   100 KT
96HR VT     01/1800Z 28.0N  89.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  91.5W    85 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 290301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB.  GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6...AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS.  GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR.  THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  AFTER 96
HR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD...AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV.  THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR....WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK.  SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS...IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 17.8N  77.3W    60 KT
12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.3N  78.6W    60 KT
24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.1N  80.4W    75 KT
36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.4N  82.3W    90 KT
48HR VT     31/0000Z 21.9N  84.2W   100 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT     01/0000Z 25.5N  87.5W   110 KT
96HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  92.5W    90 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT42 KNHC 290853
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT
HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF
GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE
OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED
EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN
STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE
BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE
LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND
GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION
LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.

AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY
QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV
AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.   ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 18.1N  78.1W    55 KT
12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.6N  79.3W    60 KT
24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.6N  81.0W    75 KT
36HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N  82.8W    90 KT
48HR VT     31/0600Z 22.7N  84.6W   100 KT
72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.4N  88.1W   110 KT
96HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  91.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 30.0N  93.0W    85 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA



000

WTNT42 KNHC 291503
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100
UTC...WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB...GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW
THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA
FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER.  THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO
STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.  THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV
CROSSES CUBA...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND.  CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A
LITTLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO
THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND IS HEADED FOR
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE
MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND
STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW
LESS OF THAT RIDGING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE
EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE
TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 18.6N  78.8W    55 KT
12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N  80.0W    70 KT
24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.8N  81.8W    80 KT
36HR VT     31/0000Z 22.6N  83.8W    95 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
48HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.7W   105 KT
72HR VT     01/1200Z 27.5N  89.0W   105 KT
96HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  93.0W    60 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 292100
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO
FORM...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM...AND TO SOME DEPTH
BENEATH THE SURFACE...SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA.  PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT
LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH...AND ALL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT
96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE
THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS.  THERE ARE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS.  THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  MODELS WITH
THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
GUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS.  OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FARTHER EAST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DUE TO THE NOTABLE
MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN
IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 19.2N  79.7W    65 KT
12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N  80.9W    75 KT
24HR VT     30/1800Z 21.7N  82.8W    90 KT...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
36HR VT     31/0600Z 23.4N  84.8W   100 KT
48HR VT     31/1800Z 25.2N  86.8W   110 KT
72HR VT     01/1800Z 28.0N  90.0W   105 KT
96HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  92.5W    85 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  94.0W    55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 300301
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING...AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM.  RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA...BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD.  THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA...MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION.  GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR.  THUS...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT.  THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE
HWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL
129 KT.  BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0300Z 19.5N  80.4W    70 KT
12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.6N  81.8W    85 KT
24HR VT     31/0000Z 22.3N  83.7W   100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N  85.6W   105 KT
48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.7N  87.6W   115 KT
72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   110 KT
96HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  93.0W    80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/0000Z 31.5N  94.0W    45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT42 KNHC 300858
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100
KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL
LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.
THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH
COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 20.2N  81.3W    95 KT
12HR VT     30/1800Z 21.2N  82.7W   105 KT
24HR VT     31/0600Z 22.9N  84.6W   110 KT
36HR VT     31/1800Z 24.6N  86.4W   115 KT
48HR VT     01/0600Z 26.5N  88.3W   110 KT
72HR VT     02/0600Z 29.5N  91.5W   100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  93.0W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/0600Z 31.0N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA




WTNT42 KNHC 301500
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING RATE
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY RECON HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT VALUE DOWN TO 954 MB.  THE BRIEF TIME GUSTAV WILL SPEND
OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD NOT WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE MUCH...AND ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT IS GREATEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 120 KT...VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS.  DESPITE THE IMPLIED WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS DUE TO FORECAST LANDFALL...NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST
WHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF...AND IT COULD REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV JOGGED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS NOT
YET CLEAR IF IT HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...BUT THE
LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/12.  THE STEERING
CURRENTS PUSHING GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD ARE GENERALLY WELL-DEFINED
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS A
STRONG BUT DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.  NONE OF
THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THEIR TRACK SOLUTION COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE.
THE SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE UKMET AND HWRF CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD JUST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS
JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION.  REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE
TRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1500Z 21.2N  82.1W   110 KT
12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W   105 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.4W   115 KT
36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.3W   120 KT
48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N  89.2W   110 KT
72HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  92.5W    65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     03/1200Z 31.5N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.  THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING
BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.  THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141
KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS
RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES.  THE AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.  NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN
MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH
96 HOURS.  GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
BEFORE CROSSING CUBA.  THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140
KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1800Z 21.6N  82.5W   125 KT
12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W   135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.4W   140 KT
36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.3W   135 KT
48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N  89.2W   125 KT
72HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  92.5W    80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     03/1200Z 31.5N  94.0W    50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 302059
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF GUSTAV HAD BEEN HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW OVER WATER
IN BETWEEN THAT ISLAND AND MAINLAND WESTERN CUBA.  AIRCRAFT FIXES
CONTINUE TO COME IN JUST ABOUT RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS GUSTAV HAS BEEN WOBBLING
SLIGHTLY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS RELATIVELY
WELL-ESTABLISHED AT 315/13...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HWRF...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE...HAVE
COME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN A
CONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED...HOWEVER...IN A
CONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST...ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE.  WHILE
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY
EXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...ALL OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO WEAKENING
STEERING CURRENTS...WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BY FORECASTING A DRAMATIC SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE RECON CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY FALL...WITH
THE MOST RECENT VALUE BEING 942 MB.  A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 143 KT
AT 700 MB WAS JUST REPORTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WHICH
SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 130 KT.  MODEST
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY AS GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
UNTIL 24 HOURS.  AFTER DEPARTING CUBA...THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL
LANDFALL.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
IN BOTH TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORMATS...DEPICT A RELATIVELY SIMILAR
RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS ALONG A WIDE
STRETCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  GIVEN THAT THESE VALUES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...AND CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK
TOWARD THE COAST...IT IS TIME TO ISSUE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 22.1N  82.9W   130 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 23.4N  84.4W   135 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 25.3N  86.5W   140 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 27.2N  88.6W   135 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 29.0N  90.7W   125 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  93.0W    70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  94.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N  96.0W    30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




WTNT42 KNHC 310308
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
HURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND...WITH THE EYE BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE
ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 13
KT...WITH 320/13 USED IN THIS PACKAGE.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING...WITH GUSTAV BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THEN BY
AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...CALLING FOR
GUSTAV TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV...WITH A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AT THAT
TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
12Z UKMET FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE
LOUISIANA COAST...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRED DESPITE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...
WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THE
SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE NEXT 18 HR...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AS GUSTAV MOVES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ON THE OCEAN SIDE...GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
THEN POSSIBLY PASS OVER A COUPLE OF COLD EDDIES NORTH OF 26N.  ALL
GUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24
HR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND
LOWER HEAT CONTENT...THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND.  DUE TO THE
VARIOUS FACTORS...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/0300Z 23.1N  83.8W   120 KT
12HR VT     31/1200Z 24.6N  85.3W   130 KT
24HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N  87.4W   135 KT
36HR VT     01/1200Z 28.3N  89.5W   130 KT
48HR VT     02/0000Z 29.8N  91.2W   120 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     03/0000Z 31.5N  93.0W    50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     04/0000Z 32.5N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/0000Z 32.5N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT42 KNHC 310857
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL
ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING
TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN
DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV
MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE
RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS
MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
320/14.  THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
WELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE
HURRICANE.  A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV
NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

BASED ON THIS FORECAST...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/0900Z 24.2N  85.0W   110 KT
12HR VT     31/1800Z 25.6N  86.3W   120 KT
24HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N  88.4W   125 KT
36HR VT     01/1800Z 29.1N  90.4W   115 KT...NEAR COAST
48HR VT     02/0600Z 30.5N  92.2W    75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     03/0600Z 31.7N  93.7W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER.  THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD.  SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL.  THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/1500Z 25.3N  86.0W   105 KT
12HR VT     01/0000Z 27.0N  87.7W   115 KT
24HR VT     01/1200Z 28.6N  89.7W   115 KT
36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.0N  91.5W    85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.1N  93.0W    50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     03/1200Z 32.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  95.9W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





WTNT42 KNHC 312052
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE RETURNING.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE
THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT.  ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE
VIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE
THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16
KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN
AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE
LOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER.  AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE
SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CYCLONE.  THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV
MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 26.4N  87.3W   100 KT
12HR VT     01/0600Z 27.9N  88.9W   110 KT
24HR VT     01/1800Z 29.4N  90.9W   100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     02/0600Z 30.7N  92.7W    60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1800Z 32.0N  96.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT42 KNHC 010257
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA.  DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH.  THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH.  NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY.  AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0300Z 27.3N  88.1W   100 KT
12HR VT     01/1200Z 28.6N  89.9W   105 KT
24HR VT     02/0000Z 30.1N  91.9W    85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     02/1200Z 31.1N  93.3W    50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     03/0000Z 31.8N  94.3W    30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     04/0000Z 32.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     05/0000Z 32.0N  95.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



000

WTNT42 KNHC 010915
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
SLIGHTLY AND...BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND
MEASUREMENTS...100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY.  WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED
EARLIER.  IN FACT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT
AN EYEWALL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND
A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE.  ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
RAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES.  BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/14. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND THEREFORE GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW
LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW...I.E. AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.
THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THE TRACK MODELS BECOME HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  IF GUSTAV
REMAINED A VERTICALLY-COHERENT CYCLONE IT WOULD PROBABLY RESPOND TO
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
PART OF GUSTAV WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN THE EAST TEXAS AREA.  THAT IS
BASICALLY WHAT WE ARE INDICATING IN THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
WHICH SHOWS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS SLOWING TO A CRAWL IN DAYS 3 TO
5.  SUCH SLOW MOTION WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
INLAND FLOODING.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 28.4N  89.5W   100 KT
12HR VT     01/1800Z 29.5N  91.1W   100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     02/0600Z 30.7N  92.8W    55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     02/1800Z 31.4N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     03/0600Z 31.8N  94.7W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N  96.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




WTNT42 KNHC 011454
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE
BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR.  HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND
THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART
OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT.

GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH
LOUISIANA MARSHES.  A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS
THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND.  AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS
LIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND.
THUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HR.

THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 29.2N  90.8W    95 KT
12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.3N  92.4W    70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.3N  93.8W    40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.9N  94.6W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     03/1200Z 32.4N  95.3W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     05/1200Z 33.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT42 KNHC 012052
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST
NORTH OF LAFAYETTE.  WSR-88D DATA FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES
SHOW THAT THE EYE SEEN AT LANDFALL HAS FILLED AND BEEN REPLACED BY
A SOLID RAIN MASS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT DOPPLER WINDS OF 90-100 KT ALOFT SUGGESTS
THERE SURFACE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 70 KT.  GUSTAV IS NOW FAR
ENOUGH INLAND THAT IT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/14.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HR...WITH MORE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS GUSTAV KEEPS A VIABLE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 30.4N  92.0W    70 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 31.2N  93.2W    50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     02/1800Z 32.1N  94.3W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     03/0600Z 32.6N  94.9W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     03/1800Z 33.0N  95.4W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  95.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  94.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT42 KNHC 020256
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS
EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.  RECENT
MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE
BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT.  THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT
50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM.  GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY...
AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE FORWARD MOTION OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN MORE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE GUSTAV'S CIRCULATION WILL BECOME
ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.  THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS
GUSTAV TO BECOME MERGE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 5
DAYS...IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM GUSTAV
NOW SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0300Z 31.1N  92.7W    50 KT
12HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  93.7W    35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     03/0000Z 32.7N  94.6W    25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     03/1200Z 33.1N  95.2W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     04/0000Z 33.7N  95.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     05/0000Z 35.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     06/0000Z 36.0N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN



000

WTNT42 KNHC 020839
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER LOUISIANA INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS
WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN
DOWN BUT AT A MORE GRADUAL RATE..IN GENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE
EXPONENTIAL INLAND DECAY MODEL.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GUSTAV
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MERGE WITH
THAT FEATURE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THEREFORE THE FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 315/9.  ADDITIONAL DECELERATION IS LIKELY
AS THE STEERING CURRENT WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM SEVERE LOCAL STORMS...THE THREAT FROM GUSTAV HAS SHIFTED
TO HEAVY RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED INLAND FLOODING.  THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON GUSTAV FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0900Z 31.7N  93.4W    30 KT
12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.4N  94.2W    25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  94.8W    25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  95.2W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     04/0600Z 34.1N  95.2W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     05/0600Z 35.0N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT     06/0600Z 35.5N  92.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000

